Comment by Riaz Haq on October 4, 2022 at 6:22pm

Installed capacity for power generation in Pakistan: Tweet by Bilal I Gilani on Twitter (Graph shows installed power generation capacity from almost zero in 1947 to over 40,000 MW in 2021)

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Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
انکے لیے کو کہتے ہیں پاکستان میں کوئی ترقی نہیں ہوئی

بجلی کی پیداوار 1947 سے اب تک
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https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1577191450349277184?s=20&...

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 14, 2022 at 1:59pm

In the 2022 Global Hunger Index, Pakistan ranks 99th out of the 121 countries with sufficient data to calculate 2022 GHI scores. With a score of 26.1, Pakistan has a level of hunger that is serious.

https://www.globalhungerindex.org/pakistan.html

In the 2022 Global Hunger Index, India ranks 107th out of the 121 countries with sufficient data to calculate 2022 GHI scores. With a score of 29.1, India has a level of hunger that is serious.

https://www.globalhungerindex.org/india.html

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India also ranks below Sri Lanka (64), Nepal (81), Bangladesh (84), and Pakistan (99). Afghanistan (109) is the only country in South Asia that performs worse than India on the index.


https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-ranks-107-out-of-121-c...


India ranks 107th among 121 countries on the Global Hunger Index, in which it fares worse than all countries in South Asia barring war-torn Afghanistan.

The Global Hunger Index (GHI) is a tool for comprehensively measuring and tracking hunger at global, regional, and national levels. GHI scores are based on the values of four component indicators — undernourishment, child stunting, child wasting and child mortality. Countries are divided into five categories of hunger on the basis of their score, which are ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘serious’, ‘alarming’ and ‘extremely alarming’.



Based on the values of the four indicators, a GHI score is calculated on a 100-point scale reflecting the severity of hunger, where zero is the best score (no hunger) and 100 is the worst.

India’s score of 29.1 places it in the ‘serious’ category. India also ranks below Sri Lanka (64), Nepal (81), Bangladesh (84), and Pakistan (99). Afghanistan (109) is the only country in South Asia that performs worse than India on the index.



Seventeen countries, including China, are collectively ranked between 1 and 17 for having a score of less than five.

India’s child wasting rate (low weight for height), at 19.3%, is worse than the levels recorded in 2014 (15.1%) and even 2000 (17.15), and is the highest for any country in the world and drives up the region’s average owing to India’s large population.

Prevalence of undernourishment, which is a measure of the proportion of the population facing chronic deficiency of dietary energy intake, has also risen in the country from 14.6% in 2018-2020 to 16.3% in 2019-2021. This translates into 224.3 million people in India considered undernourished.

But India has shown improvement in child stunting, which has declined from 38.7% to 35.5% between 2014 and 2022, as well as child mortality which has also dropped from 4.6% to 3.3% in the same comparative period. On the whole, India has shown a slight worsening with its GHI score increasing from 28.2 in 2014 to 29.1 in 2022. Though the GHI is an annual report, the rankings are not comparable across different years. The GHI score for 2022 can only be compared with scores for 2000, 2007 and 2014..



Globally, progress against hunger has largely stagnated in recent years. The 2022 GHI score for the world is considered “moderate”, but at 18.2 in 2022 is only a slight improvement from 19.1 in 2014. This is due to overlapping crises such as conflict, climate change, the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Ukraine war, which has increased global food, fuel and fertiliser prices and is expected to "worsen hunger in 2023 and beyond."



The prevalence of undernourishment, one of the four indicators, shows that the share of people who lack regular access to sufficient calories is increasing and that 828 million people were undernourished globally in 2021.

There are 44 countries that currently have “serious” or “alarming” hunger levels and “without a major shift, neither the world as a whole nor approximately 46 countries are projected to achieve even low hunger as measured by the GHI by 2030,” notes the report.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 17, 2022 at 8:14am

The title of the UNDP paper on Multi-dimensional poverty 2022 (MPI) is "Unpacking Deprivation Bundle". Below is an excerpt from it:

"The analysis first looks at the most common deprivation profiles across 111 developing countries (figure 1). The most common profile, affecting 3.9 percent of poor people, includes deprivations in exactly four indicators: nutrition, cooking fuel, sanitation and housing.7 More than 45.5 million poor people are deprived in only these four indicators.8 Of those people, 34.4 million live in India, 2.1 million in Bangladesh and 1.9 million in Pakistan—making this a predominantly South Asian profile "

https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/hdp-document/2022mpirep...

