Comment by Riaz Haq on August 14, 2023 at 11:50am

• Decades of China's one-child policy have led to an aging population and lopsided ratio between elderly and youth.
• The country is on pace to lose nearly half of its current population by 2100, per Terry Group, which says that bodes poorly for economic growth.
• Chinese government data showed China's population shrank in 2022 for the first time since 1961.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aging-population-demo...

 

China's aging population will have a direct impact on its ability to compete with the US and other nations on the world stage, according to a report from consultancy firm Terry Group.

The latest United Nations projections say China will lose nearly 50% of its population by the end of this century. Further, the Terry Group researchers say it's not only overall population decline that poses a threat, but the climbing proportion of elderly people.

In 1990, 5% of Chinese people were 65 or older. Thats nearly tripled to 14% today, and the Terry Group anticipates the cohort making up 30% of the population by 2050.

These skewed proportions are "pushing China's overall dependency burden back up," the authors wrote. "In 1975, there were thirteen times as many children as elderly in China. By 2050, the UN projects that there will be twice as many elderly as children."

https://defence.pk/attachments/1691527311525-png.944626/" alt="1691527311525.png" title="1691527311525.png" width="800" height="699" class="CToWUd a6T"/>

Over several decades, China has undergone a shift from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. This year, China's population shrank for the first time since 1961, Chinese government data illustrate, and Terry Group researchers highlighted that old-age dependency burdens are climbing, which amount to a "demographic gauntlet."

"China's population is not only aging, but is also entering a gathering decline that will be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse," Terry Group researchers noted. "Gone are the days when China's deep reservoir of labor seemed inexhaustible."

According to the consultancy firm, by the next decade, the country will be losing an average of 7 million working-age adults each year, which will accelerate to 12 million a year by the 2050s.

The UN projects China's working-age population to shrink by three-fifths by 2100, which in turn will put pressure on young people and government initiatives to support that cohort.

For comparison, between 1990 and 2010 when China's demographics were favorable, its working-age population grew 1.7% per year on average. Those figures are on pace to soon reverse, and instead the working-age population will contract at an annual rate of 1%.

"All other things being equal, this nearly 3 percentage point reduction in the growth rate in the working-age population will translate into an equivalent reduction in the growth rate in employment and potential GDP," the researchers said.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported Sunday that Beijing officials have been warning experts not to talk about the economy in a negative light. Specifically, sources told the FT that they weren't supposed to talk about slumping foreign investment, deflation, and faltering growth.

The crackdown follows months of data that point to a muted post-pandemic rebound in China and no economic recovery in sight.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 14, 2023 at 5:05pm

Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) in Pakistan was reported at 69.03 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Pakistan - Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on August of 2023.

https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/age-dependency-ratio-percent-...


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Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) in India was reported at 47.5 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. India - Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on August of 2023.

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/age-dependency-ratio-percent-of-...

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Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) in Bangladesh was reported at 47.09 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Bangladesh - Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on August of 2023.

https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/age-dependency-ratio-percen...

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 4, 2023 at 4:52pm

Pakistan's interim PM says Saudi Arabia to invest $25 bln over next five years


https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistans-interim-pm-say...

By Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam


ISLAMABAD, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will invest up to $25 billion in Pakistan over the next two to five years in various sectors, Pakistan's caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar said on Monday, adding his government would also revive a stalled privatisation process.

The South Asian nation is embarking on a tricky path to economic recovery under a caretaker government after a $3 billion loan programme, approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July, averted a sovereign debt default.

Kakar, speaking to journalists at his official residence, said Saudi Arabia's investment would come in the mining, agriculture and information technology sectors, and was a part of a push to increase foreign direct investment in Pakistan.

There was no immediate response to a Reuters request to the Saudi Arabian government for comment on Kakar's remarks.

If confirmed, a series of investments worth $25 billion would be the biggest ever by the kingdom in Pakistan.

A longtime ally of Riyadh, Pakistan is dealing with a balance of payments crisis and requires billions of dollars in foreign exchange to finance its trade deficit and repay its international debts in the current financial year.

Kakar did not specify projects Riyadh was looking at for investment, but last month Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) said it was open to bringing in Saudi Arabia's wealth fund as one of its partners in Pakistan's Reko Diq gold and copper mine.

Pakistan's untapped mineral deposits are conservatively valued at about $6 trillion, said Kakar, whose government is meant to be an interim set up to oversee national elections scheduled for November but are expected to be delayed by months.

Barrick considers the Reko Diq mine one of the world's largest underdeveloped copper-gold areas and it owns a 50% stake, with the remaining 50% owned by the governments of Pakistan and the province of Balochistan.

Kakar also said his government would push to complete two privatisation deals, probably for state-run power sector entities, in the next six months, and would also look to privatise another government owned enterprise outside the energy sector.

Pakistan's state owned enterprises have long been an area of concern with bleeding financials adding to financial stress. Recently Pakistan added struggling state-run Pakistan International Airlines to the privatisation list again.

The privatisation process has largely stalled in the country with selling of state assets a politically sensitive issue that many elected governments have shied away from.

Reporting by Gibran Peshimam; Additional reporting by Aziz El Yaakoubi in Riyadh; Editing by William Maclean

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