Israel and Pakistan Acquire Submarine Fleet for Second Strike Capability

Israel does not trust Iran just as Pakistan does not trust India. While Israel is preparing for eventual nuclear-armed Iran in the future, Pakistan is threatened by India's growing nuclear triad and atomic arsenal today. So what are Israel and Pakistan doing to deter potential nuclear attacks by their regional rivals? They are both building sea-based nuclear second strike capability with diesel-electric submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP).


Israel's Submarine Fleet:

Israel has just taken delivery of the 5th of 6 Dolphin II class AIP-equipped submarines built by Germany. More than 225 feet long, the diesel-electric Dolphin II class is part attack submarine, part nuclear strike ship and part commando taxi.  Each sub has 10 tubes. Four of these tubes are larger 26-inch tubes—the size is rare for a Western-built submarine—capable of launching small commando teams or firing larger nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The remaining six tubes measure at 21 inches, according to Real Clear Defense.

Israel's German-built Dolphin Class AIP Sub


Several German defense ministry officials interviewed by German news magazine Der Spiegel believe that Israel intends for these submarines to carry nuclear weapons. The missiles can also be launched “using a previously secret hydraulic ejection system,” the magazine reported.

Diesel-Electric AIP Vs Nuclear-Powered Subs:

A key requirement for submarines is to be stealthy—and the Dolphin II is indeed very quiet. The trick is in the submarine’s air-independent propulsion fuel cells, which provide power under the surface as the diesel engines—used for running on the surface—rest and recharge.

This system is quieter than the nuclear-powered engines on American and Russian submarines, which must constantly circulate engine coolant. Nuclear submarines are virtually unlimited in terms of range, and are better used for deep-water operations. But Israel has no need for nuclear-powered subs when quiet diesel subs can do the same job, according to Real Clear Defense.


Pakistan's AIP Submarine Fleet:

The details of Pakistan's planned submarine fleet are not clear yet. However, Pakistan too is acquiring a fleet of AIP-equipped diesel-electric submarines.

Pakistan Navy operates a fleet of five diesel-electric submarines and three MG110 miniature submarines (SSI). The nucleus of the fleet includes two Agosta-70 and three modern Agosta-90B submarines. Pakistan's third Agosta-90B, the S 139 Hamza, was constructed indigenously and features the DCNS MESMA (Module d'EnergieSous-Marin Autonome) air-independent propulsion (AIP) system. Pakistan retrofitted the two earlier Agosta-90B vessels with the MESMA AIP propulsion system when they underwent overhaul in 2011, according to Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Model of Chinese-made S20 Sub Ordered by Pakistan

Pakistan is expanding and modernizing its underwater fleet with 8 additional AIP-equipped submarines ordered from China. Whether the Chinese submarines are the S-20 export derivative of the Type-039A/Type-041 Yuan-class submarine, or a bespoke design, is unclear. But the Yuan has also been mentioned, and according to government officials. If the deal transpires, it will be the largest ever Sino-Pakistani deal. Mansoor Ahmed of Quaid-e-Azam University's Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, believes the submarines will each cost $ 250 million to $325 million.

Mansoor Ahmed told Defense News that AIP-equipped conventional submarines "provide reliable second strike platforms, [and] an assured capability resides with [nuclear-powered attack and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines], which are technically very complex and challenging to construct and operate compared to SSKs, and also very capital intensive."

Balance of Terror as Deterrence:

Let's hope that nuclear deterrence works and the world never again sees the use of the growing stockpile of nukes in South Asia, the Middle East or anywhere else. Here's the full video of a recent interview with Pakistan's General Khalid Kidawi on Pakistan 2nd strike capability:

https://youtu.be/CNZCw0BXKyE





I think senior American analyst and South Asia watcher Stephen Cohen summed up the current situation in South Asia when he said: "The alphabet agencies—ISI, RAW, and so forth—are often the chosen instrument of state policy when there is a conventional (and now a nuclear) balance of power, and the diplomatic route seems barren."

I see little likelihood of full-scale war between India and Pakistan. The best way for the two nuclear armed neighbors to proceed is sustained diplomatic engagement to resolve all outstanding issues including Kashmir. If the diplomatic route remains barren, there will be continuation of covert and proxy wars in the region.

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Views: 4374

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 27, 2022 at 5:59pm

Pakistan PM Sharif, Turkish President Erdogan jointly inaugurate new warship for Pakistani Navy - The Hindu

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-pm-sharif-turk...

In response to a question about increased defence cooperation between the two nations, Mr. Niazi noted: "Both militaries are continuously exchanging knowledge and expertise. Construction and upgradation projects such as 17,000 tonne Fleet Tanker, PN-MILGEM and Agosta 90B submarines, Super Mushak trainers, UAV drones, and so on are evidence of this strong friendship and military cooperation." Under the bilateral project, Turkey was tasked to build four corvette warships for the Pakistan Navy — two in Istanbul and two in Karachi.

