Comment by Riaz Haq on September 1, 2024 at 9:38am

Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts
P. V. Rajesh, B. N. Goswami
First published: 31 July 2023

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF003459

Abstract
In contrast to the “wet gets wetter and dry gets drier” paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200% under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and is facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean (IO) warm pool. Mechanistically, the westward expansion of ISMR is a consequence of the episodic genesis over IO and the northward propagation of an expanded Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone on a sub-seasonal time scale. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region.

Key Points
Global warming could potentially cause a westward expansion of the Indian monsoon

Rainfall in northwest India and Pakistan has increased and will continue to rise due to greenhouse gases

Increased monsoon rainfall can improve food productivity and socio-economic conditions in the region

Plain Language Summary
An apparent eastward shift of the Indian monsoon has led to the arid conditions in the west and north-west regions of India where monsoon was once active, and the Indus Valley civilizations thrived (5,300–3,300-year BP). A reversal of the process and a westward expansion of the present-day Indian monsoon would transform the west and north-west India to a humid “monsoonal” climate and provide food security to the expanding population of the country. The present study shows that the Indian monsoon is indeed expanding to the west with 10% decrease of mean rainfall in the northeast and 25% increase in the west and north-west during the historical period with a potential of 50%–100% increase in the north-west under SSP2–4.5. Harvesting the increased rainfall has the potential for significant increase in food productivity bringing in transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people of the region.

Comment by Riaz Haq 6 hours ago

Pakistan’s leading fertilizer manufacturer Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC) has signed the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) agreement with a Chinese company, for what it termed as Pakistan’s first coal-to-fertilizer project under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 2.0 framework.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/amp/40422885



Pakistan advances $1.1 billion Thar coal-to-urea project to cut fertilizer imports | Arab News PK

https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2633799/pakistan

Thar lignite to be converted into urea under Pakistan’s flagship Coal-to-Fertilizer plan
Sindh administration says the initiative will create thousands of jobs, generate exports
Updated 20 February 2026
NAIMAT KHAN
February 20, 2026 16:24

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has moved forward with a $1.12 billion coal-to-fertilizer project in the desert region of Thar, an official statement said on Friday, as it aims to use domestic coal to produce urea and reduce reliance on imported fertilizer and costly natural gas.

The initiative is part of Pakistan’s broader push to tap the vast coal reserves in Tharparkar district in southern Sindh province. Thar is home to one of the world’s largest untapped lignite coal deposits, discovered in the 1990s, and has in recent years become central to the country’s coal-based power generation expansion.


“This project is of immense importance not only for Sindh but for the entire country,” Shah said, according to the statement. “It will reduce reliance on imported fertilizer, create jobs, generate exports and add value to our indigenous coal resources.”

Pakistan traditionally produces urea using natural gas as feedstock. However, declining domestic gas reserves and rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have increased production costs and placed pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Under the Coal-to-Fertilizer (C2F) initiative, Thar coal will be converted into synthesis gas through a process known as coal gasification. The hydrogen extracted from that gas will then be used to produce ammonia, which is combined with carbon dioxide to manufacture urea.

The project is designed to produce around 717,000 tons of urea annually, with roughly half intended for domestic use and the remainder for export. Officials estimate annual export revenues of up to $260 million.

Once operational, the statement said, the project could create more than 3,500 direct jobs and about 7,000 indirect jobs, while generating royalties for the provincial government through coal extraction.

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