Comment by Riaz Haq on June 5, 2026 at 4:40pm

@SharadRaghavan

The $5 trillion GDP goal by 2025 was actively planned for in 2018. Today's data pegs India's FY26 GDP at ₹346.4 lakh crore

If exchange rates had stayed at 2018 levels, we would have hit $5 tn by now. But currently we're only at $3.6 tn.

Time to discard dollar-based targets?

https://x.com/sharadraghavan/status/2062904578262085833?s=61&t=...

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By late 2025, headlines celebrating India's ascent to the world's fourth-largest economy dominated Indian media coverage. Yet just months later, in April 2026, the Times of India reported that IMF data showed India's GDP, measured in US dollar terms, stood at approximately $3.92 trillion in 2025, making it the world's sixth-largest economy.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook showed that India's GDP growth still clocks in at 6.5 percent — an impressive-looking figure. However, the currency depreciation may weigh on real GDP growth.

Xinhua reported that the Indian rupee has continued to weaken against the US dollar, hitting a record low on May 20, when it briefly touched 96.9650 per dollar. More recently, the exchange rate stood at 94.80 at the time of writing. Industry insiders expect that if the rupee continues to depreciate rapidly, the Reserve Bank of India may be forced to intervene more actively, while Indian government agencies may already be preparing countermeasures. In addition, the government could also roll out measures aimed at attracting foreign capital inflows, said Xinhua.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202606/1362523.shtml

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 6, 2026 at 4:36pm

India's market capitalization is actively at risk of falling below Canada's. After slipping from the world's 5th largest market to 7th, India's total equity capitalization sits at roughly $4.84 trillion, bringing it dangerously close to Canada's roughly $4.5 to $4.9 trillion range and threatening to drop India to 8th globally. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

This sudden shift is driven by a combination of global macroeconomic factors and structural market dynamics: [1]

• The AI Boom & Capital Rotation: Foreign portfolio investors have pulled over $24 billion out of Indian equities in 2026 to capitalize on the soaring tech and AI-driven semiconductor markets in Taiwan and South Korea. [1, 2]
• Earnings & Valuation Pressures: Indian benchmarks (like the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex) have suffered double-digit percentage drops in 2026. High valuations, a subdued corporate earnings outlook, and the weak Indian Rupee have severely dampened investor sentiment. [1, 2, 3]
• Macro Risks: Persistent Middle East tensions (such as the US-Iran conflict) and global inflation concerns have weighed heavily on India's import-dependent economy. [1, 2, 3]

Despite this short-term underperformance, some institutional analysts remain optimistic about long-term recovery in India. [1]

If you'd like to dive deeper, I can:

• Compare the sector weightings of the Canadian and Indian stock markets.
• Provide historical valuation multiples (such as P/E ratios) to gauge current entry points.
• Break down the specific sectors (like financials vs. resources) driving each market.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 7, 2026 at 4:32pm

Explainer: An Indian gold firm allegedly inflated revenue by $159 billion using its Swiss unit


https://www.reuters.com/world/india/an-indian-gold-firm-allegedly-i...


MUMBAI, June 5 - An official Indian investigation into gold company Rajesh Exports (REXP.NS) has alleged that the firm overstated revenue of its Swiss refining unit Valcambi to the tune of $159 billion - a figure unheard ​of in the country's accounting probes.
The scale of the alleged misreporting, released publicly by the markets regulator on Wednesday, ‌has raised questions about how investors and analysts missed this, especially because India's state-run insurance giant LIC owns 11% of the company.

Rajesh Exports has denied wrongdoing. On Friday, in an exchange statement, the company said, "the major point mis-interpreted with regard to the revenues of the company is totally misplaced." ​LIC did not responded to Reuters queries.
Valcambi declined to comment, adding that it has no information about the issue, ​which concerns its controlling shareholder.
Here are some of the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) preliminary ⁠findings.

REVENUE INFLATION AND VALCAMBI

Valcambi, one of the world’s largest refiners of precious metals, was owned by European Gold Refineries until ​a 2015 all-cash sale to Rajesh Exports.
SEBI said Rajesh Exports allegedly inflated its reported India revenue by 15.15 trillion rupees ($158.93 billion) ​between April 2020 and March 2025. Almost all of the company's revenue was attributed to Valcambi, the group’s main operating entity, though its standalone accounts showed revenue of $70 million to $100 million, SEBI sai

Rajesh Exports Chairman Rajesh Mehta did not comment on the difference between Valcambi's revenues and the Indian ​unit's financials on Thursday, but he told Reuters all disclosures were correct.
"There seems to be some miscommunication with SEBI and ​a gap of information. The financials are perfect," Mehta said, adding that the company "will continue to cooperate."
Rajesh Exports is listed in Mumbai and its ‌shares ⁠have fallen 10% in the wake of SEBI's order.

WHAT DOES RAJESH EXPORTS DO?

Rajesh Mehta and his brother started Rajesh Exports in 1989 in Bengaluru.
It has since expanded to 12 countries and calls itself a "global leader in the gold business," spanning refining to retailing.
The company gained global prominence after its 2015 acquisition of Valcambi for $400 million.
MISSING MINES IN AFRICA

SEBI has alleged that Rajesh Exports disclosed ​to Indian exchanges that it ​invested 10.35 billion Indian rupees ⁠in gold mines in Africa.