The first corvette warship for the Pakistan Navy known as PNS Babar was launched in Istanbul in August 2021 while the foundation stone for the second ship PNS Badr was laid in Karachi in May 2022, another report on the inauguration ceremony by the Dawn newspaper said.

Mr. Sharif during the inauguration informed that the fourth warship would be delivered in February 2025.

The new warships have a length of 99 metres, a displacement capacity of 2,400 tonnes, and a speed of 29 nautical miles.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 28, 2024 at 1:35pm

India Wasting Money on Nuclear Submarines, No need to Compete with Indian Navy : Pakistan Navy Commodore (R) – Indian Defence Research Wing

https://idrw.org/pakistan-navy-commodore-r-rules-out-development-of...


Ex-Commodore Sajid Mahmood Shahzad says Pakistan Navy has Babur cruise missiles that can be launched from Pakistani diesel-electric submarines as a deterrent.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 5, 2025 at 6:15pm

PakDefOSINT
@PakDefTeam
The LABGENE (Laboratório de Geração de Energia Nucleoelétrica) is the Brazilian Navy’s full-scale, land-based prototype for nuclear propulsion, situated at the Navy Technological Centre in São Paulo (CTMSP) and the Aramar facility in Iperó. As part of the Navy Nuclear Program (PNM), LABGENE replicates the nuclear plant of the future nuclear submarine, Álvaro Alberto, comprising primary reactor systems, steam generators, turbogenerators, and a dynamometric brake that simulates the actual submarine shaft resistance.

In collaboration with Nuclep, the Navy Directorate for Nuclear and Technological Development (DDNM), and CTMSP, LABGENE assembles, tests, and validates key reactor components, such as heat exchangers, accumulator vessels, containment tanks, and control instrumentation.

Beyond submarine propulsion, LABGENE stimulates broader industrial and scientific advancement in areas like uranium fuel cycle mastery and civilian nuclear R&D Now in advanced stages of assembly and equipment delivery, it's a cornerstone of Brazil’s strategic goal to commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by the early 2030s.

Under the recent Brazil–Pakistan defense cooperation MoU signed at LAAD‑2025 in Rio de Janeiro, both nations have opened a channel to deepen technological and industrial collaboration, potentially extending across their naval nuclear ambitions. If both countries elect to extend their MoU into naval nuclear cooperation, they could share best practices on reactor safety, low-enriched uranium fuel cycles, and crew training methodologies. Brazil’s lab‑scale facilities and training modules—already designed for the Álvaro Alberto submarine—could complement Pakistan’s hands‑on experience with propulsion systems, accelerating Pakistan’s path toward its own nuclear‑powered submarine. Technical exchanges might cover reactor instrumentation, fuel pellet manufacturing, land‑based reactor testing, and even joint R&D. Operational collaboration of this kind could also enhance nonproliferation assurances: Brazil’s use of low‑enriched uranium (LEU) under IAEA safeguards and Pakistan’s adherence to peaceful propulsion goals would help ensure transparent development and bolster legitimacy in the naval nuclear domain.

Model of SSN Alvaro Alberto

https://x.com/PakDefTeam/status/1940818576270614789

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 18, 2025 at 8:10am

11-0 For Pakistan? Pak Navy's AIP Submarine Fleet Nears 11 While India Struggles To Induct It's 1st AIP-Sub

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/n-india-struggles-to-induct-its-aip-sub/

The state of the Indian Navy’s submarines is as dismal as that of the Indian Air Force’s fighter squadrons. It has failed to induct a single Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) equipped submarine so far, while the Pakistan Navy is swiftly advancing towards its goal of augmenting its AIP-equipped submarine fleet to 11.

With the indigenously developed AIP system still not operational, the Indian Navy is likely to scrap the project to build three more French-origin Scorpene submarines and throw its weight behind the construction of AIP-equipped diesel-electric stealth submarines, built in collaboration with German firm Thyssenkrupp (TKMS).

Indian media has quoted government sources indicating that the Navy may decide to stop pursuing additional Scorpene submarines and will go full throttle for the construction of the six German-origin diesel-electric stealth submarines at Mazagon Docks Ltd.

The new Scorpene submarines were to be bigger, with nearly double the endurance of the present batch. The cost negotiations for the three more Scorpenes were completed in the last financial year. But it is still awaiting the nod from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS).

The CCS is considering the prudence of ordering three more Scorpenes, when the German submarines are “a generation ahead” of them. The CCS will also be assessing if the MDL can manage two complex submarine-building projects at the same time, according to the media report.

