Pakistan Agriculture: Record Harvests Forecast After Heavy Monsoon Rains

In the first few months of 2022,  Pakistan has exported more rice to China than Vietnam, the historic top supplier, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).  Pakistan's total rice exports are forecast to jump by 450,000 tons to 4.8 million tons, almost 30% higher than the prior year. 

Women Farmers Planting Rice in Pakistan. Source: Reuters

 

Pakistan experienced broad-based economic growth across all key sectors in FY 21-22; manufacturing posted 9.8% growth, services 6.2% and agriculture 4.4%. The 4.4% growth in agriculture is particularly welcome; it helps reduce rural poverty.  The country is expected to have yet another record year for agriculture in 2022-23 after heavy monsoon rains. Rice is an important food crop in Pakistan  but wheat is the principal grain consumed domestically. Unfortunately, the same hot and dry planting conditions that delayed planting of the 2022 rice crop in Punjab and Sindh provinces have adversely affected Pakistan’s wheat production. This has forced the government to import wheat at a time of high prices amid the war in Ukraine, a major wheat exporter. 

A Cotton Field in Pakistan

 

The recent monsoon rains will help to kick-start the sowing of major Kharif (autumn) crops including rice, cotton, sugarcane and corn after about a month's delay.  “There was 40% less water available for the Kharif season (during May-June 2022),” an official of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research said while talking to The Express Tribune on Saturday. Earlier in March this year, Pakistan's Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) had said “for the Kharif year 2022, the water availability in canals head will be 65.84 million acre feet (MAF) against last year’s 65.08 MAF”. Recent rains have helped fill up major water reservoirs across the country.  About 150,000 cubic feet per second of water is being released from Pakistan's largest Tarbela dam which is more than the combined irrigation needs of the two provinces.  It is also generating over 3,000 MW of electricity, according to media reports

Heavy 2022 Monsoon Rainfall. Source: Pakistan Met Office 

“Cotton production is expected to improve to 9.5-10 million bales (one bale weighs 170 kg) in the wake of ongoing rainfall in cotton belts in Punjab and Sindh,” said Pakistan Central Cotton Committee Vice President Dr Muhammad Ali Talpur. “Cotton production will remain high, as farmers have improved crop management in the backdrop of higher prices in the domestic (and international) market.”

Drought Map of Pakistan. Source: Relief Web

Pakistan's agriculture output is the 10th largest in the world. The country produces large and growing quantities of cereals, meat, milk, fruits and vegetables. Currently, Pakistan produces about 38 million tons of cereals (mainly wheat, rice and corn), 17 million tons of fruits and vegetables, 70 million tons of sugarcane, 60 million tons of milk and 4.5 million tons of meat.  Total value of the nation's agricultural output exceeds $50 billion.  Improving agriculture inputs and modernizing value chains can help the farm sector become much more productive to serve both domestic and export markets.  

Pakistan's Thar Desert After Monsoon 2022. Source: Emmanuel Guddu 

Pakistanis are eating more and healthier foods, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22. Per capita average daily calorie intake in Pakistan has jumped to 2,735 calories in FY 2021-22 from 2,457 calories in 2019-20. The biggest contributor to it is the per capita consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables which soared from 53.6 Kg to 68.3 Kg, less than half of the 144 Kg (400 grams/day) recommended by the World Health Organization. Healthy food helps cut disease burdens and reduces demand on the healthcare system. Under former Prime Minister Imran Khan's leadership, Pakistan succeeded in achieving these nutritional improvements in spite of surging global food prices amid the Covid19 pandemic

Investments in modernization of the agriculture production process and farm-to-market value chain will require major reforms to ensure growers get a bigger share of the value. The extraordinary power of the middlemen (arthis) as financiers needs to be regulated. This can not happen without legislation in close consultation with the growers. Improving agriculture inputs and modernizing value chains can help raise the productivity of the farm sector for it to serve both domestic and export markets better.  

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Comment by Riaz Haq on August 9, 2022 at 4:13pm

Drought Bulletin of Pakistan (July 2022)


https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/drought-bulletin-pakistan-jul...

During the month of July 2022, rainfall received across Pakistan is shown in Fig, 1. Above Normal rainfall reported from most of the places in Pakistan, while some stations received exceptionally high above normal rains and caused flooding in those areas. The Chief amounts of monthly rainfall recorded across Pakistan during July 2022 are shown in Table 1

Precipitation during June-July2022 was above normal especially over most of the drought-prone areas of Sindh and Balochistan, due to which drought conditions have been terminated or minimized over there.

