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Multi-Year Bull Market Forecast For Pakistan

Elliot Wave theorist Mark Galasiewski is forecasting continuation of multi-year bull market in Pakistan. This forecasts marks an unusual agreement of  a technical analyst with fundamental research done by  Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs who recently  reiterated Pakistan's place on its growth map

 The Elliott Wave Theory, formulated in 1939 by Ralph Nelson Elliot,  is the basis of technical analysis that some traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors.

Here are some excepts of a recent interview of Elliot Theorist Mark Galasiewski on what he calls the "Indian Ocean Renaissance":

".... there are various ways to make long-term investment decisions. For example, Warren Buffett has shown that picking individual stocks can provide good returns over time. But it's a very
labor-intensive and time-consuming process, to research companies thoroughly enough to have the kind of conviction that he does. And his “buy and hold” strategy means that he suffers significant drawdowns in
his portfolio at times -- like during the 2007-2009 crash.

Elliott wave analysis gives you the opportunity to make long-term bets with a similar conviction -- but with a fraction of the elbow grease. Instead
of pouring over hundreds of quarterly reports and legal documents, you look for Elliott wave patterns in the charts of market indexes. Those patterns reflect investors' collective bias, bullish or bearish. (I won't go into details of why this is so; our Club EWI has tons of free reports explaining the mechanics of the Elliott Wave Principle.)

So, knowing what part of the Elliott wave pattern your market is in, you know how the pattern should progress from there, ideally. And that gives
you a probabilistic forecast for the trend. It doesn't work 100% of the time (what does), but our subscribers remember more than one successful forecast we've made using Elliott waves.

For example, on March 23, 2009 -- at the time when almost no one felt bullish -- we issued a special report to our subscribers forecasting a multi-year bull market in Indian stocks. Two weeks later, we identified three more markets in the region -- Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia -- that we believed were also likely to enjoy an "Indian Ocean Renaissance."

India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Indonesia have all since generated some of the best returns among global stock markets. Without knowledge of the Elliott
Wave Principle, it would have been difficult to forecast the boom -- especially given the dismal news events at the time. Do you remember the headlines in early 2009?

The world was engulfed by the global
financial crisis, and most people believed the worst was still ahead. The currencies of India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia had collapsed. Pakistan and India were on the brink of conflict over the Mumbai terrorist attacks of late 2008. A civil war was still raging in Sri Lanka. Who would turn bullish on stock under those "fundamental" conditions? We did, and only because Elliott wave patterns in the price charts of those four markets told us to "buy."

And by the way,
the terrible conditions in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka mostly reversed along with the market rally over the next year."

"The Wave Principle is how the market works. Financial markets are non-rational and counter-intuitive. Investing according to conventional assumptions eventually leads to financial ruin, since the market too often does the opposite of what most people expect.

Even thinking contrarily is insufficient, because sometimes it’s necessary to run with the herd. But Elliott wave analysis helps you to determine which psychological stance is most appropriate at any given time. Often,
the news at the time would be suggesting you do the opposite". 

These latest analyses remind me of what Reuters' Mark Bendeich  wrote on June 10, 2008:

"A little more than six years ago, immediately after the Sept. 11
attacks on U.S. cities, few sane investment advisers would have
recommended Pakistani stocks. They should have. Their clients could have made a fortune. Since
2001, the nuclear-armed South Asian country, blamed for spawning
generations of Islamic militants and threatening global security, has
been making millionaires like newly minted coins. As Western
governments have fretted about Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into
the hands of militants, the Karachi Stock Exchange's main share index
has risen more than 10-fold."

 Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan on Goldman Sachs' Growth Map

Pakistan's 64 Years of Independence

Goldman Sachs & Franlin-Templeton Bullish on Pakistan

Emerging Market Expert Investing in Pakistan

Pakistan's Demographic Dividend

Genomics & Biotech Advances in Pakistan

The Growth Map by Jim O'Neill

Pakistan Rolls Out 50Mbps Broadband Service

More Pakistan Students Studying Abroad

Inquiry Based Learning in Pakistan

Mobile Internet in South Asia

Online Courses at Top International Universities

Views: 253

Tags: Forecast, Market, Pakistan, Shares

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 4, 2012 at 7:50am

Here's a Reuters' report on KSE's record close on May 4, 2012:

May 4 (Reuters) - Continued buying by foreign investors and expectations of strong corporate performance by heavily-weighted companies boosted local confidence in the Karachi Stock Exchange, analysts said, leading it to close at its highest level since May 2008.

Foreign investors bought shares worth a net $19,569,904 on Friday according to the National Clearing Company of Pakistan.

The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) benchmark 100-share index closed 1.33 percent, or 192.36 points, higher at 14612.28 points, with a volume of 240.9 million shares. The market hit an intra-day high of 14,628.96, and posted its highest close since May 5, 2008 when the index closed at 14,673.13.

"The expectation of good corporate earnings and consistent buying by foreign investors combined to keep the market bullish," said Atif Zafar, a research analyst at the JS Global financial services company.

Among the heavyweights, Pakistan Telecommunication Company closed 6.93 percent higher at 15.42 rupees.

In the currency market, the Pakistani rupee closed almost flat at 90.76/78 to the dollar, compared with Thursday's close of 90.72/77. The rupee has been supported by remittances, which rose 21.45 percent to $9.73 billion in the first nine months of the 2011/12 fiscal year, compared with $8.02 billion in the same period last year.

In March, remittances totaled $1.14 billion.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 7, 2012 at 8:52am

Karachi's KSE-100 is the 3rd fastest growing index so far this year, according to London's Telegraph:

Egyptian stocks suffered last year amid the turmoil that followed the toppling of its president. But 2012 has signalled a recovery in their fortunes, notwithstanding a recent wobble on concerns that a dispute between the interim government and parliament threatened to derail talks on a loan from the International Monetary Fund, yet to be secure
In calmer times, it is economics rather than politics that will drive share price performance, of course. In second place, Vietnam’s benchmark Ho Chi Minh Index seems to have broken its downward trend, up more than 35pc so far.

What was last year one of the worst Asian performers certainly had room for a bounce back. The index plunged in 2011 on worries that tight monetary policy to fight double-digit inflation would hurt economic growth and corporate earnings. Inflation has since been slowing however, and the market has picked up.

Vietnam is seen as a “frontier” market, one of those economies which are smaller than developing or emerging markets and offer a worse environment for business and in terms of corruption.
The third biggest riser so far this year has been Pakistan’s benchmark Karachi 100, which this week reached its highest level in four years.

Figures showed that offshore investors increased their holdings of local stocks. “There are a number of foreign investors increasing positions in Pakistani shares and locals are following,” Ahmed Rauf, a trader at JS Global Capital, told Bloomberg.
1 EGX 30, Egypt UP 36.1pc

2 Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam UP 35.5pc

3 Karachi 100, Pakistan UP 28.8pc

4 Bucharest BET, RomaniaUP 23.8pc

5 OMX Tallinn, EstoniaUP 19.2pc Box light

1 General Market, Cyprus DOWN 24.7pc

2 Ibex 35, Spain DOWN 19.7pc

3 Colombo All-Share, Sri Lanka DOWN 11.5pc

4 Merval, Argentina DOWN 10.5pc

5 FTSE Mib, Italy DOWN 7.8pc

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 7, 2012 at 10:45am

Industry Business Journal is reporting that Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide has announced plans to open two new hotels in Pakistan. According to the Stamford, Conn.-based hotel giant, the Pakistan properties will ride a surge of international expansion throughout 2012, 2013 and into 2014. India is already one of the company’s key markets.

“Sheraton’s impressive global pipeline is being fueled by phenomenal demand in China and India as well as by a surge in high-quality conversions in developed markets,” said Simon Turner, president of global development for Starwood. “In Europe, there is a large landscape of independent hotels ripe for flags, and we’re also keenly focused on an expected uptick in portfolio transaction activity in North America which should lead to even more conversion opportunities.”

