China-Pakistan: Beijing to "Further Deepen and Expand" Ties, Support Pak "Financial Stability"

Top Chinese officials have committed to “further deepen and expand” ties with Pakistan at meetings at the highest levels between the military and civilian leaderships of the two nations.  Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang assured  Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of his country's support for Pakistan's "financial stability".  Also in the news this week is a Chinese government commission report recommending the construction of a 3,000 kilometer long railway link between China and Pakistan at an estimated cost of $57.7 billion, making it the most expensive infrastructure project in the Chinese-sponsored Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to date.  The railroad will connect Pakistan's Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea with the western Chinese city of Kashgar in Xinjiang province. This appears to be a part of the Chinese response to the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy which Beijing sees threatening its interests in the region. Will India allow itself be used as a US proxy against China? Will the US-China rivalry force India and Pakistan to choose sides as it plays out in South Asia? Will China's assistance now push Pakistan further into the Chinese camp? 

US-India Ties:

US President Joseph R. Biden is pursuing close strategic ties with Indian Prime Minister Modi. The false rhetoric of "democracy" and "shared values" is often used to disguise Washington's true intent to use India to counter China's rise as a global superpower. Meanwhile, China with its long land border with India has warned New Delhi that it "will be the biggest victim" of the US proxy war against China.  In a recent Op Ed in Global Times, considered a mouthpiece of the Beijing government, Professor Guo Bingyun  has wrote as follows: 

"Inducing some countries to become US' proxies has been Washington's tactic to maintain its world hegemony since the end of WWII. It does not care about the gains and losses of these proxies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a proxy war instigated by the US. The US ignores Ukraine's ultimate fate, but by doing so, the US can realize the expansion of NATO, further control the EU, erode the strategic advantages of Western European countries in climate politics and safeguard the interests of US energy groups. It is killing four birds with one stone......If another armed conflict between China and India over the border issue breaks out, the US and its allies will be the biggest beneficiaries, while India will be the biggest victim. Since the Cold War, proxies have always been the biggest victims in the end". 

US-Pakistan Ties: 

After assuming office as President of the United States, Joe Biden called many world leaders. But he did not bother to call then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, nor has he made a call to the current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This has sent a clear signal to Islamabad that Washington doesn't see it as important.  This prompted Brookings' Bruce Reidel and Madiha Afzal to write: "Biden did not call Khan while he was prime minister. Last fall, we argued he should. Khan in turn declined to attend Biden’s Summit for Democracy. The White House should call Shahbaz Sharif". 

Madiha Afzal of Brookings Institution again reminded Biden this year that "Pakistan, the fifth-largest country in the world and a nuclear-armed nation, ought to be seen by the United States on its own terms and not through the prism of its neighbors. A cold shoulder risks pushing Pakistan further toward China — which is neither an inevitable nor desirable outcome for the United States".  

CPEC and BRI

CPEC Transforming Pakistan: 

Back in 2018, former US Ambassador to Pakistan Richard G. Olson wrote in  a New York Times Op Ed titled "How Not to Engage With Pakistan" that "(CPEC's) magnitude and its transformation of parts of Pakistan dwarf anything the United States has ever undertaken".  Olson went on to warn the Trump Administration that "Without Pakistani cooperation, our (US) army in Afghanistan risks becoming a beached whale". Among the parts of Pakistan transformed by China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are some of the least developed regions in Balochistan and Sindh, specifically Gwadar and Thar Desert. 

Source: China Daily

Pakistan's Economic Crisis:

Some blame Pakistan's current balance of payments crisis on Chinese debt taken on to fund CPEC projects. The evidence does not support this. The fact is that Pakistan failed to grow its exports while its imports boomed for over 5 years on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's watch from 2013-2018. It forced Pakistan to seek an IMF bailout which came with its own tough conditions to compel economic reforms and greater fiscal discipline. Geopolitics has also played a role in it. The Ukraine War pushed the energy and other commodity prices higher, exacerbating Pakistan's trade deficits. At the same time, the Biden administration has shown little support for Pakistan's bailout by the IMF.  China's latest commitment to support "Pakistan's financial stability" will help, pushing Pakistan further into the Chinese camp. 