Monsoon rainfall is expected to be above normal over the central (Punjab) and southern parts (Sindh) of the country whereas slightly above normal rainfall is expected over remaining parts of the country.

Drought Conditions has been minimized due to above normal rainfall spells over Balochistan and Sindh. The disaster management authorities are requested to plan DRM activities accordingly.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 31, 2022 at 8:55pm

Devastating Floods in Pakistan (NASA Earth Observatory)

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150279/devastating-floods-...

Since mid-June 2022, Pakistan has been drenched by extreme monsoon rains that have led to the country’s worst flooding in a decade. According to Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority, the floods have affected more than 33 million people and destroyed or damaged more than 1 million houses. At least 1,100 people were killed by floodwaters that inundated tens of thousands of square kilometers of the country.

The false-color images above were acquired by the Operational Land Imagers aboard the Landsat 8 and Landsat 9 satellites on August 4 and 28, respectively. The images combine shortwave infrared, near infrared, and red light (bands 6-5-4) to better distinguish flood waters (deep blue) beyond their natural channels.

The worst flooding occurred along the Indus River in the provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Sindh. The provinces of Balochistan and Sindh have so far this year received five to six times their 30-year average rainfall. Most of that arrived in summer monsoon rains.

Across the country, about 150 bridges and 3,500 kilometers (2,200 miles) of roads have been destroyed, according to ReliefWeb. More than 700,000 livestock and 2 million acres of crops and orchards have also been lost.

The image above, acquired by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NOAA-20 satellite on August 31, 2022, shows the extent of flooding in the region. The image uses a combination of near-infrared and visible light to make it easier to see where rivers are out of their banks and spread across floodplains.

The immense volume of rain- and meltwater inundated the dams, reservoirs, canals, and channels of the country’s large and highly developed irrigation system. On August 31, the Indus River System Authority authorized some releases from dams because the water flowing in threatened to exceed the capacity of several reservoirs.

In the southern reaches of the Indus watershed, the deluge has turned plains into seas. These detailed images show the districts of Qambar and Shikarpur in Sindh province, which from July 1 to August 31 received 500 percent more rainfall than average.

The effect of the monsoon rains has been compounded by the continued melting of Pakistan’s 7,000 glaciers. The country holds the most glacial ice found outside the polar regions. Climate warming and recent heat waves have precipitated several glacial-outburst floods. In the rugged northern part of the country, the combined rain and meltwater has turned slopes into hill torrents.

On August 30, the Pakistani government declared a national emergency and, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, called for international aid for humanitarian relief efforts.

Pakistan last faced such dramatic and widespread flooding in 2010.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE, GIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Story by Sara E. Pratt.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 1, 2022 at 4:24pm

Why are Pakistan’s floods so bad this year?
Climate change is making South Asia’s monsoons increasingly erratic

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/08/31/why-are-pakista...

Even before this summer’s rains began, Pakistanis living along the country’s rivers were witness to the immense power of climate change. Meltwater from the Himalayas had swollen them by May, a month before the highest temperatures of the year were expected. Summers are getting hotter across the Indian subcontinent and, in turn, the monsoon rains that break the heat are becoming increasingly unpredictable: early or late, deficient or superabundant. This year’s devastating cloudbursts are a terrible case in point (see chart).

By the end of August Pakistan had received three times its annual average rainfall. The swollen Indus river and its many tributaries have therefore burst their banks, washing away buildings and destroying harvests and the livelihoods of millions in a country where 65% of the population is sustained directly by agriculture. A third of the country is estimated to have been submerged. And the country’s government, distracted by protracted political and economic crises, has proved to be woefully unprepared for this inundation. Over 1,100 people have perished in the floods, including hundreds of children. The government estimates that the disaster has so far caused over $10bn-worth of damage. And worse will follow as the rains keep falling and food shortages and flood-related epidemics set in.

Much of the northern hemisphere has been struggling with drought this summer. America, China and most of Europe are therefore seeing crop failures, dwindling waterways and electricity shortages (in part due to diminished availability of hydro-power and high demand for air-conditioning). Most of South Asia (including Pakistan) is meanwhile receiving unusually heavy rainfall.

