Comment by Riaz Haq on January 25, 2019 at 7:59pm

Pakistan foreign policy 101
Ashraf Jehangir QaziUpdated January 26, 2019

https://www.dawn.com/news/1459874/pakistan-foreign-policy-101

Pakistan has 10 major external relationships. Primarily: India, China, the US, and Afghanistan; and significantly: Iran, the GCC countries, Russia, the European Union (which still includes the UK,) the Central Asian states, and the UN.

India is Pakistan’s major adversary. China is Pakistan’s only strategic partner. The US is still the world’s mightiest and only comprehensive global power. Afghanistan is a force multiplier for Pakistan’s security or insecurity. Iran confronts Pakistan with critical choices.

Powerful vested interests define the national interest and make foreign policy. What is to be done?

The GCC countries are a major source of remittances and ‘brotherly’ assistance which almost always entails an embarrassing price.

Russia in partnership with China is a significant counterforce to the US and its alliance with India. Moreover, it has the potential to bring about a less imbalanced Russian policy towards India and Pakistan.

The EU is a major market and the Pakistani community in the UK (and the US) can be a foreign policy asset.

Central Asia can provide ‘strategic depth’ to Pakistan’s connectivity-based diplomacy. Improving cooperation with Russia can help here also.

The UN may seem irrelevant. It is not. It is where a country’s image, profile and voice are confirmed and contested. It is the forum in which the credibility of a foreign policy is measured. Its agencies, funds and organisations can be important knowledge-intensive and problem-solving assets.

Due to space limitations only Pakistan’s four ‘primary’ relationships will be very briefly commented on.

India: The core issues for Pakistan are progress towards a Kashmir settlement acceptable to opinion in the Valley and radically improving the horrendous human rights situation there. For India it is Pakistan’s use of “terrorist proxies”.

These core issues need to be addressed to the satisfaction of each other if dialogue is to be meaningful. Finding common ground for a negotiating process to be sustainable is a challenge.

Indian interference in Balochistan is a fact. However, the Balochistan ‘problem’ is not of India’s making. It is due to institutionalised bad governance and exploitation over decades.

Pakistan should continue to extend its hand of cooperation irrespective of a lack of response from India. It should keep the LoC quiet as best it can. It should build on the Kartarpur initiative. It should extend normal trading or MFN rights as promised. This is arguably a WTO obligation also.

Pakistan should offer travel, communications, confidence and security-building (including regular nuclear and water-management) discussions and proposals. Let India take its time to respond. Pakis­tan cannot lose by being consistent and reasonable.

Realistic rather than provocative narratives need to be developed. The people of both countries need to get to know each other more directly instead of through warped images.

Differences need to be contained, addressed and reduced through a realistic working relationship. This will enable South Asia to meet the survival challenges of the 21st century.

The leaders of both countries should make appropriate statements, stay in touch, and unfold a range of innovative initiatives. If India demurs, even after its elections, that is its problem.

China: The BRI and CPEC are golden opportunities for Pakistan. But they are not magic wands. Moreover, no other country is willing to invest on such a scale in Pakistan.

Pakistan needs to look after its own interests without making disconcerting public statements. It needs to assure the Chinese that it is a reliable economic and strategic partner.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 27, 2019 at 7:21am

Globalization of #Pakistan Army. It has global diplomatic footprint including defense diplomacy, conflict resolution, peacekeeping, international education and last by no means lest – #military sales and #defense cooperation. #pakistanarmedforces @TRTWorld https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/the-internationalisation-of-the-pa...

The Pakistan Army is making a concerted effort to relieve itself of its dependency on the US, and it might be working.
As the recent National Day military parade shows, the Pakistan Army now has a global diplomatic footprint that is turning into a multi-faceted force that includes defence diplomacy, conflict resolution and peacekeeping, international education and last by no means lest – military sales and defence cooperation.

It is a sharp contrast to September 11, 2001 – when under pressure and isolation threats, the then Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Musharraf buckled under American pressure. Almost two decades on, the Pakistan Army has become one of the most international armies in the world – more than three dozen militaries from around the world from Latin America to Australia are undergoing training in Pakistan’s various service staff colleges, and defence cooperation with emerging BRICS powers is at an all-time high.

The diversification also underpins the new geopolitical realities of the army – unlike 2001 – it has nothing to fear as its allies and strategic outreach diversifies beyond an old dependence on American equipment and financial aid.

The legacy of American dependency 

After September 11, 2001, one could hardly blame Musharraf as he realised the limitations of the army’s fighting position – after a decade of US sanctions following the Pressler Amendment, Pakistan’s military was in bad shape and could not challenge any American threats.

The Pakistan Air Force and the two dozen F-16s were hardly in a serviceable condition - its force was almost wholly just trained to fight on its eastern border rather than a counter-insurgency on the Afghan border as the Americans were demanding.

The US has been blackmailing Pakistan for almost three decades on the sale of F-16s, even the ones that Pakistan paid for were not delivered – and only after Pakistan agreed to take part in the global war on terror did F16s start arriving after two decades.