Starwood plans to open its new Pakistan properties in 2014.

Leading into its Pakistan efforts, Starwood’s development is lead by a number of main projects, including 12 new hotels in China and the opening of its largest hotel – the Sheraton Macao. Slated to open in 2012, the 4,000-room hotel will have three restaurants with poolside cafes, 140,000 square feet of meeting space and two outdoor swimming pools and will be located on the Cotai Strip, also known as the “Las Vegas of Asia.”

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide has 1,090 properties in 100 countries and territories with 154,000 employees at its owned and managed properties. Starwood is a owner, operator and franchisor of hotels, resorts and residences with the following brands: St. Regis, The Luxury Collection, W, Westin, Le Méridien, Sheraton, Four Points by Sheraton, Aloft and Element.

Starwoods (owner of Sheraton) plans to add hotels in Pakistan and other key emerging markets, reports Emirates 24 7:

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide is strengthening its position as the leading hotel operator in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region with an existing portfolio with a pipeline of 40 new hotels.

This growth, primarily in the luxury and upper-upscale segments, represents an increase of nearly 60 per cent over the next five years.

In the past 18 months, Starwood has debuted six new hotels throughout Mena and momentum continues in the region where the company has recently inked deals for 10 additional hotels.

"Despite economic and political uncertainty in parts of the region, Starwood continues to see demand for growth of all of our brands across the Middle East and North Africa," said Frits van Paasschen, President and CEO, Starwood Hotels & Resorts.
With more than 70 per cent of the world's economic growth coming from fast-growing markets over the next few years, Starwood is focused on expansion in developing markets such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Algeria as well as key emerging markets including Iraq, Tajikistan and Pakistan.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 7, 2012 at 10:51am

Here's an ET report on Avari's hotel expansion in secondary cities in Pakistan:

Avari Group has decided to develop Avari Xpress three- and four-star residences and boutique hotels in secondary cities of Pakistan on a lease basis.

Avari Group Chairman Byram D Avari while talking to journalists on the sidelines of a press briefing on Thursday informed that two such properties already exist in Islamabad. “We’ll have two more Avari Xpress properties in Lahore soon,” he said, adding that the group also planned to have similar properties in Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Multan and Sialkot.

The Avari properties provide all room amenities that are provided by their larger counterparts, including gym, restaurant and meeting facilities. However, they are limited in the food service and without a swimming pool and banquet facilities. Avari noted that Hyderabad did not apparently have enough demand to justify the establishment of a full-fledged Avari hotel there. However, he said he wanted to set up a three-star in Hyderabad. He added that Sukkur seemed more feasible for a four-star Avari hotel..

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 7, 2012 at 5:25pm

Here's Daily Times on rising domestic sales of cement in Pakistan: The cement sales in domestic market posted fifth straight month of increase as compared to last year but the industry is still passing through difficult times as its exports registered third consecutive month of decline.

A spokesman of All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association stated this while discussing performance of the cement industry during first 10 months of the current fiscal.

He said that the total cement despatches up till April 2012 were 26.643 million tonnes, which is 3.31 percent higher than despatches during the corresponding period of last fiscal. The domestic sales during this period increased by 8.51 percent but exports registered a decline of 8.91 percent. He said performance of north and south-based mills depicted different trends both in domestic sales and exports. He said local sales of the north-based mills increased by 7.77 percent to 15.928 million tonnes while the south-based mills registered higher domestic consumption by 11.81 percent to 3.701 million tonnes. In exports, however, the mills in the north suffered comparatively less decline than in the south. The cement producers based in north exported 5.087 million tonnes of cement posting a decline of 6.23 percent over exports made during the same period last year. The exports of south region mills declined by 15.29 percent to 1.928 million tonnes.