In the long-term, South Asia should expect more extreme rainfall as a result of climate change. In a study published in 2021, a German research team estimated that for every degree Celsius of global warming the Indian subcontinent can expect an additional 5.3% of precipitation during the monsoon. This is because, as the atmosphere’s temperature rises, so does its capacity to bear moisture.

This year’s devastation is spread unevenly across Pakistan’s varied geography. Two relatively arid southern provinces, Sindh and Balochistan, received 336% and 446% more rain than they would during a normal July. Downriver from the glacial melt, they were especially unprepared to absorb it. Himalayan regions, such as Pakistan-administered Kashmir, have meanwhile had average or reduced rainfall.

In an appeal for foreign aid this week, Pakistan’s finance minister, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, noted how inequitably the costs of climate change are being experienced around the world. Pakistan emits less than 1% of the greenhouse-gas emissions responsible for global warming, Yet, he said, Pakistanis are “paying the price in their lives”.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 1, 2022 at 5:16pm

How to help #Flood Victims in #Pakistan? Donate generously to Islamic Relief, Edhi Foundation, UNICEF, Alkhidmat, International Rescue Committee, Mercy Corps, Save the Children and other #NGOs working on the ground. #FloodsInPakistan https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/01/pakistan-help-donat...

Extreme flooding has decimated communities in Pakistan and killed more than 1,000 people, many of them children. Millions more have been displaced, their homes destroyed. Crops have been ravaged, heightening concerns of malnutrition.

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As the crisis continues to unfold, officials have called on the international community for aid, estimating it may cost billions of dollars to recover from the damage.

Here are some organizations you can donate to:

Islamic Relief
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Islamic Relief has been operating in Pakistan since 1992. The organization is focused on providing food aid, access to clean water and other humanitarian supplies. Donate here.

UNICEF
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The United Nations Children’s Fund is working to provide health services, water and hygiene kits to affected families. The agency is also setting up temporary education centers. Donate here.

International Medical Corps
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The International Medical Corps has been operating in the country since 1985. The organization is focused on providing medical care and supplies, mental health support, as well as water, sanitation and hygiene services. Donate here.

Alkhidmat Foundation Pakistan
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This nonprofit launched an Emergency Flood Appeal calling for donations. The organization has been providing food and shelter to those affected since July. Donate here.

International Rescue Committee
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The IRC has operated in Pakistan since 1980. The organization has “reached almost 20,000 people with critical food, supplies and medical support,” Shabnam Baloch, IRC’s Pakistan director, said in a statement. “We are urgently requesting donors to step up their support and help us save lives.” Donate here.

Mercy Corps
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Mercy Corps is working in the hard-hit province of Baluchistan, providing food, water and funds to those affected. Donate here.

Save the Children
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Save the Children has been working in Pakistan since 1979. The organization is providing shelter, schooling, food and cookware to affected areas. Donate here.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 13, 2022 at 4:11pm

The New York Times
@nytimes
Flooding has crippled Pakistan’s agricultural sector, battering the country as it reels from an economic crisis and inflation that has sent the price of basic goods soaring. Officials warn the flooding threatens to set Pakistan back years or even decades. https://nyti.ms/3qvsCE4

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1568999070571659269?s=20&t=Y...

------------

While large landowners will likely survive the floods, the damage has been devastating for the tens of thousands of smaller landowners and farmers that make up the backbone of Pakistan’s agriculture sector, Mr. Khaskheli added.

Land ownership remains an extremely feudal system in Pakistan, made up largely of vast estates cultivated by farmers who work as forced labor, primarily in the form of debt bondage.

Officials have warned that the damage and economic losses will be felt throughout the country for months and years to come. The loss of cotton to Pakistan’s textile industry, which contributes nearly 10 percent of the country’s G.D.P., could hamper any hopes for an economic recovery.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 14, 2022 at 9:28am

NASA Earth Observatory on Pakistan Floods:


Flood Woes Continue in Pakistan

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150470/flood-woes-continue...

In early September 2022, floods in Pakistan were the worst in a decade. Monsoon rains had pummeled the region for several weeks and floodwaters inundated 75,000 square kilometers of the country. Six weeks later, rains have ceased, and fields have begun to drain. But vast swaths of farmland remain waterlogged, infectious diseases are spreading, and food shortages loom.

