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Has Bangladesh Really Left India and Pakistan Behind in Per Capita Income?
Is Bangladesh's officially reported GDP figure credible? Do consumption figures support Bangladesh's claim of higher per capita income than India and Pakistan? Is it the recent rebasing of GDP that boosted Bangladesh's per capita income above India's and Pakistan's? If Bangladesh has higher GDP per capita, why is its per capita consumption of energy, cement and steel so much lower than India's and Pakistan's? Does Pakistan really have a much larger informal economy than Bangladesh or India do? How long has it been since Pakistan rebased its GDP calculations? Is there a lot more currency in circulation in Pakistan than in Bangladesh and India? Let us try and answer these questions!
Rebasing GDP:
Bangladesh just rebased its GDP in 2020-21 to year 2015-16. This has boosted its per capita income by double digits for every year since 2015-16. Bangladesh's per capita income for the 2015-16 fiscal year has now gone up to $1,737 from $1,465 in the old calculation. For the 2019-2020 fiscal, the per capita income has gone up to $2,335 from $2,024. The new GDP estimate covers 21 sectors, up from 15 sectors previously. India last rebased its GDP in 2015, a change that bumped up its per capita GDP by double digits. Nigeria's last rebasing in 2012 increased the size of its economy (GDP) by nearly 90%. Pakistan's current base year is 2005-6. Rebasing which is now long overdue will almost certainly increase Pakistan's per capita income by double digits.
In its 2014 annual report, the State Bank of Pakistan talked about a number of new sectors that are either under-reported or not covered at all: "In terms of LSM growth, a number of sectors that are showing strong performance; (for example, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector; plastic products; buses and trucks; and even textiles), are either under reported, or not even covered. The omission of such important sectors from official data coverage, probably explains the apparent disconnect between overall economic activity in the country and the hard numbers in LSM."
Pakistan's last economic census was done in 2003 and published in 2005, livestock census in 2006 and agriculture census in 2010. The country's economy has changed significantly since then, adding several new economic activities while others may have diminished. The Quantum Index of Large Scale Manufacturing (QIM) with 2005-06 base year gives a weight to textiles of 20.9% (Yarn 13.7 and cloth 7.2). But the textile industry has significantly changed as reflected in its exports. The value added textiles (non-yarn and non-cloth) now make almost 80% of the total textile exports. These changes are not reflected in current GDP calculations.
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| Primary Energy Consumption Per Capita. Source: British Petroleum St... |
Energy consumption:
Life in modern times is heavily dependent on energy. Per capita energy consumption, a key barometer of economic activity, is significantly lower in Bangladesh than in India and Pakistan. Use of electricity per capita in Bangladesh is significantly less than in India and Pakistan.
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Commercial energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) above refers to apparent consumption, which is equal to indigenous production plus imports and stock changes, minus exports and fuels supplied to ships and aircraft engaged in international transport. It's only 142 Kg of oil per capita in Bangladesh, much lower than 463 Kg in Pakistan and 494 Kg in India.
A more recent British Petroleum "Statistical Review of World Energy 2021" puts the per capita primary energy consumption at 9.7 Gigajoules (232 kilogram of oil equivalent) for Bangladesh, 15.7 Gj (375 kgoe) for Pakistan and 23.2 Gj (554 kgoe) for India.
Per capita consumption of primary energy in Bangladesh has grown by 59% (6.1 Gj to 9.7 Gj) since 2010, much faster than 25% (18.2 Gj to 23.2 Gj) in India and just 6% (14.8 Gj to 15.7 Gj) in Pakistan, according to the British Petroleum's "Statistical Review of World Energy 2021". This indicates much faster economic growth in Bangladesh than India or Pakistan in the last decade.
Cement Consumption:
Use of cement is another important indicator of economic and development activities, particularly in the infrastructure and housing construction sector. China and the United States, the world's biggest economies, also have the highest consumption of cement.
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| Cement Consumption. Source: International Cement Review |
Steel Consumption:
Per capita steel consumption is another important indicator of economic activity in both construction and manufacturing sectors. It goes into building housing and infrastructure as well manufacturing vehicles and home appliances. The United States and China, the world's biggest economies, are the largest consumers of steel.