Among the export markets, the Afghanistan market remained relatively stable as exports declined nominally by 0.15 percent to 3.778 million tonnes. Exports to India increased by 15.19 percent to slightly over half million tonnes. This includes exports by sea, as well as, through Wagah border. Exports to other destinations through sea however decreased by 16.96 percent to 2.699 million tonnes. Cement industry people said that cement is one the major commodities that is abundantly available in Pakistan and can be exported to India through the land route. Despite tall claims to increase bilateral trade, the respective governments failed to remove non-tariff barriers imposed on Pakistani products. There is currently a labour strike on Indian side resulting in piling up of consignments, which is affecting the movement of trucks from Pakistan.

Besides, merely 10 wheeler trucks from Pakistan are allowed to cross the border and maximum weight may not be more than 40 tonnes per truck. Unfortunately, most of the available transportation for cement has a loading capacity of more than 40 tonnes.

Availability of 10 wheeler trucks with a loading capacity up to 40 tonnes for cement is limited; resulting in the cement industry being unable to export its surplus capacity

There is only one scanner installed at the new gate at Wagah border resulting in long queues creating hurdles and delay for Pakistani exports to India. The Pakistani exporters have demanded of the government to look into the matter and allow trucks with a loading capacity up to 80 tonnes instead of 40 tonnes. They further urged the government that exporters should also be provided all necessary facilities at the border points so that they could easily clear their consignments.\05\08\story_8-5-2012_pg5_2

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 10, 2012 at 7:59pm

Here's a Nation report on UNESCAP's projection on Pakistan's economy: The economy of Pakistan is projected to grow by 4 percent in 2012, according to the United Nations Economic and Social Survey of Asia and Pacific.In its report on Thursday, it said the gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan is projected to grow by 4 percent in 2012 which is an improvement from 2.4 percent growth in 2011.Speaking at the launch of report, economist Dr Ashfaq Hassan, said the economic growth of the country “has increased mainly due to the enhanced output of agriculture sector”. He said the agriculture sector was improving due to the post-flood recovery in cotton, rice, wheat, sugar cane and other minor crops.Dr Ashfaq said cut in monitory policy by 200 basis points by the State Bank of Pakistan also supported the economic growth of the country."Pakistan, after several increases in the policy rate, lowered the policy rate by 50 basis points in July 2011 and further by 150 basis points in October, 2011 despite inflation remains elevated. The moves were aimed at stimulating private investment and economic growth."The GDP growth in the country slowed considerably to 2.4 percent in fiscal year 2011 from 3.8 percent in the previous year, mainly due to prevailing security concerns, the exogenous shock from elevated oil prices and unprecedented floods in a large part of the country and shortage of electricity and natural gas have also hampered the economic growth, he added.The economic survey of Asia reported that to reduce the budget deficit in Pakistan, the government was making efforts to improve tax compliance and broaden the tax base.The report said that current account of balance of payments in the country registered surplus in 2011."In Pakistan, the external sector registered a surplus on the current account, making it a bright spot of the economy in 2011", the report added.According to the report the exports increased by 29.3 percent and workers' remittances reached an historic level of more than $11.2 billion in 2011.Rising prices of value-added textiles helped propel the rapid growth of exports. Foreign exchange reserves also increased considerably.The report further said that in order to address energy shortages, the government should take various measures including setting up viable new power projects, minimizing transmission and distribution losses including theft of electricity, increasing exploration of natural gas, crude oil and coal, tapping of regional markets and setting up infrastructure for energy imports.The report said that widespread poverty continues to be major challenge in South Asia. "To fight against poverty, countries need to continue to implement economic reforms to improve productivity, strengthen public institutions, improve economic governance and build social safety nets to protect the more vulnerable segments of the population", the Economic Survey of Asia added.Clovis Freire, representative said on the occasion that Asia and the Pacific faces another year of slowing growth as demand for its exports falls in developed nations and capital costs rise, but the region will remain the anchor of global economic stability.He said that the growth rate of the region's developing economies is projected to slow down to 6.6 percent in 2012 from 7.0 percent last year compared to a strong 8.9 per cent in 2010.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 23, 2012 at 6:54pm

Here's an ET story on Credit Suisse bullish view of Pakistani stocks:

In a detailed report issued to clients on Monday, analysts at Credit Suisse said that they believed that the new rules on capital gains tax and the exemption from documenting source of income for the next two years will improve liquidity and trading volumes in the market and allow stock prices to rise to their historical levels of valuations from their currently highly depressed levels.