Here's a Wall Street Journal video on US-China Rivalry and Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/wvw-85CC1t4

http://www.youtube.com/embed/wvw-85CC1t4"; title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>" height="315" src="https://img1.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" width="560" style="cursor: move; background-color: #b2b2b2;" />

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Comment by Riaz Haq on June 2, 2023 at 4:35pm

Interview: India’s exaggerated value and the danger of S Jaishankar’s ‘new world order’ posturing


https://scroll.in/article/1049569/interview-indias-exaggerated-valu...

“the US already has other military partners like Japan and Australia, whereas India doesn’t really have anyone else that can help balance against China. Our value to the US is being partly exaggerated”


Rajesh Rajagopalan, author and professor of International Politics at JNU, says we are living in a bipolar age and it is dangerous for India to think otherwise.
Rohan Venkataramakrishnan
18 hours ago


“I think the economics of the world, the politics of the world, and the demographic of the world is making the world more multipolar.”

“The world is moving towards greater multi-polarity through steady and continuous re-balancing.”

“The Indo-Pacific is at the heart of the multipolarity and rebalancing that characterises contemporary changes.”

“The United States is moving towards greater realism both about itself and the world. It is adjusting to multipolarity and rebalancing and re-examining the balance between its domestic revival and commitments abroad.”

Those are all comments by Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar over the last few years. Indeed, Jaishankar is a big votary of the concept of multipolarity – the idea that the world is not dominated by just one power (the United States), or two (the US and China, just as it was the US and the United Soviet Socialist Republic during the Cold War), but is instead now seeing a global order with a number of powers that are somewhat equally matched in terms of economic and military capacity and influence.

Jaishankar sometimes speaks of the need for establishing a multipolar world. And sometimes his comments seems to suggest the world is already multipolar or will soon be there.



Not everyone agrees. Stephen G Brooks and William C Wohlforth, in a Foreign Affairs article in April , argued that multipolarity is a “myth”.



Brooks and Wolworth argue instead for “partial unipolarity”, in part because Chinese military power remains “regional”.

Rajesh Rajagopalan, professor of International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University and author of Second Strike: Arguments about Nuclear War in South Asia, thinks the answer is clearer: We are living in a bipolar age. And it is dangerous for India to think otherwise.

I spoke to Rajagopalan about multipolarity vs bipolarity, why he thinks that Jaishankar describing the world as multipolar is problematic even if it is a purely rhetorical tactic, and what he made of Ashley Tellis’ much discussed piece from earlier this month – with the controversial headline, “America’s Bad Bet on India” – which argues that the US should not expect India to side with it in a military confrontation with China, unless its own security is directly threatened.



To start off, how do you read Jaishankar and India’s articulation of a multipolar world, either as an aspiration or as a reality?

I’ll start with the reality: Of course, it is not [a multipolar world].

There are different ways of defining polarity. Academics by and large look at it as either unipolar world or a transition to a bipolar word. Some argue that the world may be bipolar in the Indo-Pacific region because of China’s power there, but not bipolar in a global systemic sense. Since this is a peaceful period – not marked by war – it’s very hard to identify the boundary between unipolar and bipolar. But my sense as an analyst is that the world is already bipolar, because the way polarity is measured is purely in terms of material capacities, and on this, clearly China has the wealth and the intention.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 2, 2023 at 9:55pm

Blinken calls China ‘most serious long-term’ threat to world order - POLITICO


https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/26/blinken-biden-china-policy...

“China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it,” Blinken said. “Beijing’s vision would move us away from the universal values that have sustained so much of the world’s progress over the past 75 years.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 14, 2023 at 7:57am

Pakistan: Don’t ask us to choose between the US and China


https://www.politico.eu/article/pakistan-choose-us-china-global-pow...

Pakistan’s Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar tells POLITICO emergence of two rival global power blocs is a threat.

Pakistan has enough problems — including escalating attacks by Taliban insurgents and a spiraling economic crisis — without the added headache of a new Cold War between China and the U.S.

In an interview with POLITICO, Pakistan’s Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar insisted Islamabad had no appetite to pick a side in the growing global rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

As a nuclear-armed heavyweight of 250 million people, Pakistan is one of the most closely watched front-line states in the contest for strategic influence in Asia. While Pakistan’s old Cold War partner Washington is increasingly turning its focus to cooperation with Islamabad’s arch-foe India, China has swooped in to extend its sway in Pakistan — particularly through giant infrastructure projects.