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| Per Capita Steel Consumption. Source: National Steel Advisory Council |
Bangladesh is among the lowest consumers of steel products in the world. Per capita consumption of finished steel in Bangladesh (41 Kg) is lower than the regional peer Myanmar (40.5), India (75.3), Pakistan (45.7), Sri Lanka (53.5), according to the World Steel Association (WSA).
Pakistan's Informal Economy:
One way to estimate the size of the informal economy in any country is by looking at the amount of currency in circulation relative to overall money supply. This data is published regularly by all central banks in South Asia and elsewhere. Pakistan's currency in circulation to M2 ratio (about 30%) is more than double the ratios in Bangladesh (13%) and India (15%), indicating that the informal economy in Pakistan is much bigger.
Dr. Lalarukh Ejaz, an assistant professor at the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi, has estimated the size of Pakistan’s informal economy at 56% of the country’s GDP (as of 2019). This means that it’s worth around $180 billion a year, and that is a massive amount by any yardstick.
Vehicles and home appliance ownership data analyzed by Dr. Jawaid Abdul Ghani of Karachi School of Business Leadership suggests that the officially reported GDP significantly understates Pakistan's actual GDP. Indeed, many economists believe that Pakistan’s economy is at least double the size that is officially reported in the government's Economic Surveys.
Back in 2014, the State Bank of Pakistan stated in its Annual Report as follows: "In terms of LSM growth, a number of sectors that are showing strong performance; (for example, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector; plastic products; buses and trucks; and even textiles), are either under reported, or not even covered. The omission of such important sectors from official data coverage, probably explains the apparent disconnect between overall economic activity in the country and the hard numbers in LSM." Pakistan's GDP has not been rebased in more than a decade. It was last rebased in 2005-6 while India’s was rebased in 2011. The recent rebasing of Bangladesh GDP to year 2015 has boosted its per capita income of Bangladesh for year 2016-16 and all subsequent years . The per capita income for the 2015-16 fiscal year has now gone up to $1737 from $1465 in the old calculation For the 2019-2020 fiscal, the per capita income has gone up to $2335 from $2024. Just rebasing the Pakistani economy will result in double digit increases in GDP for the last several years.
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| Estimates of Informal Economies in Asia in 2012. Source: IMF A research paper by economists Ali Kemal and Ahmad Waqar Qasim of PIDE (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) estimated in 2012 that the Pakistani economy’s size then was around $400 billion. All they did was look at the consumption data to reach their conclusion. They used the data reported in regular PSLM (Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurements) surveys on actual living standards. They found that a huge chunk of the country's economy is undocumented.
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| Currency in Circulation to M2 Ratio Trends. Source: Business Recorder |
Pakistan's Service Sector:
Pakistan's service sector which contributes more than 50% of the country's GDP is mostly cash-based and least documented. Compared to Bangladesh and India, there is a lot more currency in circulation as a percentage of overall money supply in Pakistan. According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the currency in circulation has increased to Rs. 7.4 trillion by the end of the financial year 2020-21, up from Rs 6.7 trillion in the last financial year, a double-digit growth of 10.4% year-on-year. Currency in circulation (CIC), as percent of M2 money supply and currency-to-deposit ratio, has been increasing over the last few years. The CIC/M2 ratio is now close to 30%, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. The average CIC/M2 ratio in FY18-21 was measured at 28%, up from 22% in FY10-15. This 1.2 trillion rupee increase could have generated undocumented GDP of Rs 3.1 trillion at the historic velocity of 2.6, according to a report in The Business Recorder. In comparison to Bangladesh (CIC/M2 at 13%), Pakistan’s cash economy is double the size. Even a casual observer can see that the living standards in Pakistan are higher than those in Bangladesh and India.
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| Exports as Percentage of GDP in South Asia. Source: World Bank |
Exports:
Pakistan has performed poorly in exports growth relative to Bangladesh and India since about 2007. This has been the key source of its balance of payments crises and its repeated need for IMF bailouts. Pakistan's economic growth has essentially been constrained by its recurring balance of payment (BOP) crises as explained by Thirlwall's Law.