“Liquidity in 2012 has been concentrated in stocks offering positive earnings surprises (e.g., United Bank, Lucky Cement, DG Khan Cement and Bank Alfalah), enabling them to be strong outperformers,” said Farrukh Khan, a research analyst based in Credit Suisse’ Asia Pacific headquarters in Singapore, in his report. “With further improvements in liquidity, we expect a broad-based price discovery to take hold in attractively valued oil and fertiliser stocks as well.”

Besides liquidity, however, Credit Suisse believes there are several other reasons why Pakistan is a highly attractive market.

It notes, for instance, that Pakistan’s sovereign risk is declining. Yields on Pakistan’s Eurobond have fallen 3% over the past 90 days, which Credit Suisse believes is justified. “A few months back, it seemed imminent that the current government’s altercation with the army would lead to early elections. The crisis has been averted, and for the first time in Pakistan’s history, a democratically elected government looks likely to complete its term in office” Khan stated.

In addition, Khan points out that Pakistani stocks are undervalued by their own historical valuation levels. The seven-year average for the 12-month forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio (a key valuation metric) is 9.0, but the MSCI Pakistan index is currently trading at an average forward PE ratio of 6.3, which Khan argues is too low.

“Although Pakistan’s macros and politics remain challenging, there is an increasing realisation that this comes with the territory, and should not deter strong bottom-up investing. A large part of the weak politics and macros is built into historical valuations as well,” said Khan.

Credit Suisse also points out that corporate profitability in Pakistan is back to the 2007 pre-crisis levels. The average return on equity for the stocks in the MSCI Pakistan index is expected to hit 30% this year. Earnings yield averages 16% and dividend yields a healthy 7.3%.

The final advantage for international investors, Credit Suisse says, is that Pakistan is highly uncorrelated with the broader global equity markets, especially Europe. This lack of correlation holds both on the upside as well as the downside, meaning investors who are looking to diversify out of their exposure to the weakening European economy should be investing in Pakistan.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 10, 2012 at 1:20pm

Here's an FT report on Sweden's Pakistan Fund:

With Pakistan so much in the news for the above (negative) reasons it is no surprise that few fund managers have set up single country Pakistan funds.

However, newly established Swedish fund manager, Tundra Fonder, was determined to look beyond the headlines.

Tundra was founded in September last year by partners Johan Elmquist and Mattias Martinsson. By October the group had launched its first funds, one investing in Russia and the other in Pakistan. In February Tundra unveiled a third offering: the Global Emerging Markets Agri & Food Fund.

Launching Tundra Pakistanfond was a particular ambition for Mr Martinsson, the fund’s lead manager, who had formed a personal conviction in the country’s growth story. Even he has been taken by surprise, however, by how well things have gone. By last month, Mr Martinsson says, he and Mr Elmquist had noticed an extraordinary thing – the Tundra Pakistan fund was on top of the most clicked list, “Mest clickade fonder ” on the Swedish version of Morningstar, the fund news and data provider.

Investors have not only been clicking. They have been investing too. “We currently have approximately $65m in assets under management of which a little bit more than $50m right now is in the Pakistan fund,” says Mr Martinsson.

Early investors have already been rewarded. By May 31, year-to-date returns were 27.9 per cent, according to Morningstar.