Khar insisted, however, that Islamabad was worried about the repercussions of an all-out rupture between the U.S. and China, which would present Pakistan with an unpalatably binary strategic choice. “We are highly threatened by this notion of splitting the world into two blocs,” Khar said on a visit to Brussels. “We are very concerned about this decoupling … Anything that splits the world further.”

She added: “We have a history of being in a close, collaborative mode with the U.S. We have no intention of leaving that. Pakistan also has the reality of being in a close, collaborative mode with China, and until China suddenly came to everyone’s threat perception, that was always the case.”

It’s clear why Pakistan still sees advantages to walking the strategic tightrope between the U.S. and China. Although U.S. officials have expressed frustration over Pakistan’s historic ties to the Taliban in Afghanistan — and have rowed back on military aid — Washington is still a significant military partner. Last year, the U.S. State Department approved the potential sale of $450 million worth of equipment to maintain Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets.

Simultaneously, Beijing is pledging to deepen military cooperation with Pakistan — partly to outflank the common enemy in India — and is delivering frigates to the Pakistani navy. China is also building roads, railways, hospitals and energy networks in its western neighbor. While these Chinese investments have boosted the country’s economic development, there are also downsides to going all in with China, with Beijing’s critics arguing that Pakistan has become overly indebted and financially dependent on China.


Khar grabbed headlines in April when a leaked memo appeared in the Wall Street Journal in which she was cited as warning that Pakistan’s instinct to preserve its partnership with the U.S. would harm what she deemed the country’s “real strategic” partnership with China.

She declined to comment on that leak, but took a more bullish line on continued American power in her interview in Brussels, saying the U.S. was unnecessarily fearful and defensive about being toppled from its plinth of global leadership, which she argued remained vital in areas such as healthcare, technology, trade and combating climate change.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 14, 2023 at 7:59am

Pakistan: Don’t ask us to choose between the US and China


https://www.politico.eu/article/pakistan-choose-us-china-global-pow...


“I don’t think the leadership role is being contested, until they start making other people question it by being reactive,” she said. “I believe that the West underestimates the value of its ideals, soft power,” she added, stressing Washington’s role as the world’s standard setter. China biggest selling point for Pakistan, she explained, was an economic model for lifting a huge population out of poverty.

Leverage — and the lack of it — in Kabul
Khar’s sharpest criticism of U.S. policy centered on Afghanistan, where she said restrictions intended to hobble the Taliban were backfiring, causing a humanitarian and security crisis, pushing many Afghans to “criminal activities, narcotics strategy and smuggling.”

A weakened Afghanistan is causing increased security problems for Pakistan, and the Taliban in Kabul are widely seen as supporting an expanding terror campaign waged by the Pakistani Taliban. Ironically, given the long history of Pakistan’s engagement with the Afghan Taliban, Islamabad is finding it difficult to exercise its influence and secure Kabul’s help in reining in the latest insurgency wave.

When the Afghan Taliban seized power in Kabul in 2021, Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Imran Khan celebrated their victory against “[American] slavery” and spy chief Faiz Hameed made a visit to Kabul and cheerily predicted “everything will be O.K.” Khar, who took office last year, said Khan had reacted “rather immaturely” and argued her government always knew “the leverage was over-projected.”

While the violence has put Pakistan’s soldiers and police on the front line of the fight against the Taliban at home, Khar said Islamabad was taking a highly diplomatic approach in seeking to win round the Taliban in Afghanistan, pursuing political engagement and focusing on economic development — rather than strong-arm tactics.

“Threatening anyone normally gets you worse results than the ones you started with. Even when it is exceptionally difficult to engage at a point when you think your red lines have not been taken seriously, we will still try the route of engagement.”

She firmly rejected the idea that any other country — either the U.S. or China — could play a role in helping Pakistan defeat the Taliban with military deployments. “When it comes to boots on the ground, we would welcome no one,” she said.

Pakistan is seeking bailout cash from the International Monetary Fund as the economy is hammered by blazing inflation and collapsing reserves. When asked whether she reckoned Washington was holding back on supporting Pakistan, partly to test whether China would step up and play a bigger role in ensuring the country’s stability, Khar replied: “I would be very unhappy if that were the case.”