Summary:
Bangladesh just rebased its GDP in 2020-21 to year 2015-16. This has boosted its per capita income by double digits for every year since 2015-16, raising it above India's and Pakistan's. Based on published data on energy, cement and steel consumption, Bangladesh's claim of having a per capita GDP higher than India's and Pakistan's does not seem credible. In this age of growing energy-intensive industrialization, it does not make sense to have significantly lower use of key inputs like energy to produce higher gross domestic product. For Pakistan, it is important for policymakers to promote ways of documenting more of the economy. It's also important for finance officials to rebase the country's GDP to a more recent year than the year 2006 when it was last done.
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Comment by Riaz Haq on January 20, 2022 at 7:43am
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Country registered 14-year high GDP growth in 2021 despite COVID-19: Asad Umar
https://www.geo.tv/latest/394351-asad-umar-claims-record-economic-g...
Last fiscal year, country’s economic growth rate recorded an all-time high in 14 years at 5.7%, minister says.
Says major industries also succeed in maintaining the growth rate at 15% which is more than average.
In last two weeks, Opposition came up with two failed narratives, PTI leader says.
FAISALABAD: Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives Asad Umar claimed on Thursday that despite being hit by COVID-19, Pakistan’s economy witnessed record development under the leadership of Imran Khan, Geo News reported.
Coronavirus had badly affected the world’s economy, but last year, Pakistan’s economic growth shot up as compared to the last 14 years, he said.
Talking to journalists in Faisalabad, the PTI leader shed light on the economy and said that during the last fiscal year, the country’s economic growth rate was forecast at 3.4% but it recorded an all-time high in 14 years at 5.7%.
Coronavirus has battered the world’s economy, but under the leadership of Imran Khan Pakistan’s economy is progressing toward development, he added.
The federal minister further said that the last year, the growth of industries recorded a 15-year high, while major industries also succeed in maintaining the growth rate at 15% which is more than average.
Historic increases in the production of wheat were recorded while potato, tomato, onion, and natural gas and crude oil production also shot up.
Umar also lashed out at the Opposition, saying that in the last two weeks, it came up with two failed narratives.
"I pity for them (the Opposition) as the government vanquished them in National Assembly after passing bills with a majority," he said.
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Pakistan Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) rebased
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40148481
ISLAMABAD: The government has rebased Quantum Index of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) from 2005-06 to 2015-16 with increasing the total 112 items with cumulative weight of 70.3 percent for computation to 123 items having total weight of 78.4 percent, where, the Ministry of Industries and Production weight has been decreased from 49.556 percent in the QIM 2005-06 to 40.54 percent in QIM 2015-16.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has released a report on the rebasing of Quantum Index of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (QIM) from 2005-06 to 2015-16, which stated that the weights presently used for the QIM were derived from the Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-2006. Total 112 items with cumulative weight of 70.3 percent are being used for computation of QIM.
The production data is collected from Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC), Ministry of Industries and Production (MOIP) and Provincial Bureaus of Statistics (BOS).
Moreover, to keep QIM more reliable, update and to overcome the challenges, the current QIM is rebased on the basis of results of CMI 2015-16. The rebased QIM has been computed with 123 items having total weight of 78.4 percent derived from the CMI 2015-16 with all existing data sources with addition of the PBS internal data source.
It further stated that new weights have been derived at two stages, the weight at industry level have been derived on the basis of gross value added (GVA) of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) at the basic prices.
The total GVA for the LSMI is taken as 100 and percentage contribution of each industry has been considered as the weight of that industry.
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Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
The NAC, in its 104th meeting, reviewed the change of base of National Accounts from FY06 to FY16. With this revision, the final estimates of GDPg of FY21 came out to be 5.57%.Full report
https://arifhabib.com/r/GDPg.pdf
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Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Historic high-power generation registered in CY21, 136,572 GWh, up by 10.6% YoY. The sharp inflection in economic activity post supportive measures by the Gov’t/SBP remained instrumental in achieving this growth.
https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1484519832921989122?s=20
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Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
*Power Generation up by 9.3% YoY during 1HFY22*
Dec’21: 8,828 GWh, +12.0% YoY
1HFY22: 74,396 GWh , +9.3% YoY
https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1484511672001871878?s=20
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The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has come up with the final figure of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh in the fiscal 2020-21, reflecting a sharp and clear V-shaped recovery from the devastating impacts of Covid-19 on the economy.
https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/bbs-claims-sharp-v-shaped-recovery-...