Mr Martinsson says the strong inflows into Tundra’s Pakistan fund could be due to the structure being something that investors can understand and trust – it is Ucits IV compliant and open for daily trading. A buoyant period for Pakistan’s stock market (the KSE 100 has risen more than 20 per cent since January 1) might also have been helpful. But these factors cannot explain the whole story. The World Investment Oppportunities Funds – Pakistan, a Luxembourg registered Sicav still has only $1.75m in assets under management and it launched in 2008.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 30, 2012 at 7:56pm

Here are latest cement sector profit reports in The Nation of KSE listed firms:

Lucky Cement Limited declared a profit after tax of Rs2,014 million for the quarter ending 30th September 2012. The Earnings per Share (EPS) of the company increased to Rs6.23 per share versus Rs4.66 per share achieved in the same period last year.Gross profit for Lucky Cement, which is Pakistan’s largest cement manufacturer increased by 32.87pc during quarter as its net sales revenue improved by 18.09pc to Rs 8,852 million against Rs. 7,496 million of the same period last year. Higher sales volume in the domestic markets in line with the company’s strategy attributed to the increased profits.The local sales volume during the quarter under review registered a growth of 5pc that rose to 0.86 million tons sold as compared to 0.82 million tons sold during the same period last year. However, the export sales volume declined by 9pc from 0.62 million tons to 0.56 million tons during the first quarter ending 30th September 2012. This was mainly due to intentional focus on the domestic markets, which contributed in increasing the overall profitability of the company. The company also managed to decrease its financing cost by 76pc during the quarter under review as compared to the same period last year.Meanwhile, Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL) has announced an impressive 1QFY13 result, posting a PAT of Rs375m (diluted EPS: Rs2.06) compared to a loss of Rs86m (diluted loss per share: Rs0.47). Main reason for the growth in bottom line was high gross margins of 17.6pc compared to 8.7pc in 1QFY12. Meanwhile, 1) other income of Rs70m (up 19pc YoY) and lower finance cost of Rs302m (down 5pc YoY) further supported the growth in core operations. Note that QoQ EPS is down 6pc sequentially. This is primarily due to lower other income mainly due to exchange gains. On the margins front gross margins are up 480bps. Meanwhile, Nishat Mills Limited (NML) announced its 1QFY13 result. As expected, the company posted a growth of 3pc YoY in its bottom-line to Rs1.1b (EPS: Rs3.02). Higher gross margin in 1QFY13 was the major reason behind this growth. Recall that margins during last year came under pressure as the company had booked expensive inventory of the previous year.

Other than the core operations, lower finance cost and healthy dividend income continued to lend support to cumulative profits of the company. Although, dividend income in 1QFY13 was on the lower side due to lower payout of Pakgen Power, it still provided support to the bottom line.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 14, 2013 at 8:51pm

Here's a Reuters' report on Templeton and Goldman Sachs bullishness on Pakistan:

After 18 years as a banker at firms such as Citigroup and Nomura, Shaheryar Chishty took a different direction in late 2011, starting an investment firm that, among other things, helped guide Chinese and South Korean money into Pakistan.

While Pakistan is probably not the first place the average investor would choose to park cash, Chishty's timing was spot on. The country's stock market surged 49 percent last year to become one of the five best performing markets in the world.

The victory by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan's general election lifted the stock market to an all-time high on Monday, in a sign that investors, which include Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Mark Mobius of Templeton, are betting on the prospect of further market gains through a stable government.

"I'm not under-estimating the challenges, but we have one party with a simple majority," Chishty, the Pakistan-origin chief executive of Asiapak Investments Ltd, told Reuters in an interview in Hong Kong on Monday. "A lot of the market's rise happened despite the previous government."

Risks, especially violence by Islamic militant groups, remain constant, yet Pakistan's market is up another 21 percent this year, behind only Japan and the Philippines as Asia's top gainers, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Pakistan's uncertain security environment and a deteriorating economy have failed to keep emerging market fund guru Mobius and Goldman Sachs Asset Management out of the country.

Mobius invested 4.6 percent of his $18.5 billion Templeton Asian Growth Fund's assets in Pakistani shares as of the end of March, more than his exposure to shares in Hong Kong, Singapore or Taiwan, according to data from Thomson Reuters Lipper.

"Pakistan is not a small country and it is strategically significant. However, with the negative press surrounding the country, it has tended to be ignored by investors," said Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group.

Last year, 15 equity funds from Pakistan were among the world's top 100 performers, the Thomson Reuters Lipper data show....


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