Comment by Riaz Haq on September 24, 2026 at 8:51pm

@najam-ali

In PPP terms, India’s GDP might be 1.5 times larger than Pakistan’s, but the real story is different.

Once you account for Pakistan’s massive undocumented economy, our GDP per capita in PPP terms actually edges out India’s.

Why? Because we have around 3 million small businesses thriving outside the formal system.

This is also why our government struggles with tax revenues, not because the economy is weak, but because the informal sector is so dominant.

And frankly, that is not entirely a bad thing. As I said in an interview yesterday: every extra dollar in the hands of a private business owner creates more value than when handed to a government that specializes in inefficiency and waste.

https://x.com/najam_ali/status/1916396161251897800?s=61&t=mgTxr...

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 2, 2026 at 5:05pm

Sabeer Bhatia
@sabeer
Benchmark
Oct. 1, 2024
Oct. 1, 2026
2-year return

🇵🇰 Pakistan KSE-100
81,804.59
168,636.84
+106.1%

🇮🇳 India Nifty 50
25,796.90
22,421.95
−13.1%


https://x.com/sabeer/status/2105848874963534276?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 2, 2026 at 8:49pm

Apparel industry pledges to ramp up exports

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2632324/apparel-industry-pledges-to-ra...

The new team takes over as Pakistan's textile sector shows a modest growth. Textile and clothing exports rose 5.55% to $3.4 billion in July-August 2026-27 from $3.2 billion in the same period of last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data.

Readymade garments did better than most categories, with exports rising 13.59% in the first two months of the current fiscal year to $827 million.

The annual numbers show how little growth the sector managed to achieve last year. Textile exports in the previous fiscal year were up only 0.26% at $17.93 billion, while readymade garment exports rose 3.87% to $4.29 billion.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 2, 2026 at 8:57pm

Exports increase 11pc amid soaring deficit - Business - DAWN.COM

https://www.dawn.com/news/2034340

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s merchandise exports grew by 10.84 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year (FY27), despite the trade gap widening on the back of rising imports, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday.

In absolute terms, export proceeds stood at $8.43 billion in July-September, up from $7.59bn in the corresponding period last year.

Officials noted that the impact of budgetary measures on the export sector may become more apparent in the months ahead. Export proceeds grew despite Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s clear displeasure with exporters’ performance.

In September, exports rose by 17.61pc to $2.94bn, from $2.49bn in the same month last year, suggesting a revival of the export sector.

Trade gap widens 15.13pc to $10.79bn in July-Sept

On a month-on-month basis, export proceeds rose 16.07pc.

In FY26, Pakistan’s merchandise exports not only missed the annual target by $4.87bn, but also contracted, reflecting the PML-N-led coalition government’s failure to achieve visible improvement over the last four years. Export proceeds also contracted by 5.97pc to $32.04bn.

The planning ministry had earlier projected that export proceeds would climb to $60bn by 2030 — a target that has largely remained confined to official documents. More recently, however, the same ministry revised the projection upward, setting a new target of $100bn by 2035.

Jawed Bilwani, Coordinator of the All Pakistan Exporters Association Forum, said exporters were struggling for survival amid unprecedented challenges, including high manufacturing costs, lack of competitiveness, and the absence of a level playing field.

He highlighted that Pakistani exporters operate on narrow profit margins compared to regional competitors, face higher taxes than other businesses, and endure prolonged delays in refund payments without compensation. He added that arbitrary FBR deductions, liquidity pressures, and high operational costs were crippling the sector.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 5, 2026 at 8:53pm

Five reasons India's stock market is sinking even when its economy is growing


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwp9g5p1gy7yo

India's economy is growing at an enviable rate of over 7% despite global energy shocks, rising interest rates, tariff uncertainties and weather-related disruptions.

But the world's fastest growing major economy also has one of the worst performing major equity markets in 2026. The correction in Indian stocks has, in fact, only intensified in recent weeks.
The benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices, which represent the country's largest companies, have inched up slightly since Monday after posting losses for eight straight weeks - the longest losing streak in 25 years, according to Reuters.
Indian mom-and-pop investors who put their money into the Nifty have seen their wealth erode by about 15% this year. In comparison, they would have made 62% returns on Korea's Kospi index since January or 170% in the last two years.
On aggregate, the money foreign investors have put into Indian markets in the past decade - after subtracting what they sold or withdrew - is nearing zero. In the past two years alone, foreign institutional investors have withdrawn a staggering $40bn, according to data from Bernstein Research.
It is the large pool of domestic institutional and retail money, flowing into instruments like mutual funds, that have helped the markets avoid a sharper fall.
Domestic assets under management of mutual funds have grown from about $125bn in 2016 to some $900bn this year, with the number of Indians parking money in stocks and mutual funds more than tripling to 150 million individuals.
This makes the recent fall in the markets more worrying - since households, already struggling from a weak job market, high inflation and faltering consumption, are now seeing their equity savings take a beating too.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 12, 2026 at 12:59pm

Is Pakistan poultry industry (2nd largest after textiles) part of its informal economy?