The images above show the progression of the flooding. The second image shows Sindh province on August 31, 2022, near the peak of the flooding. By October 13, 2022 (third image), a considerable amount of water had drained off the landscape and back into rivers. But many areas remained wet and waterlogged in comparison to June 2022 (first image). All three images were acquired by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NOAA-20 satellite. They are false-color images based on VIIRS observations of shortwave infrared and visible light, a combination that makes it easier to distinguish between water (blue) and land (green).

Rains in September 2022 were modest. Rather, the flooding visible in these images was caused by the arrival of torrential monsoon rains that hit southern Pakistan in July and August. (The rains were likely made more intense by climate change, according to the World Weather Attribution Initiative.)

The animation above depicts a satellite-based estimate of rainfall from July 1 to August 31, 2022. The darkest reds reflect the highest amounts of rainfall, with Pakistan’s Sindh and Balochistan provinces seeing the heaviest rains. The data are remotely sensed estimates that come from the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), a product of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite mission. Due to the averaging of the satellite data, local rainfall amounts may be significantly higher when measured from the ground. Sindh and Balochistan received four times more rain than usual for this period, according to data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

With so much standing water in fields for so many weeks, the floods have taken a toll on Pakistan’s farmers. One satellite-based assessment conducted by researchers at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) forecasted that floodwaters would likely reduce Sindh's cotton crop by 88 percent, rice crop by 80 percent, and sugarcane crop by 61 percent.

“Unlike previous floods, the current floods have inundated areas where there is little possibility that water can drain naturally,” explained Faisal Mueen Qamer, a remote sensing specialist with ICIMOD. “Local governments are currently making cuts to roads and other linear infrastructure to make it easier for the water to flow back to rivers or toward empty lands. Some farmers are operating pumps to help drain their lands before planting winter crops.”

Yet with many fields still waterlogged in October, some farmers may have to delay or abandon planting winter crops, such as wheat. The deaths of more than 1.1 million livestock animals during the flooding has further strained the food system in Pakistan. With food prices soaring, World Food Organization and U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization assessments reported that the number of people requiring emergency food assistance will increase from 7.2 million prior to the flood to 14.6 million from December through March 2023.

Flood-hit communities have also seen outbreaks of waterborne diseases, with news outlets reporting outbreaks of dengue, cholera, and malaria.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 14, 2022 at 9:38am

USDA Revised Forecast For Pakistan Grain & Feed Production:


https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/pakistan-grain-and-feed-update-20

Report Highlights:
Due to the impact of the recent flooding, the 2022/23 rice production forecast is lowered to 8.3 million tons. With a slow-down in exports during July and August, plus the recent flooding causing a pause in export activities, marketing year 2021/22 rice exports are lowered to 4.5 million tons. Similarly, due to
expected lower exportable supplies, 2022/23 rice exports are now projected at 4.2 million tons

Wheat
Wheat production, supply, and distribution forecasts are unchanged. Given the pace of imports and the
domestic stock situation, the 2022/23 wheat import forecast remains 2.5 million tons.
Stagnant Flood Waters in Sindh Province Likely to Hinder 2023/24 Wheat Planting
The recent floods are likely to negatively impact 2023/24 wheat planted area. Farmers normally begin
planting the wheat crop in mid-October and November in Sindh and Punjab, respectively. Sindh
province usually accounts for almost twenty percent of national wheat production. However, large areas
of Sindh typically planted to wheat are still submerged, and it may be several months before the flood
waters recede. With Sindh’s flat terrain, poor drainage, and current high-water table, flood waters are
receding slowly. As a result, seeding the 2023/24 wheat crop in Sindh is likely to be delayed and some
areas may possibly remain unseeded. Even where the waters recede, farmers are likely to face
difficulties in wheat planting as the floods washed away on-farm wheat seed stock in many areas.
Additionally, farmers’ purchasing power in the affected areas is severely compromised making it
difficult for them to buy fertilizers and other inputs.

Due to the impact of the recent floods, the 2022/23 rice production forecast is revised down to 8.3
million tons, which would be nine percent less than the last year’s record production of 9.1 million. This
forecast hinges on inundated areas in Sindh province draining prior to harvest. The 2021/2022 rice
production estimate is updated to 9.1 million tons based on latest official government data.
The recent flooding has most adversely effected rice production areas in Sindh province. Within Sindh,
rice production areas in Larkana, Dadu, Shikarpur, Qambar Shadadkot, Thatta and Badin are still
submerged in flood waters. Sindh accounts for about thirty percent of Pakistan’s total rice area.
In Punjab, floods were severe in South Punjab, where rice area is minimal. Central Punjab, where most
of the Basmati rice is produced, was not affected by the floods. In fact, the rice production in this
Basmati producing zone will benefit from the above average rainfall during the monsoon period.