No to navies
When it came to Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific region, she was wary of the naval dimensions of EU plans, an element favored by France. She was particularly hostile to any vision of an Indo-Pacific strategy that was dedicated to trying to contain Chinese power in tandem with working with India.

One of the leading fears of the U.S. has long been that China could use its investments in the port of Gwadar to build a naval foothold there, a move that would inflame tensions with India, and allow Beijing to project greater power in the Indian Ocean.

Khar said Europe should tread carefully in calibrating its plan for the region.

“I would be very concerned if it is exclusively or predominantly a military-based strategy, which will then confirm it is a containment strategy, it must not be a containment strategy,” she said of the EU’s Indo-Pacific agenda.

“[If it’s] a containment strategy of a certain country, which then courts a certain country that is a very belligerent neighbor to Pakistan, then instead of stabilizing the region, it is endangering the region.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 16, 2023 at 4:20pm

China Continues to Rescue Pakistan Amid Uncertain IMF Bailout


https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-continues-to-rescue-pakistan-amid...

Pakistan is pinning hopes that China will continue to ease its payments pressure by extending loans as concerns rise about the nation becoming the next emerging market to default.

The nation plans to repay a $300 million loan to China on Friday and another $1 billion loan will be rolled over by June 30, according to central bank Governor Jameel Ahmad. Pakistan also returned a separate $1 billion loan to China recently, he said.

The South Asian nation will receive the rolled over amount of $1 billion today or on Monday, according to the governor.

This comes as odds are rising the nation will fail to restart its loan program with the International Monetary Fund that expires at the end of June. The country has pledged to repay its debt and faces about $23 billion of external debt payments for the fiscal year that starts in July.

Dollar bonds due in April 2024 fell for the fifth straight day, with the notes quoted at about 50.21 cents on the dollar. The rupee was little changed at 287.2 rupees a dollar.

China has extended loans annually to Pakistan for many years. The governor expects debt of $2.3 billion to be rolled over in June after Chinese banks extended another $2 billion in March.

(Adds return of rolled over amount in third paragraph)

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 7, 2023 at 1:58pm

CPEC Results According to Wang Wenbin of China

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1677391745112477696?s=20

Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
CPEC projects are creating 192,000 jobs, generating 6,000MW of power, building 510 km (316 miles) of highways, and expanding the national transmission network by 886 km (550 miles),” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters in Beijing."


Associated Press of Pakistan: On July 5, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif while addressing a ceremony to mark a decade of signing of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), said that CPEC has been playing a key role in transforming Pakistan’s economic landscape. He also said that the mega project helped Pakistan progress in the region and beyond. What is your response?

Wang Wenbin: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a signature project of China-Pakistan cooperation in the new era, and an important project under the Belt and Road Initiative. This year marks the 10th anniversary of the launch of CPEC. After ten years of development, a “1+4” cooperation layout has been formed, with the CPEC at the center and Gwadar Port, transport infrastructure, energy and industrial cooperation being the four key areas. Projects under CPEC are flourishing all across Pakistan, attracting USD 25.4 billion of direct investment, creating 192,000 jobs, producing 6,000 megawatts of electric power, building 510 kilometers of highways and adding 886 kilometers to the core national transmission network. CPEC has made tangible contribution to the national development of Pakistan and connectivity in the region. China and Pakistan have also explored new areas for cooperation under the framework of CPEC, creating new highlights in cooperation on agriculture, science and technology, telecommunication and people’s wellbeing.

China stands ready to work with Pakistan to build on the past achievements and follow the guidance of the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries on promoting high-quality development of CPEC to boost the development of China and Pakistan and the region and bring more benefits to the people of all countries.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/2...

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 30, 2023 at 5:29pm

The mega undertaking (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC) has created nearly 200,000 direct local jobs, built more than 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) of highways and roads, and added 8,000 megawatts of electricity to the national grid, ending years of blackouts caused by power outages in the country of 230 million people.


https://www.voanews.com/a/top-china-official-visits-pakistan-markin...


Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters in Beijing earlier this month that CPEC projects "are flourishing all across Pakistan," making a "tangible contribution" to the national development of the country and to regional connectivity.

But critics say many projects have suffered delays, including several much-touted industrial zones that were supposed to help Pakistan enhance its exports to earn much-needed foreign exchange.