Yes, a significant portion of Pakistan's poultry industry operates within the informal (or unorganized) economy, though it also contains a modern, organized corporate segment. [1, 2]
Key Characteristics of the Sector
Unorganized Marketing Channels: The majority of broiler and egg marketing channels operate in the unorganized or informal sector, accounting for a large share of daily sales. [1, 2]
Slaughter and Processing: Only 5% to 6% of poultry slaughterhouses, processing, and value-addition activities take place within the organized sector. Most live birds are sold through local wet markets and uncertified neighborhood shops. [1]
Tax and Regulatory Reach: Much of the informal poultry network operates outside the formal tax net and strict regulatory frameworks, which contributes to local price volatility and supply shocks. [1]
Micro and Household Scale: A substantial amount of small-scale animal farming and poultry rearing occurs at the household level, representing a core part of informal rural livelihoods and home-based economic activities. [1]
The Organized Side: Alongside the informal market, Pakistan has a multi-billion-rupee commercial foundation with large, vertically integrated corporations (such as K&N’s, Sabroso, Big Bird, and Sufi Foods) that manage modern feed mills, hatcheries, and controlled-environment farms. [1, 2]


-----------

Pakistan's poultry industry is the country's second-largest industry after textiles, functioning as a vital source of affordable animal protein and employment.

Key Statistics & Production

• Global Rank: Pakistan is the 11th-largest poultry producer in the world.
• Output: Produces approximately 2.5 billion kg of poultry meat and over 26–28 billion eggs annually.
• Employment: Supports and employs around 1.5 million families nationwide.
• GDP Contribution: Contributes roughly 1.3% to 1.5% to the national GDP and a major share of agricultural value-added.
• Meat Share: Poultry makes up over 40% of Pakistan's total meat production.

Structure & Operations

• Integration: Dominated by commercial feed mills, hatcheries, breeding farms, and broiler/layer operations with strong vertical integration.
• Housing: The vast majority of commercial broiler farming (97–98%) uses modern, environmentally controlled housing rather than open-sided sheds.
• Growth Rate: The sector has expanded at an average annual growth rate of roughly 8.1% over the past decade.

Core Challenges

• High Feed & Input Costs: Volatility in global grain and feed ingredient prices directly spikes local production costs.
• Disease Management: Susceptibility to outbreaks like Avian Influenza (H5N1, H7N3, H9N2), Gumboro, and Hydropericardium Syndrome (HPS).
• Export Deficit: Despite massive domestic output, poultry exports remain low (estimated between $4 million and $24 million), constrained by cold-chain logistics, sanitary standards, and international compliance gaps.
• Price Fluctuations: Retail chicken and egg prices experience sharp seasonal and feed-driven swings.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 12, 2026 at 1:01pm

Yes, currency in circulation and the overall cash-based economy in Pakistan have continued to grow since the COVID-19 pandemic, even as digital and cashless payments have also expanded rapidly. [1, 2]
Key Facts on Pakistan’s Cash Economy Post-COVID
Growing Currency in Circulation: Total currency in circulation in Pakistan has climbed past 12 trillion rupees, showing that physical cash remains heavily dominant in daily commerce.
High Denomination Dominance: Roughly 60% of the physical currency in circulation consists of 5,000-rupee notes, with another 15% to 20% in 1,000-rupee notes, reflecting a continued reliance on high-value cash for large or informal transactions.
Persistent Informal Sector: A massive share of retail and trade activity—especially within the undocumented or informal economy—still operates strictly on cash due to limited financial literacy, high taxation avoidance, and a lack of merchant tax incentives. [1]
The Parallel Growth of Digital Payments
Even though the cash economy has expanded in absolute volume, Pakistan has simultaneously experienced a major surge in digital adoption:
Digital Banking Users: The number of registered digital banking users in Pakistan has crossed 127 million. [1]
Raast and Mobile Platforms: The State Bank of Pakistan’s instant payment system, Raast, along with mobile wallets and internet banking apps, has driven trillions of rupees in digital volume (with government salaries, pensions, and vendor payments increasingly flowing through Raast). [1, 2]
Growth Metrics: Digital transaction volumes and values have grown significantly year-over-year, though they sit side-by-side with a scaling physical cash supply. [1, 2]

Comment by Riaz Haq 6 hours ago

Pakistan has posted a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.65% during FY2026, estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday showed.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40444924


The growth is lower than the 3.70% estimated by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) during the previous meeting, indicating a slower pace of economic expansion than earlier expected.

“The updated growth rates in agriculture, industry, and services are 3.50%, 3.34%, and 3.81%, compared with earlier growth rates of 2.89%, 3.51%, and 4.09%, respectively,” said NAC in its 118th meeting held today.


—————

"In USD terms, India’s GDP growth is one of the lowest in the world at just 3.8% Growth."

— Subhash Chandra, Ex Finance Secretary

https://x.com/indiangems_/status/2112193592471208295?s=61&t=mgT...

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