AIP-powered conventional diesel-electric submarines (SSKs) are midway between nuclear-powered boats and non-AIP SSKs. It allows an SSK to remain submerged for 10 to 14 days without needing to surface to charge its batteries, which might get it detected.

Other SSKs can stay underwater for roughly 48 hours. The fuel-cell-based AIP is unique, as it generates its hydrogen requirement on board.

An AIP enhances a submarine’s underwater endurance between battery charges by three to four times, thus reducing its vulnerability to detection.

The Indian Navy presently has 17 conventional submarines. Apart from the six Scorpene submarines inducted recently, the rest are over 30 years old and are fast approaching their decommissioning date.

The plans were to retrofit these six Scorpene submarines with indigenously developed AIP technology. As per the “jumboisation” plans, the operational submarine would be cut in half and a new AIP section would be inserted, increasing its length and weight. French shipbuilder Naval Group was to assist in the complex procedure.

After this, the technology will undergo further testing before being fitted into the remaining Scorpene-class submarines. Experts have pointed out that upgrading a weapons platform with new technology will reduce operational readiness, as the repairs will take at least a year.

INS Kalvari, which started its major refit this year, will not be getting its AIP upgrade as the system is still under development by the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

The fuel cell-based AIP system, developed by DRDO’s Naval Materials Research Lab with L&T as the prime industry partner, is still not operationally available. The Navy is hopeful that the technology will be ready by the time the second Scorpene (INS Khanderi) comes for her scheduled normal maintenance refit in mid-2026.

The AIP program was sanctioned by the government in 2014 with a budget of INR 270 crore and was scheduled to be completed by June 2017. The project is already eight years behind schedule.

The Indian Navy doesn’t operate a single AIP-equipped submarine yet. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Navy’s all three French Agosta-90B (PNS Khalid, Saad, and Hamza) are powered by AIPs.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 4, 2025 at 10:02am

Christopher Clary
@clary_co
"Pakistan is trying to build its third leg of the nuclear triad by equipping its Agosta-90B boats with 450-km range Babur-3 cruise missiles. The Hangor-class boats will certainly have the Babur-3 missiles," an officer told Times of India.

https://x.com/clary_co/status/1985534168349163668

-----------


Rajat Pandit
@rajatpTOI
India’s major naval combat edge over Pakistan will begin to somewhat erode from next year onwards when the latter begins inducting eight advanced Hangor-class diesel-electric submarines from China.

https://x.com/rajatpTOI/status/1985530561495253379

------

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-will-have-to-conten...

India’s major naval combat edge over Pakistan will begin to somewhat erode from next year onwards when the latter begins inducting eight advanced Hangor-class diesel-electric submarines from China. India’s long-pending conventional submarine-building plan, in sharp contrast, is yet to even kick off.
Pakistan Navy chief Admiral Naveed Ashraf has confirmed in interviews to Chinese state media that the first Hangor-class submarine will enter active service next year. All eight boats, four each being built in China and Pakistan, under the estimated $5 billion deal, will be delivered by 2028. They will boost Pakistan’s ability to patrol the north Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, he said.

The Hangor or Type 039A Yuan-class submarines, in addition t ..

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/125072697.cms?utm_so...

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 4, 2025 at 1:48pm

AI Overview
Does Pakistan pose a bigger threat to India after Babur-III ...
Pakistan is integrating its nuclear-capable Babur-3 sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM) onto its new diesel-electric Hangor-class submarines to establish a submarine-based second-strike capability. These AIP (air-independent propulsion) equipped submarines are designed to remain submerged for longer periods, making the Babur-3 a more survivable nuclear deterrent. While the Hangor-class submarines are being built, the Babur-3 is expected to be integrated into the fleet once they are operational.

Key points on Pakistan's AIP subs and Babur-3
Nuclear triad: The integration of the Babur-3 missile on the Hangor submarines is seen as a key step to complete Pakistan's nuclear triad (land, air, and sea) and provide a credible second-strike capability.
Hangor-class submarines: These are modern, diesel-electric submarines with AIP systems, based on China's Type 039B (Yuan) class. The AIP allows them to stay submerged for longer, enhancing stealth and survivability.
Babur-3 missile: The Babur-3 is a subsonic cruise missile with a range of about 450–700 km and features terrain-hugging and sea-skimming capabilities. Pakistan successfully tested it from a submerged platform in 2017.
Integration status: The Hangor-class submarines are being built, with the first having been launched in 2024 and subsequent ones following. The Babur-3 missile is expected to be integrated into these submarines, though official confirmation of specific weapon system armaments is limited.
Strategic significance: The development adds a significant sea-based deterrent to Pakistan's naval capabilities, complicating regional naval power dynamics and providing a standoff strike option.

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