PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network

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Geopolitics: Changing Dynamics of Pakistan's Ties to China and the US

Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Both China and US Are Courting Pakistan

In a piece titled "Pakistan's Great Game", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot has explained what he sees as Pakistan's "tactics and strategy" in dealing with the two superpowers. Here's a quote from Jaffrelot's recent article on the subject:

"While Pakistan’s relationship with China is rooted in strategic logic, its relationship with the United States is more tactical in nature-and has been since the 1950s, when General Ayub Khan boasted of his ability to play "one lion against another" (referring to the United States and the USSR at the start of the Cold War). In its dealings with the United States, Pakistan has played the role of intermediary, or even "client," within a typical clientelist framework: in exchange for the services Islamabad provided to Washington, the United States provided Pakistan with substantial aid and agreed to sell it sophisticated weapons, and even to train its officers-a privilege greatly appreciated..... The first major service rendered by the Pakistanis to the Americans was none other than the intermediary role played by General Yahya Khan vis-à-vis Chairman Mao in the early 1970s, which led to the United States’ recognition of the People’s Republic of China. Over the following decade, Pakistan served as an intermediary between Washington and the mujahideen tasked with driving the Soviets out of Afghanistan. And in the 2000s, Pakistan was tasked by Washington with hunting down al-Qaeda-with much more mixed success this time, as evidenced by the discovery of bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad in 2011".

Pakistan PM Sharif (L) with Chinese President Xi

Jaffrelot goes on to say that the United States has repeatedly proved to be an unreliable partner of the South Asia nation. "Whenever the United States no longer needed Pakistan-or even felt betrayed by it-it abandoned the country or even imposed sanctions on it", he writes.

More recently, Pakistan's usefulness to the US has once again become obvious, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace with Iran, Jaffrelot says.

"In 2026, Pakistan appears useful once again, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace. Each time, these glorious episodes were very short-lived and came to an end due to criticism of the Pakistani regime’s authoritarianism - with the military always remaining in power, even when civilians are in the forefront; its ties to Islamists accused of terrorist activities - particularly in India; or accusations of nuclear proliferation. Will the same be true tomorrow, once the war in Iran is over and the United States no longer needs Pakistan? Everything will, of course, depend on the outcome of the conflict and the role Pakistan plays in resolving it-for it will be harder to send Islamabad back home if the world owes it something resembling peace".

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

Jaffrelot argues that "Pakistan has reached a turning point through the recognition of its military capabilities, as reflected in the mutual defense agreement it signed with Saudi Arabia...... Last June, Kaja Kallas, the EU Vice President in charge of the Union’s international relations, on the occasion of the 8th Strategic Dialogue between Pakistan and the European Union in Islamabad, thanked Pakistan-"a major regional power"-for its efforts in helping to avert an "all-out war" in the Middle East. Jaffrelot now sees Pakistan's new role as a "net security provider" in West Asia and the Middle East.

He writes: "A more significant factor entering the equation relates to regional balances of power: Pakistan will continue to serve as a "net security provider" for Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia if those countries continue to fear the rise of Israel - a potential regional hegemon - and if they doubt Washington’s intentions, or even its mere reliability. There is no doubt that Pakistan itself will do everything in its power to prevent Israel from asserting itself on the regional stage and to gain influence over Iran-which is what the Israeli-American plan for regime change in Iran might have entailed. At the very least, faced with the risk of Israeli hegemony based on force and repeated military interventions, Pakistan could emerge as the architect of a resistance front bringing together not only Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, but also Iran".

Jaffrelot expects India to continue its decade-long campaign to isolate Pakistan internationally. "India’s ability to isolate Pakistan-the strategy Narendra Modi has pursued for more than a decade-is another important variable, though its significance may be undermined by New Delhi’s drift toward authoritarianism and ethnocracy, as well as by the economic and social crisis threatening the country", according to Jaffrelot.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 22, 2026 at 8:28pm: Beyond geopolitical blocs: why Pakistan's strategic autonomy matters to Europe

By Seema Afzal

https://www.atalayar.com/en/articulo/politics/beyond-geopolitical-b...

Translating geography into economic value

Diversification requires translating geographical positioning into substantive economic capacity through the Government of Pakistan and the private sector.

Located at the crossroads of South Asia, China, Central Asia, and the Middle East, Pakistan holds immense transit and trade connectivity potential. However, geography generates geopolitical influence only when it creates tangible economic value.

CPEC and infrastructure initiatives must aim beyond functioning solely as transit corridors. Seaports, motorways, and rail networks generate peak value when integrated with specialised industrial zones, logistics hubs, modern energy grids, and export-oriented manufacturing.

Deeper integration into regional supply chains will stimulate foreign direct investment and domestic employment. For European industry, a productive, well-connected Pakistan offers a reliable gateway to surrounding regional markets, converting physical connectivity into diversified economic options.

Strategic autonomy begins at home

Pakistan's trajectory offers a fundamental lesson for middle powers: strategic autonomy cannot be attained merely by refusing to pick sides between rival geopolitical blocs; it must be anchored in domestic productive and institutional capacity.

Contemporary power operates across financial systems, supply chains, energy networks, and digital infrastructure. States vulnerable to severe disruption across these domains face narrowed foreign policy horizons. Islamabad therefore requires diversified international partnerships grounded in domestic economic resilience.

This is where Pakistan's strategic approach and Europe's debate on strategic autonomy converge: both confront the shared challenge of leveraging globalisation while avoiding asymmetrical, concentrated dependencies.

Europe should embrace this strategic synergy. Supporting the diversification of global partners does not undermine European interests; it strengthens a balanced, rules-based international network.

