Comment by Riaz Haq 4 hours ago

Pakistan’s Great Game

By Christophe Jaffrelot

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/pakistans-great-ga...

Conclusion: A Temporary Return to Favor or a Structural Turning Point?
History has accustomed us to seeing Pakistan return to the forefront of the international stage in a more or less fleeting manner. In 1980, General Zia, who had been universally despised following the 1977 coup, suddenly became acceptable again following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In 2001, General Musharraf, who had also been a pariah since his forceful seizure of power in 1999, experienced the same windfall following the September 11 attacks. In 2026, Pakistan appears useful once again, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace. This puts it back in the role of mediator that it has also filled in the past between the United States and China.
In 2026, Pakistan appears useful once again, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace.
Each time, these glorious episodes were very short-lived and came to an end due to criticism of the Pakistani regime’s authoritarianism - with the military always remaining in power, even when civilians are in the forefront; its ties to Islamists accused of terrorist activities - particularly in India; or accusations of nuclear proliferation. Will the same be true tomorrow, once the war in Iran is over and the United States no longer needs Pakistan?

Everything will, of course, depend on the outcome of the conflict and the role Pakistan plays in resolving it-for it will be harder to send Islamabad back home if the world owes it something resembling peace.

India’s ability to isolate Pakistan-the strategy Narendra Modi has pursued for more than a decade-is another important variable, though its significance may be undermined by New Delhi’s drift toward authoritarianism and ethnocracy, as well as by the economic and social crisis threatening the country.

A more significant factor entering the equation relates to regional balances of power: Pakistan will continue to serve as a "net security provider" for Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia if those countries continue to fear the rise of Israel - a potential regional hegemon - and if they doubt Washington’s intentions, or even its mere reliability. There is no doubt that Pakistan itself will do everything in its power to prevent Israel from asserting itself on the regional stage and to gain influence over Iran-which is what the Israeli-American plan for regime change in Iran might have entailed. At the very least, faced with the risk of Israeli hegemony based on force and repeated military interventions, Pakistan could emerge as the architect of a resistance front bringing together not only Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, but also Iran.

Alongside these hypothetical scenarios, one thing is certain: Pakistan has reached a turning point through the recognition of its military capabilities, as reflected in the mutual defense agreement it signed with Saudi Arabia. This point of no return is largely due to the close ties it has forged with China, to which Pakistan owes a significant portion of its strike capability. While the relationship between Pakistan and the United States remains subject to uncertainty due to its tactical nature, the relationship between Pakistan and China is strategic in nature. Since Iran is an important partner of China, in the short term, Pakistan will be all the more inclined to resist attempts to destabilize its neighbor-which it has feared from the very first day of the war anyway. While Islamabad welcomes Iran’s weakening and the setback to its nuclear program, maintaining the current regime is the lesser of two evils (especially since Tehran no longer trusts New Delhi as much as it once did).

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