Comment by Riaz Haq on July 24, 2025 at 11:44am

Why is China speeding up work on Pakistan dam after India held Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance?

https://youtu.be/PQeWyYeQOdI

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Could China’s Tibet mega dam help boost its sway with South Asian neighbours? | South China Morning Post

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3319326/could-chi...

China’s latest mega dam on the Tibetan Plateau could help draw neighbouring countries closer into its economic orbit by supplying electricity and boosting growth, analysts have argued.According to some estimates, the dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo will be the world’s biggest, producing up to 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year, three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam.State news agency Xinhua said over the weekend that its output would “primarily deliver electricity for external consumption” but would also meet local demand in Tibet.But the project has drawn concerns about the impact on water supply and ecological risks downstream in India and Bangladesh, where the river is known as the Brahmaputra, although Beijing has said it was not seeking to benefit at the “expense of its neighbours”.
India is also worried about Beijing’s efforts to strengthen its influence in South Asia, and Chinese observers said the project could help increase its sway over countries such as Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Bangladesh, which have long struggled with power shortages.The project “will undoubtedly become a major power hub for surrounding countries and related neighbouring regions”, according to Zhu Feng, dean of the school of international studies at Nanjing University.

“It will have significant strategic value in boosting electricity supply and industrial growth in the surrounding regions,” he said.

It would also play an important role in driving economic cooperation with its neighbours, something Beijing has made a priority in light of its rivalry with the US.

Lin Minwang, deputy director of Fudan University’s Centre for South Asian Studies, said that in the long run, the hydropower project could help draw Southeast and South Asian countries more closely into China’s economic orbit through electricity exports.He said India might also benefit from the power generated from the dam, but border tensions would complicate the issue.
“The key issue is political relations,” said Lin. “Northeast India is a highly sensitive area for New Delhi, and if electricity is to be sent to Bangladesh, it would require a transit route.”India has already been investing heavily in hydropower projects in Nepal and Bhutan to secure its own supplies.“Whether those countries will choose China or India [for future power imports] is another much bigger question,” Lin added.
The dam will be built close to the border with India and flows through Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian-controlled state that China claims as part of southern Tibet. Beijing has previously objected to Indian infrastructure projects in the state.Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Beijing’s Renmin University, said the project was first of all designed to meet China’s own power needs, and “whether demand is sufficient in the present domestic economic downturn and whether it is environmentally less risky are other matters”.China has tried to address concerns about the environmental risk posed by the project and its impact on water supplies downstream, and said it would continue to strengthen cooperation with neighbouring countries.
Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Wednesday that the project “aims to accelerate the development of clean energy” and “comprehensive ecological and environmental protection measures” would be adopted.“It will, as a by-product, aggravate the tensions with India and attract some Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] countries to China’s power diplomacy. So it has double effects both internal and external,” Shi said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on Monday

AI Overview

General Asim Munir, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, has issued strong warnings regarding India's construction of dams on the Indus River, according to various media reports

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According to these reports, key points related to his statements and the context surrounding them include:

• Nuclear threat and Indus Waters Treaty (IWT):Munir reportedly issued a nuclear threat against India and hinted at a willingness to initiate conflict, suggesting Pakistan might "take half the world down" if facing an existential threat. These remarks occurred as India placed the IWT in abeyance after a terror attack.
• Dam construction and destruction threats: Munir is reported to have threatened to destroy any dams India builds on the Indus River and its tributaries, stating that Pakistan would wait for a dam to be built and then "destroy it with 10 missiles".
• Significance of Indus River: Munir emphasized the vital importance of the Indus River for Pakistan, claiming that India's actions affecting the water flow could put 250 million people at risk of starvation. Pakistan views any attempt to stop or divert its water flow as an "act of war".
• Context of his statements: These remarks were reportedly made during a private dinner in Tampa, Florida, during Munir's visit to the United States. The event's speeches were not officially recorded, and attendees were not allowed to have devices or record the proceedings.
• Indian response and actions: India has been accelerating its water projects, including dams on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, following terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir and the subsequent suspension of the IWT. India has also reportedly launched "Operation Sindoor," conducting precision strikes targeting terrorist camps in Pakistan.
• International Concerns: These reported nuclear threats on US soil have raised concerns about regional and global security. There are also worries that India's actions could lead to China adopting similar strategies with shared water resources.

Comment by Riaz Haq on Tuesday

Adeel Afzal
@AdeelAfzal06
Pakistan welcomes the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling affirming its stance on #IndusWatersTreaty. Decision upholds water rights over Western rivers, enforces strict limits on India’s hydropower projects, and confirms awards as final and binding.

https://x.com/AdeelAfzal06/status/1954950655963172950

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Court of Arbitration’s latest award on Indus Waters Treaty vindicates Pakistan’s stance — FO

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2611486/pakistan

Pakistan and India have been arguing over hydroelectric projects on the shared Indus basin and its tributaries for decades
Islamabad says award details criteria for new hydropower projects to be constructed by India on Chenab, Jhelum and Indus
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Monday said the latest award on the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), rendered by Court of Arbitration, is in line with Pakistan’s interpretation of the relevant provisions of the treaty, which India has threatened to put in abeyance.

India announced in April it was putting the 1960 World Bank-mediated treaty, which ensures water for 80 percent of Pakistani farms, in abeyance a day after an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan, an allegation Islamabad denies. Pakistan has previously said the treaty has no provision for one side to unilaterally pull back and that any blocking of river water flowing to Pakistan will be considered “an act of war.”

The IWT grants Pakistan rights to the Indus basin’s western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — for irrigation, drinking, and non-consumptive uses like hydropower, while India controls the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — for unrestricted use but must not significantly alter their flow. India can use the western rivers for limited purposes such as power generation and irrigation, without storing or diverting large volumes, according to the agreement.

In a statement issued on Monday, Pakistan’s foreign office said it welcomed the award rendered by the Court of Arbitration on Aug. 8 on issues of general interpretation of the IWT, explaining the designed criteria for the new run-of-river hydropower projects to be constructed by India on the western rivers of Chenab, Jhelum and Indus. New Delhi has not yet commented on the development.

“In a significant finding, the Court has declared that India shall ‘let flow’ the waters of the western rivers for Pakistan’s unrestricted use. In that connection, the specified exceptions for generation of hydro-electric plants must conform strictly to the requirements laid down in the Treaty, rather than to what India might consider an ‘ideal’ or ‘best practices’ approach,” the foreign office statement read.

“​The Court’s findings on low-level outlets, gated spillways, intakes for the turbines, and free-board are in line with Pakistan’s interpretation of the relevant provisions of the Treaty. The Award also limits India from maximizing the pondage volume.”

The South Asian neighbors have been arguing over hydroelectric projects on the shared Indus river and its tributaries for decades, with Pakistan complaining that India’s planned hydropower dams will cut its flows.

Notably, the Court observed that the awards of a Court of Arbitration are “final and binding on the parties (India and Pakistan),” and have a controlling legal effect on subsequent Courts of Arbitration and neutral experts, according to the Pakistani foreign office.

Recognizing Pakistan’s vulnerability as the downstream riparian, the Court has further observed that the object and purpose of the Indus Waters Treaty, as it relates to the western rivers, is to de-limit the two states’ respective rights and obligations, in conjunction with mutual cooperation and effective dispute resolutions procedures.

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