In an emerging multipolar environment, strategic influence will belong to nations that combine domestic resilience with diversified foreign relations to safeguard sovereign decision-making. For Pakistan, this defines strategic autonomy; for Europe, fostering such resilience is a pragmatic investment in global stability.

Saima Afzal is a researcher specialising in South Asian security, counter-terrorism, and broader geopolitical dynamics across the Middle East, Afghanistan, and the Indo-Pacific. She is currently a researcher at Justus Liebig University Giessen(Germany).

Comment by Riaz Haq 5 hours ago: CPEC And The Promise Of A More Connected And Prosperous Region – OpEd

https://www.eurasiareview.com/02112026-cpec-and-the-promise-of-a-mo...

CPEC aims to turn Pakistan’s geography into economic opportunity by linking South and Central Asia through infrastructure, energy and trade, with the second phase shifting toward industry, private investment and skilled jobs.
Success is judged by everyday gains—jobs, small-business growth and better services, especially around Gwadar—rather than investment totals alone.
Despite security and governance challenges, its value lies in fostering regional interdependence and shared prosperity that converts isolation into lasting economic links.

There’s no grandstanding or new structures that make the city look good when the economy starts. It starts when people have new work opportunities, businesses are able to expand to new markets, and communities are linked to the outside world. This is the significance of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In addition to the highways, ports and power plants, CPEC is an opportunity to transform the economics of the region and to make the lives of millions better. It is its potential to draw countries together through trade, investment, cooperation and shared prosperity that is really important.

Despite being only a few hundred miles apart and having ample resources, South Asia and Central Asia have not been economically linked for decades. These areas are unable to develop their economies due to political disagreements, absence of infrastructure and lack of trade arrangements. CPEC has a potential to bring a change in this scenario. It is a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to link China’s western provinces with the coast of the Arabian Sea in Pakistan, and to open up opportunities for regional economic integration.

Being located in a region of the world, Pakistan enjoys a geographical advantage which few countries have. It is located on the border of South Asia, Central Asia, China and the Middle East. However, no prosperity can be created by geography. To take advantage of their location, countries need to establish the infrastructure, institutions and commercial links. CPEC offers Pakistan a chance to put its strategic location in a real playable economic equation which will connect producers, traders, investors and consumers from various markets.

Infrastructure construction is one of the most important services provided by CPEC. Economic activity depends on roads, energy and transport facilities. Increased ease of transporting agricultural products to their markets could lead to reduced transportation costs and better income opportunities for farmers. Also, manufacturers gain secured electricity and ease of supply from manufacturers. Pakistan’s Ministry of Planning said that the first phase of CPEC brought significant investments in energy and infrastructure, which were laying a solid ground for further economic development.

The next challenge is to transform infrastructure into a productive economic activity. Pakistan requires factories, modern farms, cooperation with technology, and export-based enterprises to take advantage of these investments. The second phase of CPEC is getting more industrial, innovative and private participation. This is especially significant as it is important not only to develop infrastructure but also businesses that can manufacture products that are competitive and provide skilled job creation.

Comment by Riaz Haq 5 hours ago: CPEC And The Promise Of A More Connected And Prosperous Region – OpEd

https://www.eurasiareview.com/02112026-cpec-and-the-promise-of-a-mo...

One of these points is the town of Gwadar, which merits unique and special consideration in this discussion. The port is situated on the Arabian Sea and can play a vital role in maritime trade and economic activities of Balochistan. The future development of the port may present opportunities to the transportation industry, the fishing industry, traders and service providers for the port sector. However, success of Gwadar cannot be judged only based on the construction of facilities, it needs to be judged on the commercial activity as well as improvement in living standards of the people living in the region.

The positive impacts of CPEC should be visible in the day-to-day life of the common people of Pakistan. A young graduate getting a job or a small entrepreneur taking his business to the next level, or a family becoming more accessible to healthcare, are better indicators of development than just investment numbers. Vocational education, health care, water supply and agricultural training programs can contribute to the meaningfulness of economic cooperation from a social perspective. The opportunities that are generated by the major projects must be shared fairly with communities close to them.

CPEC also can promote the stability in the region. Countries that establish good commercial connections gain other motivations for establishing peaceful and predictable relations. Secure borders are essential for traders, confidence is vital for investors, and businesses rely on operating transport systems. Economic interdependence doesn’t necessarily make political disputes easier, it can create an incentive for discussion. As mistrust and conflict abounds in the area, there is a need to take on more seriously the ability of people to work together on common economic concerns.

However, it would be impractical to claim that CPEC is not facing any difficulties. Security issues, administrative lag, budget constraints, and benefits inequity continue to be significant constraints. They must be tackled in a transparent manner, with the responsible management of money, better governance and through meaningful local community consultation. Public confidence will be enhanced as they begin to see positive results in the areas of employment, services and business opportunities.

In addition, extension of opportunities for participation of regional partners and private investors should be encouraged in both countries. The corridor’s scope of economic benefit can be extended through cooperation in the fields of renewable energy, agriculture, information technology, education and manufacturing. The harmonization of trade procedures and improvement of the institutions and infrastructure for regional connectivity would enhance its practicality. It should be aimed to build CPEC as a platform to build mutually beneficial economic relations and not as a bilateral infrastructure programme.

CPEC’s best hope is to bring an economic isolate into the realm of opportunity. The success of its implementation should not be assessed solely based on the number of kilometres built and the amount of agreements that are signed. It should be measured by stronger businesses, better living standards, enhanced regional cooperation and more solid economic ties. With commitment and proper planning, CPEC can be more than an economic corridor for Pakistan, China and their regional partners if they are able to achieve their goals. It may turn into a permanent link between nations, markets, and individuals to a more successful future.

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