Nearly 10 months after the fiscal year had ended, the BBS revealed that the economy achieved 6.94% of growth in the last fiscal year – a little more than double the growth of 3.45% in FY20.
Most think tanks from home and abroad were anticipating an L-shaped prolonged recovery path for Bangladesh with about 4% of growth. Some of the organisations predicted a U-shaped moderate growth path with more than 5% of growth.
But the final estimation of the BBS surpassed the projection of all development partners. Even the final growth figure of the BBS is 1.51 percentage point higher than its preliminary estimation.
Analysing the performance of the first nine months of the fiscal year and projection of the last three months, the national statistical organisation earlier estimated 5.43% growth for FY21.
The huge jump in growth in the final calculation made policymakers and officials of the government happier. But what economists and independent experts find does not match the reality.
Planning Minister MA Mannan revealed the final GDP report of the BBS at a press briefing following the meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) on Tuesday at the NEC auditorium in Dhaka.
He said, "The GDP growth for the last fiscal year reached 6.94%, which was 5.43% during the provisional estimate, however by the end, it increased by 1.51 percentage points."
The GDP growth edged down to three-decade-low 3.45% in FY20 due to the Covid fallout, said the BBS final report on 5 August last year.
Calling the growth "a miracle" amid the pandemic, the minister said, "Our GDP growth upturned to nearly 7% while many other countries took a hit."
He said the prime minister is very happy with the achievement and she has dedicated this to the countrymen.
"As per the initial estimation, the size of GDP was $410.82 billion, which later rose to $416.26 billion," Minister MA Mannan added.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh's per capita income has increased to $2,591 that previously was estimated to be $2,554.
State Minister for Planning Dr Shamsul Alam said, "The growth in national GDP is proof that our economy has bolstered since we have made progress in sectors, such as exports and remittances."
The IMF projected 4.60% of GDP growth for the last fiscal year, while the projection of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank was between 5% and 5.5%.
Asked how the BBS estimate differs from the other projection, Shamsul Alam said development partners and any other organisations have no capacity to estimate the final figure of the GDP. They make projections using data from the BBS and some major economic indicators. That is why the final figure of the BBS is more appropriate than the others', he added.
The planning minister said, "We are confident in data generated by ourselves. We rely on the BBS data."
He asked for positive criticism and research to find a mismatch in the BBS Data if there is any.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, executive Director at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, told The Business Standard that 6.94% economic growth does not reflect the reality of the last fiscal year.
Mentioning a 5.43% provisional growth, he questioned what was the major change in the economy in the last three months that boosted the growth to near about 7%?
Economic activities were affected by the Delta variant of Covid-19 in April and May. Only the month of June was relatively stable, he said, adding that a 5.5% growth for FY21 is relevant, he added.
He further said investment in the final calculation increased by only 2.19% when compared with the provisional estimate.
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The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has come up with the final figure of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh in the fiscal 2020-21, reflecting a sharp and clear V-shaped recovery from the devastating impacts of Covid-19 on the economy.
https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/bbs-claims-sharp-v-shaped-recovery-...
'Dr Ahsan H Mansur, executive Director at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, told The Business Standard that 6.94% economic growth does not reflect the reality of the last fiscal year.
Mentioning a 5.43% provisional growth, he questioned what was the major change in the economy in the last three months that boosted the growth to near about 7%?
Economic activities were affected by the Delta variant of Covid-19 in April and May. Only the month of June was relatively stable, he said, adding that a 5.5% growth for FY21 is relevant, he added.
He further said investment in the final calculation increased by only 2.19% when compared with the provisional estimate.
He further said investment in the final calculation increased by only 2.19% when compared with the provisional estimate.
A 1% growth in the GDP requires at least 4% of investment in Bangladesh. "How an additional 2% investment can raise GDP by 1.51%?," questioned the former IMF economist.
"It is difficult to find the link between the growth data provided by the BBS and the reality," said Dr Zahid Hossain, former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office.
He said the resource balances of exports and imports widened by more than 32% in the last fiscal year.
The government expenditure increased by only 8.60% over the year in a nominal term, which would be around 3% excluding the inflation rate. There was stagnation in investment as reflected by a lower rate of private sector credit growth, he added.