The country's declining dollar reserves have prevented Islamabad from paying Chinese power producers, leading to strains in many ties.

Pakistan owes more than $1.26 billion (350 billion rupees) to Chinese power plants. The amount keeps growing, and China has been reluctant to defer or restructure the payment and CPEC debts. All the Chinese loans – both government and commercial banks – makeup nearly 30% of Islamabad's external debt.

Some critics blame CPEC investments for contributing to Pakistan's economic troubles. The government fended off the risk of an imminent default by securing a short-term $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout agreement this month.

Security threats to its citizens and interests in Pakistan have also been a cause of concern for China. Militant attacks have killed several Chinese nationals in recent years, prompting Beijing to press Islamabad to ensure security measures for CPEC projects.

Diplomatic sources told VOA that China has lately directed its diplomats and citizens working on CPEC programs to strictly limit their movements and avoid visiting certain Pakistani cities for security reasons.

"They [Chinese] believe this security issue is becoming an impediment in taking CPEC forward," Senator Mushahid Hussain, the chairman of the defense committee of the upper house of the Pakistani parliament, told VOA in an interview earlier this month.

"Recurring expressions of concern about the safety and security of Chinese citizens and investors in Pakistan by top Chinese leaders indicate that Pakistan's promises of 'foolproof security' for Chinese working in Pakistan have yet to be fulfilled," said Hussain, who represents Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's ruling party in the Senate.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 31, 2023 at 5:41pm

Pakistan, China sign six agreements to boost bilateral cooperation

https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2023/07/31/cpec-pakistan-china-sig...


China and Pakistan on Monday signed six agreements for the promotion of bilateral cooperation as Chinese vice premier Mr He Lifeng, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal and other foreign dignitaries looked on.

On the occasion, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that “Pakistan is absolutely ready to contribute towards Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision of the shared destiny of progress and prosperity.”

The premier made these remarks during the signing ceremony of six agreements and MoUs for the promotion of bilateral cooperation between China and Pakistan.

PM Shehbaz said that the documents signed by the two countries were aimed at further enhancing economic relations between the two countries.

He added that under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), more than $25 billion worth of investment has taken place in Pakistan’s power and hydel sector, road infrastructure and public transport.

Shehbaz maintained, “We are now entering the second phase of the CPEC which will envisage investments in sectors, such as, agriculture and information technology.”

He added that both ML-1 and Karachi circular railway projects are of immense importance, expressing the confidence that both sides “will successfully achieve these and many other projects”. He was also confident that this will help Pakistan stand on its own feet”.

The premier said both Pakistan and China enjoy a unique relationship, adding “We are all-weather friends, iron brothers and this friendship will continue and will not tolerate any obstacles in its way”.

The two countries have signed six agreements and MoUs for the promotion of bilateral cooperation. The first document was signed on the joint cooperation committee (JCC) of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the second document was related to the establishment of an expert exchange mechanism within the framework of CPEC.

The third document was signed by the Secretary Ministry of National Food Security Zafar Hassan and the Chinese Charge D’affaires Ms Pang Chunxue for the export of dried Chillies from Pakistan to China.

Member Planning of National Highway Authority Asim Amin and Chinese Charge D’affaires Pang Chunxue signed the fourth document on the realignment of the Karakoram Highway Phase II project.

Addressing the occasion, PM Shehbaz said, “I thank the Chinese president for sending his senior official to Pakistan, expressing the solidarity of people-to-people friendship between the two countries. This gesture demonstrates the strength of our friendship.”

“I have no doubt that we are entering into the second phase of CPEC. Today, we have signed some important documents which will enhance our economic cooperation, and we will undertake the second phase under a new mode,” he told the gathering.

The PM highlighted that the agreements would lead to investments in agriculture and IT, enabling Pakistan, with China’s support, to export items according to the requirements and standards of the Chinese government.

He emphasised, “The CPEC was signed by then prime minister Nawaz Sharif and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and it was implemented promptly.”

“Today, we can claim that under the CPEC, more than $25bn investment took place in power, energy, public transport, and other sectors.”