Record Exports Projected Despite Floods Disrupting Supply Chains
Given the export pace and flood’s impact, marketing year (Nov/Oct) 2021/22 rice exports are reduced
from 4.9 to 4.5 million tons, which would still be a record export level. With lower available domestic
supplies, the 2022/23 rice export forecast is lowered to 4.2 million tons.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 3, 2022 at 4:27pm

GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan 04-October-2022

https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/giews-country-brief-pakistan-...

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

Severe flooding caused widespread devastation to agricultural sector

Wheat imports in 2022/23 marketing year forecast well above five-year average

Prices of most basic food products at record or near-record levels in August

Acute food insecurity expected to worsen due to negative impact of floods and high prices of basic food items, energy and fuel

Severe flooding caused substantial damage to 2022 “Kharif” cereal and cash crops

Heavy monsoon rains caused severe floods between mid-June and end-August 2022 with widespread devastation to the agricultural sector, especially in the southern parts of the country.

Preliminary official estimates, as of 27 September 2022, indicate that about 2.6 million hectares of standing “Kharif” crops have been adversely affected, mainly in the province of Sindh (1.9 million hectares), Balochistan (365 000 hectares), Punjab (285 000 hectares) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (60 700 hectares). The area affected by floods represents about 35 percent of the total area planted to cereals, sugarcane and cotton during the 2022 “Kharif” season. Severe losses are reported for cotton and rice crops as well as vegetables and orchards. The production forecasts of 13.2 million tonnes for rice and 9.4 million tonnes for maize, sorghum and millet will need to be downward revised to take into consideration the extensive losses due to floods. Standing flood waters are expected to hamper harvesting operations of the “Kharif” crops, which are set to start in October, and to increase harvest and post-harvest losses.

Floods did not affect the 2021/22 main “Rabi” wheat crop, which accounts for about 55 percent of the total annual cereal output, as its harvest was already concluded by mid-June. Despite record plantings, the 2022 wheat output is officially estimated at a near-average level of 26.1 million tonnes as yields were affected by heatwaves between March and April, and shortages of urea fertilizers and irrigation water supplies.

Planting of the “Rabi” wheat crop, almost entirely irrigated, normally takes place between October and December. As many areas are still flooded, planting operations for the 2022/23 wheat crop are expected to be severely hampered. In addition, floods resulted in the loss or damage of agricultural inputs, including seed stocks, fertilizers, machinery at household level and irrigation infrastructure, which may result in a contraction in the area planted and have a negative impact on crop development.

Regarding the livestock sector, preliminary official estimates show that 1.1 million animals, including cattle, goats, donkeys and sheep, died due to drowning or starvation as grazing land was covered by water and feed stocks were lost. Most of the animal deaths are reported in Balochistan Province (estimated around 500 000) followed by Sindh (393 000), Punjab (205 000) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (21 000). Widespread damage to livestock shelters has also been reported.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 3, 2022 at 4:27pm

GIEWS Country Brief: Pakistan 04-October-2022

https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/giews-country-brief-pakistan-...


Wheat imports in 2022/23 forecast well above five-year average

In the 2022/23 marketing year (April/March), wheat import requirements are estimated at 2.3 million tonnes, close to previous year’s well above-average level. The high level of imports reflects the government’s announcement, in July 2022, to import large quantities of wheat aiming to boost availabilities, amid elevated domestic prices.

Prices of most basic food products at record or near-record levels in August

Prices of wheat flour, the country’s main food staple, have been generally increasing since the end of 2021, low levels of domestic stocks, following below-average outputs in 2018 and 2020, and high export flows (wheat grain and wheat flour). High agricultural input costs and inflationary pressure also supported prices. In August 2022, prices of wheat flour were at record or near-record levels, averaging about 30 percent higher year on year. Similarly, domestic prices of rice were at record levels in August 2022 after increasing since late 2021, amid general inflationary pressure and strong demand for exports. Prices of vegetables and livestock products registered substantial increases, particularly in the markets near the flood-affected areas. The depreciation of the national currency caused a strong rise in domestic prices of imported items, such as petroleum and energy products. Given the extensive damage by floods to road infrastructure, physical access to food in some areas is very difficult.