But an examination of the financial statements of its subsidiaries did not find "supporting documentation demonstrating the existence of the alleged investment in gold mines in Africa," according to ​SEBI's order.
When asked, Rajesh Exports told SEBI that investments in gold mines existed through foreign ​subsidiaries and the ⁠investment figures were “tallying and correct,” the order showed.
FICTITIOUS TRADES

SEBI said Rajesh Exports recorded "fictitious revenue" in its dealings with a local broker. More than 114 billion rupees were booked as sales and purchases despite a lack of evidence of genuine transactions or banking links.
SEBI started ⁠its probe ​into the company in 2024 after a complaint cited large, outstanding trade ​receivables.
SEBI appointed a forensic auditor who could verify only a fraction of the company's reported numbers due to a lack of documentation, the regulator said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 9, 2026 at 8:23am

India’s TCS chair says AI agents may equal headcount, dampen hiring | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-tcs-chairman-expects-ai-...


BENGALURU, June 9 (Reuters) - India's largest software services exporter Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.NS), opens new tab expects IT companies to slow down hiring, as the company moves towards ​having an equal number of employees and AI agents in its workforce, Chairman ‌N Chandrasekaran said at the company's annual general meeting on Tuesday.
India's $315-billion IT sector has been grappling with investor concerns that AI could disrupt its traditional, labour-intensive business model. The industry, one of India's ​largest private sector employers, has already slowed down hiring with geopolitical turmoil also denting client demand.


Mumbai-headquartered TCS does not ​plan to downsize staff, but will hire less, Chandrasekaran said. Last July, ⁠it cut more than 12,000 jobs, while headcount fell by more than 23,000 on a net ​basis in the fiscal year ended March 2026.
"If the company has half a million employees, ​the day is not far when the company will have half a million AI agents... The company's employees and AI agents will work together, and that will be the future."

TCS shares have fallen ​more than 32% so far in 2026, compared with a 25% drop in the Nifty IT (.NIFTYIT), opens new tab ​index.
Advanced AI tools have shaken up the way companies work across industries from Silicon Valley to media ‌and ⁠IT in the last few years as businesses seek efficiencies while staying on top of rapid technological changes.
Chandrasekaran said increased usage of AI agents would curb the number of people hired by both TCS and the broader IT industry as tasks are automated. At the same time, he ​said new roles and ​opportunities would emerge ⁠as companies adapt to AI-driven ways of working.

"Some of the work being done will go to AI agents. That will be the ​nature of the transition that we have to go through ​not only ⁠as a company, as an industry, and as a country," he said.
Chandrasekaran's comments carry added weight as TCS is India's largest IT firm by both market cap and number of employees.
The ⁠company's annualised ​AI revenue crossed $2.3 billion in the quarter ended March ​31. Chandrasekaran said 100% of TCS' revenue will have an AI component before the end of the decade.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 10, 2026 at 7:54pm

India’s growth story faces its toughest test yet in Modi’s third term

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/indias-growth-toughest-test-modi-12...

Foreign portfolio investors have sold Indian equities worth $29.5 billion so far this year, versus $18.9 billion over all of last year.
India’s growth remains strong, but the economy faces headwinds from weaker consumption, fragile investment sentiment, higher energy costs, and more selective global capital, an expert said.
The Modi government has finalized only 2 out of 30 reforms across two years, according to data from CSIS.

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Global equity research firm Bernstein, in an open letter to Modi in April, warned that AI advancements threaten the quality jobs in India’s information technology sector, which could impact domestic consumption. It added that the country also faces a risk of being a “permanent consumer in the AI economy,” as unlike China and the U.S., it does not own any AI models.

Venugopal Garre, managing director and head of India research at Bernstein, told CNBC last week that the country has missed the AI boat, and the only proxy AI play it can participate in is through data centers. But that will not replace the high-quality jobs lost in the IT sector, he said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 12, 2026 at 4:34pm

Indian investors lose faith in growth story as market returns stall - Nikkei Asia

https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/indian-investors-lose-fait...

BENGALURU -- While India's economy continues to expand faster than most major peers, a growing number of retail investors are pulling back from domestic equities and questioning whether the country's future industries can deliver the returns that once made India a favorite among global investors.

Last month, inflows into equity mutual funds dropped by 40%, the most in three years, the Association of Mutual Funds in India said on Wednesday.

In addition, India's systematic investment plans (SIPs), a preferred vehicle for retail investors, saw stoppage ratios exceed 100% in both March and April, meaning the number of SIPs that were discontinued or completed were higher than the number of new ones registered. The ratio improved to 95.46% in May, but was still higher than historical standards of around 50% to 70% even as SIP inflows by value remained robust.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 12, 2026 at 5:16pm

Modi’s 12 Years: A Lost Decade For the Economy

https://youtu.be/Q-WfRZpN8s4?is=ml3o_LhjvqEFtCgT


Prof Arun Kumar says big poljcy induced mistakes in economic management have created sub par growth, stagnant incomes, low private investment and increased inequality.

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Economist Dr. Arun Kumar defines the 12-year Modi administration as a "lost decade" for India, citing policy failures like demonetization and a flawed GST that severely impacted the unorganized sector and hindered employment. Kumar contends that official GDP figures are unreliable, concealing a structural crisis marked by stagnant consumption and economic distress.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 14, 2026 at 9:06pm

Raghuram Rajan questions Indias GDP growth narrative, says something is off - India Today

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/raghuram-rajan-questions-i...

Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has questioned India's economic growth narrative, arguing that weak corporate investment and slowing foreign capital inflows were difficult to reconcile with official GDP figures showing the economy expanding at more than 7 per cent.

In an exclusive interview with India Today TV, Rajan said "something is off" in the economy, pointing to a persistent disconnect between headline growth numbers and investment activity. "I don't understand it. If the economy was growing at this rate, you would definitely expect investment to be higher. Something is off," he said.

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