Areas where GDP growth increase
The size of the GDP reached Tk3530,185 crore in the last fiscal year in a nominal term having 11.35% higher growth than Tk3170,469 crore in FY20. The BBS found GDP worth Tk3484,033 crore in the provisional estimate, which increased by Tk46,152 crore in the final estimation.
Per capita GNI was Tk197199 in FY20, which reached Tk219,738 in FY21. The income of each person increased by Tk22,539 on average, up by 11.43% over the last fiscal year.
Analysing the BBS data, it found that the rebound of the industry sector helped the economy achieve remarkable growth in the last fiscal year.
The final calculation of the BBS found 10.29% growth in the industry sector, which was only 6% in the provisional estimate. The sector grew only by 3.61% in FY20.
The share of the industry reached 34.61 according to the final estimate, which was 33.89 in the provisional estimate.
The agriculture sector finally grew by 3.17% in the last fiscal year, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the provisional estimate of 2.37% but 0.25 percentage points lower than in FY20.
The share of the sector to GDP dropped to 12.09% in FY21 from 12.44% in FY20.
Growth of the service sector and its relative share to the GDP reduced in the final estimation compared to the provisional estimate.
The BBS earlier found 5.86% growth in the service sector, which dropped to 5.73% in the final estimate. Share of the sector reduced to 53.30% of the GDP in the last fiscal year from 53.42% in FY20.
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Shoaib Daniyal
@ShoaibDaniyal
"Hasina’s internal problems are linked to external dependencies. Politically reliant on New Delhi, she is finding it increasingly difficult to manage the ramifications of India’s turn towards Hindu nationalism..." -
@PaliwalAvihttps://twitter.com/ShoaibDaniyal/status/1547304109115469824?s=20&a...
The ground under Sheikh Hasina’s feet is shifting
With elections in 2023 and debt repayment schedules kicking off in 2024, it seems only a matter of time for the veneer of stability to lose its sheen. The risk of dislocation of this so-called house of cards has only been rising in recent years.
Bangladesh’s foreign minister AK Abdul Momen arrived in India last month to fight political fires. But he found himself dealing with massive floods that hit Sylhet and Assam. Nature has its ways to convey that not all is well in India’s near-east. Far from the glitz about Bangladesh’s economic success, on display during the recent inauguration of the Padma Bridge, clampdown on Islamists, and shrewd management of big power rivalries, is a parallel potent reality of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarianism, heightened polarisation, and economic distress. As an Indian official mentioned to me, and a Bangladeshi official echoed, Hasina “has built a house of cards”.https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/the-ground-under-sheikh-hasi...
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Surge in services demand helps steady India’s economy in August | Mint
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/surge-in-services-demand-helps-...
Electricity consumption, a widely used proxy to gauge demand in industrial and manufacturing sectors, showed activity is picking up. Numbers from India’s power ministry showed peak demand met in August jumped to 185 gigawatt from 167 gigawatt a month ago. However, rising unemployment numbers tempered the overall optimism, with data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. showing the jobless rate climbed to 8.3 percent -- the highest level in a year. That shows the current pace of expansion isn’t enough to create jobs for the million plus people joining the workforce every month.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-energy-climate-change-f...
When electricity projects now in the pipeline are completed in the next few years, Pakistan will have about 38,000 MW of capacity, Gauhar said. But its current summertime peak demand is 25,000 MW, with electricity use falling to 12,000 MW in the winter, he said.
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Bangladesh now has a power generation capacity in excess of 21,000 MW. On the other hand, power demand and generation in mid-February this year were in the range of 9,000 MW, less than half of the overall capacity. Even last summer the peak demand and generation hardly reached 12,000 MW. Considering the fact that the ideal power generation reserve margin for most countries is 10-20 percent, the excess capacity in Bangladesh is a mismatch with the demand, for being "overly fatty" so to say.
https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/news/power-generation-banglade...
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Pakistan's power production hits record high at 24,284MW in 2021
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2309291/pakistans-power-production-hit...
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Economic Survey 2021-22: Pakistan installed capacity 41,557 MW in 2022
https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_22/PES14-ENERGY.pdf
Pakistan's Electricity Generation Capacity
The total electricity generation capacity during July-April 2022 has increased by 11.5 percent and it reached 41,557 MW from 37261 MW during the same period last fiscal
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