Even then Pakistan had to go to Turkey and Jordan for the delivery as a more reliable partner albeit with American permission. Pakistan is also yet to take delivery of Bell AH-1Z helicopter – the first batch was meant for delivery in 2017.

As of last autumn, it was reported that these latest sales are being blocked and kept in storage after Trump’s cancellation of military aid. It is here where American foreign military sales—while still in demand—are no more a considerable nuisance for Pakistan. Over the last decade, Pakistan has firmly moved away from dependency on American military equipment and towards new international partnerships and self-reliance through an indigenous weapons program.

Pakistan’s international training program 

Just as the US announced last year it would cut Pakistani military participation in its elite training institution, the Russians signed a historic first welcoming Pakistani officers at their top military academies and colleges. Not only is this a complete reversal of Pakistan’s Russia policy but also a new era of Pakistan’s defence diplomacy. Similarly, the two have now set up regular training exercises, and Pakistan has bought attack helicopters.

Beyond just being at the receiving end of training, Pakistan had become the first non-Western army to have a platoon commander at the Royal Military Academy of Sandhurst, when Major Uqbah Hadeed Malik became the first Pakistani instructor at the world’s premier defence academy. Under Uqbah’s command the finest British officers and international cadets went on to graduate – subsequently Uqbah’s successor, Major Umar Farooq won the prestigious Sovereign Platoon, the best-trained unit at Sandhurst.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 20, 2020 at 7:35am

Lowy Institute Power Index: Pakistan is a middle power in Asia.

The country’s overall score has remained unchanged over the past year.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40027514

Pakistan performs best in the future resources measure, where it places 7th, reflecting an anticipated demographic dividend to 2050. Its lowest ranking is in the economic relationships measure, coming in at 20th place.

In 2020, Pakistan saw its greatest improvement in economic capability, resilience and diplomatic influence, where it moved up one place. However, it has also slipped by two places in the defence networks measure relative to 2019.

Pakistan exerts less influence in the region than expected given its available resources, as indicated by the country’s negative power gap score. While Pakistan is a net underachiever in Asia, its negative power gap improved in 2020.

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Pakistan 15th most powerful country in Asia with biggest gains in diplomatic influence: Report


https://www.brecorder.com/news/40027514

Pakistan's major improvement has been in future resources measures, economic capability and resilience
India's overall score declined by 1.3 points as it trended down in cultural influence, future resources, economic relationships and diplomatic influence

Key figures

The report stated that in 2020, Pakistan had the biggest gains in diplomatic influence with (+3.8) points. However, it lost some points in cultural influence with (−3.9).

Elsewhere, it improved in resilience with (+1.3) points and future resources (+1.2) points, while trending down in defence networks with (−1.9) points. Its military capability stood at (−0.8) points and economic relationships at (−0.2) points. The score for economic capability remained unchanged this year.

Pakistan's major improvement has been in future resources measures, where it is placed on 7th rank reflecting an anticipated demographic dividend to 2050. Its lowest ranking is in the economic relationships measure, coming in at 20th place.

In 2020, Pakistan saw its greatest improvement in economic capability, resilience and diplomatic influence, where it moved up one place. However, it has also slipped by two places in the defence networks measure relative to 2019, the report mentioned.

Pakistan's negative power gap also improved in 2020, the report stated.

India's score declines

On the other hand, Pakistan's neighbouring country India lost the most points in cultural influence with (−5.3) points. Elsewhere, it trended down in future resources with (−4.9) points, economic relationships at (−2.9) points and diplomatic influence with (−2.6) points.

The report maintained that India's overall score declined by 1.3 points as compared to 2019. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic has also affected the economic forecast of the country for 2030.

India also slipped into 7th position for economic relationships, as it falls further behind in regional trade integration efforts. The decision to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership has been damaging in this regard.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 31, 2020 at 12:47pm

Pakistan to open diplomatic mission in Djibouti. #ImranKhan underlined the salience of #Pakistan’s “Engage #Africa” policy, which aims at forging closer ties with the continent by expanding Islamabad’s diplomatic footprint and deepening economic engagement http://v.aa.com.tr/2094111

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on Wednesday announced that his country would soon establish its resident diplomatic mission in Djibouti.

He made the announcement during a meeting with a 12-member parliamentary delegation of the African Union led by President National Assembly of Republic of Djibouti, Mohamed Ali Houmed, in capital Islamabad, according to a statement from prime minister office.

The delegation is on a week-long official visit to Pakistan.

Welcoming the delegation, Khan underlined the salience of Pakistan’s “Engage Africa” policy, which aims at forging closer ties with the continent by expanding Islamabad’s diplomatic footprint and deepening economic engagement.

Both sides affirmed the shared desire to broaden bilateral cooperation in diverse fields, the statement added.

The two sides also exchanged views on the importance of peace and security in neighboring regional context of both Pakistan and Djibouti.

Houmed, for his part, appreciated Pakistan’s “historical” support and expressed hope that visit of parliamentary delegation would help further consolidate Djibouti-Pakistan relations.

The chairman of Pakistan’s upper house -the Senate-, Sadiq Sanjrani, was also present during the meeting.

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