He also expressed gratitude to the Chinese vice premier for visiting Pakistan as the two countries celebrate ten years of the CPEC. After the ceremony, delegation-level talks were held by PM Shehbaz and He Lifeng which encompassed multiple areas of bilateral cooperation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 31, 2023 at 10:32pm

China to work with Pak to build CPEC into ‘exemplary project’: Xi



https://tribune.com.pk/story/2428624/china-to-work-with-pakistan-to...

BEIJING:
Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Monday that China will work with Pakistan to aim for high-standard, sustainable and livelihood-enhancing outcomes and further build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into an exemplary project of high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.

Xi pointed out that CPEC is an important pioneering project of the Belt and Road cooperation. Since its launch in 2013, China and Pakistan have been advancing CPEC under the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, and have achieved a number of early harvests.

This has added new impetus to the economic and social development of Pakistan and laid a good foundation for regional connectivity and integration, he said, adding that it is a vivid testament to the all-weather friendship between China and Pakistan, and provides an important underpinning for building an even closer China-Pakistan community with a shared future in the new era.

Stressing that China and Pakistan will continue to improve overall planning and expand and deepen cooperation, Xi said that no matter how the international landscape may change, China will always stand firmly with Pakistan.

Xi added China and Pakistan will continue to work hand in hand and forge ahead in solidarity to carry forward the ironclad friendship, coordinate development and security, pursue cooperation of higher standards, broader scope and greater depth, and take the China-Pakistan all-weather strategic cooperative partnership to new heights, so as to make even greater contribution to peace and prosperity in the two countries and the broader region.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 1, 2023 at 7:05am

Pakistan lines up Saudi-backed refinery as it eyes more Russian oil

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Pakistan-lines-up-Saudi-backed-refi...

$10bn project in Gwadar draws skepticism but some experts see long game

A $10 billion Saudi-backed oil refinery project planned in Pakistan's port city of Gwadar aims to capitalize on the troubled economy's potential, and, sources say, lay a foundation for taking in more Russian crude.

Four Pakistani state-owned energy companies late last week signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Saudi Aramco, which will inject the initial 30% equity into the project. Once built, the refinery will be able to process 300,000 barrels per day, according to details released by the government.

That alone would surpass the combined total of 215,000 barrels per day of petroleum products refined in Pakistan in 2020-2021, according to a report by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority.

The quartet of enterprises -- Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Government Holdings Private Limited (GHPL) -- also signed a memorandum with China National Offshore Oil Corp. for engineering, procurement and construction of the refinery. Gwadar has long been positioned as the heart of China's Belt and Road projects in the country.

Pakistan is mired in political and economic crises, which forced it to go to the International Monetary Fund for a $3 billion standby bailout arrangement to avoid a default. For this reason, some experts Nikkei Asia interviewed expressed skepticism about the refinery project, questioning the need for the additional capacity in light of the economic woes. Security is also an ever-present concern, highlighted by a deadly suicide bombing in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Sunday.

But some argue that the parties involved are playing a longer game. James Dorsey, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, reasoned that although the economic situation in Pakistan is not ideal, the country, with a population of over 200 million, still has huge economic upside. "This refinery will take a few years to build and by that time economic growth is anticipated in Pakistan," he said.

The refinery could handle Russian crude, which Pakistan has just begun importing. With Ukraine war sanctions limiting Russia's export options and forcing discounts, a cash-strapped Islamabad turned to Moscow to bolster its energy supplies. Pakistan recently imported one shipment of Russian crude and is negotiating a second with a long-term oil transportation deal.

The secretive dealings have raised several questions: over Pakistan's ability to process the Russian oil, as well as shipment costs, and how exactly the government can pay for the fuel in Chinese yuan. Nevertheless, a Pakistani government official privy to the developments told Nikkei on condition of anonymity that importing oil from Russia has been a success.

"Pakistan plans to increase its oil imports from Russia, which would result in a need for additional refinery capacity in Pakistan," the official said. "The proposed refinery in Gwadar will possibly help refine increasing volumes of Russian crude."

The Saudis, meanwhile, have been eyeing this project for some time. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Pakistan in February 2019 brought the first announcement that a $10 billion oil refinery would be built in Gwadar. After a four-year interval, Dorsey believes Riyadh is likely serious about the project now.

"Initially the Pakistanis tried to integrate the [Gwadar refinery] project in BRI but the Chinese refused it," Dorsey said, saying the project can now move ahead outside the Belt and Road framework.

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