Overall, the year-on-year inflation rate increased to 27.3 percent in August 2022, compared to 8.4 percent in August 2021. The year-on-year food price inflation stood at 30.2 percent in rural areas and at 28.8 percent in urban areas.

Acute food insecurity expected to worsen due to negative impact of floods and high prices of basic food items, energy and fuel

According to latest official estimates, floods affected about 33 million people (nearly 15 percent of the total population) in 116 out of the country’s 160 districts, particularly in southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan. On 24 August 2022, the government announced a state of emergency and 81 districts were declared as calamity hit. Floods caused severe damage to housing and infrastructure, including roads, bridges and shops. According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, carried out in 28 districts in Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces prior to the floods in the first week of July, about 5.96 million people are projected to be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above), between July and November 2022. Acute food insecurity levels are expected to increase considerably in 2022 as livelihoods of a large number of people have been disrupted and vulnerable households have often depleted their productive assets in order to secure their basic needs. In addition, prices of basic food items, energy and fuel, are at high levels worsening access to these items for large numbers of people.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 13, 2022 at 7:03pm

Pakistan: 2022 Monsoon Floods - Situation Report No. 11 (As of 11 November 2022)


https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-2022-monsoon-floods-...


Highlights

As people continue to return to their places of origin and with the winter season approaching, the vulnerabilities of the flood-affected people are further heightened with an immediate need for adequate shelter, food items and tents.

More than 5.1 million women are of reproductive age, including an estimated 410,846 pregnant women. Approximately 136,950 births are expected in the next three months.

A comparison of pre-flood (June) and post-flood (September) prices of some food commodities indicates a huge increase in prices.

As of 11 November, humanitarian partners have reached 7.9 million people with life-saving assistance in flood-affected areas.

Vector-borne and water-borne diseases remain a major concern in flood-affected areas. Around 1,000 confirmed cholera cases and 64,767 dengue fever cases, with 147 deaths, have been reported.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

Over the past few weeks, flooded waters have continued to recede in many flood-affected areas across Pakistan, although vast volumes of persistent flood waters remain stagnant in many places, particularly Sindh and Balochistan provinces. Based on observations by the United Nations (UN) Satellite Centre between 03 October and 09 October 2022 and compared with observations between 11 and 17 October 2022, the overall flood water continues to decrease with approximately 200 km2 in Balochistan, 100km2 in Punjab and 4000 km2 in Sindh. According to the latest data, large parts of Kashmore, Jacobabad, Mirpurkhas and Sanghar in Sindh observed significant water reduction. In most affected districts of Sindh, local governments are de-watering land to allow people to resume their livelihoods.

In the flood-impacted areas, many households rely on agriculture and livestock production for their livelihoods, and damage to these sectors will have a major impact on food security and the agriculture sector in the coming months. According to information from the field, farmers reported debt of around PKR 100,000-150,000 on average due to damages to their crops. Most of the Kharif season crop damage occurred in Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, and most of the livestock losses occurred in Balochistan, Sindh, and Punjab.

The uncertain economic situation in the country, exacerbated by the heavy monsoon floods, is creating significant challenges to local ecosystems and food supply chains. According to World Food Program (WFP), a comparison of pre-flood (June) and post-flood (September) prices of some food commodities indicated a huge increase in prices - wheat flour 32%, pulse moong 57%, tomatoes 138%, potatoes 45%, and onions 44%. In September alone, prices increased for staple cereals, including wheat flour (+17.2%), wheat (+10.2%), rice Irri-6 (+7.9%), and rice Basmati (+2.3%) compared to August 2022. As for non-cereal food commodities, the trend remains - a significant increase was noted in the average retail prices of pulse Moong (18.6%), live chicken (14.1%), eggs (13.8%), pulses Gram (6.7%) and Mash (6.5%).

Cases of water and vector-borne diseases and acute respiratory illnesses, especially among children and older adults, remain a key public health challenge in flood-affected areas of Sindh and Balochistan. As of 8 November, according to World Health Organization (WHO), around 8 million flood-affected people need health assistance, including the provision of essential medical supplies and access to essential health care. As the displaced people return to their places of origin, they face an increased risk of disease transmission driven by damaged infrastructure, stagnant water, and inadequate sanitation facilities.

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