Also note in this UNDP report that the income poverty (people living on $1.90 or less per day) in Pakistan is 3.6% while it is 22.5% in India and 14.3% in Bangladesh.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 16, 2022 at 8:06am

Pakistan Demographic Survey 2020


https://www.dawn.com/news/1721179


The latest figures showed that although the overall life expectancy has dropped, it rose among men from 64.3 to 64.5. For women, it fell from 66.5 to 65.5 but was still higher than for men.

Life expectancy also increased for the 1-4 age group to 71.3, including 70.6 for males and 72 for females.

The infant mortality rate has fallen to 56 deaths per 1,000 live births. It was 60 in PSLM 2018-19, and 62 in PDHS 2017-18.

While the general fertility rate was 124, the age-specific data shows the rate was highest in the 25-29 age group at 215, followed by 176 in the 20-24 age group, 164 in the 30-34 age group, and 94 in the 35-39 age group.

This last age group (35-39) also saw the most significant jump when compared with the PDHS figure of 79.

The general fertility rate was also quite higher in rural areas (138) compared to urban areas (102).

The PDS shows that the country’s population has reached from 207.6m in 2017 to 220.42m now, including 111.69m men and 108.73m women. Most people continue to live in rural areas (139.41m) compared to urban areas (81m).

https://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/population/publications/...

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 16, 2022 at 8:26am

Pakistan Demographic Survey 2020


https://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/population/publications/...

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the summary measures of current fertility level. It indicates the number of
children to be born to a woman during her reproductive span of life, if she were to pass through all her
childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. The advantage of this
measure is that it is less influenced by the age structure of the population. TFR is the most useful
indicator of fertility because it gives the best pictures of how many children women are currently
having. The TFR depicted by the PDS 2020, PDHS 2017-18 and PSLM- 2018-19 is given in Table No.
3.2. TFR in urban areas is lower than that in rural areas in all surveys.

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Life Expectancy
The Life Expectancy at birth is a summary measure Index that is obtained from a life table. It shows the
average number of years that persons can expect to live from the time of birth if they experience
currently prevailing age specific death rates throughout their life. The expectation of life at birth is
independent of the age structure of a population and therefore provides a more reliable index for
international comparisons of the level of mortality and social and economic condition of a country. The
Life Table of PDS-2020 for the year 2020 depicts that the expectancy of life at birth in Pakistan is 65
years; it is 64.5 for males and 65.5 for females. The life expectancy increases for age 1-4 both for males
and females i.e., 70.6 and 72 respectively and 71.3 overall.

------------------

Infant Mortality Rate has been declining in
Pakistan but it is still high. Infant Mortality Rates are much higher in rural areas 59 than in urban areas
50, where better Neo-Natal and Post-Natal facilities are available. Male Infant Mortality Rate is 58
which is higher than female Infant Mortality Rate 55 in all areas.
Table 3.8: Infant Mortality Rate PDHS 2017-18, PSLM-2018-19 and PDS-2020
Table 3.9: Infant Mortality Rate by Urban-Rural Residence and Sex PDS-2020
Neo-Natal and Post-Neo-Natal Mortality Rates
Mortality during the first year of life is divided into two main period’s i.e. Neo-natal Mortality
occurring within the first month and, Post-Neonatal Mortality occurring during the remaining 11
months. This distinction is useful as the causes as well as the levels of mortality are quite different in
these two periods. Table 3.10 shows that mortality within the first month after birth is very high in
2020. Like Crude Death Rates and Infant Mortality Rates, the PDS-2020 data indicates that the NeoNatal Mortality in rural areas is higher than in the urban areas.
Table 3.10: Neo-Natal and Post Neo-Natal Mortality Rates PDHS 2018-19 and PDS-2020
Area PDHS-2017-18 PSLM-2018-19 PDS-2020(2018-20)
Pakistan 62 60 56

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 18, 2022 at 6:54am

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Power Generation Data

Power Generation
Oct’22: 10,705 GWh (14,388 MW), -5% YoY | -17% MoM
4MFY23: 51,786 GWh (17,543 MW), -9% YoY

Fuel Cost
Oct’22: PKR 9.02/KWh, -3% YoY | -9% MoM
4MFY23: PKR 9.99/KWh, +41% YoY

https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1593521259626737665?s=20&am...

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 7, 2022 at 8:18am

Here’s Goldman Sachs' Take on World Economy Through 2075

Goldman Sachs analysts said slower population growth will present “a number of economic challenges,” such as how nations will pay for rising health costs of their aging populations.

https://www.law.com/dailybusinessreview/2022/12/06/heres-goldman-sa...


Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists have taken a stab at predicting the path of the world economy through 2075.

Two decades since they famously outlined long-term growth projections for the so-called BRIC economies, the economists, now led by Jan Hatzius, expanded their projections to encompass 104 countries over the next half-century.

The results:

Global growth will average just under 3% a year over the next decade, down from 3.6% in the decade before the financial crisis, and will be on a gradually declining path afterwards, reflecting a slowing of labor force growth.
Emerging markets will continue to converge with industrial nations as China, the U.S., India, Indonesia and Germany top the league table of largest economies when measured in dollars. Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could also be among the biggest.
The U.S. is unlikely to repeat its relative strong performance of the last decade, and the dollar’s exceptional robustness will also unwind over the next 10 years.
While income inequality between countries has fallen, it will continue to rise within them.
Economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas saw protectionism and climate change as risks that are “particularly important” both for growth and the convergence of incomes.

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Pakistan projected to be among largest economies in the world by 2075: Goldman Sachs


https://www.dawn.com/news/1725141

A research paper published by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday projected Pakistan to be the sixth largest economy in the world by 2075 given “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place.

Authored by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas and titled ‘The Path to 2075’, the paper projected that the five largest economies by 2075 will be China, India, the US, Indonesia and Nigeria.

Goldman Sachs has been projecting long-term growth of countries for almost two decades now, initially starting out with BRICs economies, but for the past 10 years they have expanded those projections to cover 70 emerging and developed economies.

Their latest paper covers 104 countries with projections going as far as 2075.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 7, 2022 at 8:19am

Pakistan projected to be among largest economies in the world by 2075: Goldman Sachs


https://www.dawn.com/news/1725141

Pakistan’s star future status is predicted on the back of its population growth, which along with Egypt and Nigeria, could place it among the largest economies in the world in the next 50 years, according to Goldman Sachs.

By that time, the research projects Pakistan’s Real GDP to have grown to $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita to $27,100.

These numbers, however, are projected to be less than a third of the size of China, India and the US. India’s Real GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300.

Among key risks to their projections, the economists particularly highlight “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism”.

Unless a path to sustainable growth is ensured through a globally coordinated response, climate change could heavily skew these projections, particularly for countries like Pakistan, with geographies that are especially vulnerable.

With populist nationalists coming to power in many countries, the report says it might lead to increased protectionism that could potentially result in the reversal of globalisation, thereby increasing income inequality across countries.

Other key projections
Global growth on a declining path
The paper notes that global growth has slowed from an average of 3.6 per cent per year in the past 10 years to 3.2pc, and the slowdown has been relatively broad-based.

They project global growth will average 2.8pc between 2024 and 2029 and will be on a gradually declining path.

The rise of emerging markets
While global growth is dipping, emerging economies are growing faster than developed markets and will continue to converge with them.

“The weight of global GDP will shift (even) more towards Asia over the next 30 years nations as China, the US, India, Indonesia and Germany top the league table of largest economies when measured in dollars. Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could also be among the biggest.”

Declining global population
The decline in global growth will be driven by the decline in population growth, which UN projections imply will fall to close to zero by 2075. The paper says this is a “good problem to have” as it mitigates damages to the environment but could pose economic problems arising from high healthcare costs and an ageing population.

US won’t repeat exceptional growth
The US won’t be able to repeat its strong performance from the last decade, with potential growth remaining “significantly lower” than that of large developing economies.

The US dollar is also projected to lose strength in the next 10 years.

Less global inequality, more local inequality
Emerging markets’ convergence has led to falling income inequality between economies but income inequality within most economies has risen. This poses a major challenge to the future of globalisation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 8, 2022 at 8:09am

In last 65 years (1952-2018), #Pakistan's #GDP growth rate has averaged 4.92%, reaching an all time high of 10.22% in 1954 & a record low of -1.80% in 1952. If Pakistan continues to average 4.92% over the next 53 years until 2075, it will be $4.9 trillion GDP in today's dollars

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1600882957543043072?s=20&...

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 8, 2022 at 8:20am

In last 65 years (1952-2018), #Pakistan's #GDP growth rate has averaged 4.92%, reaching an all time high of 10.22% in 1954 & a record low of -1.80% in 1952. If Pakistan continues to average 4.92% over the next 53 years until 2075, it will be $4.9 trillion GDP in today's dollars


https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1600882957543043072?s=20&...


$1 in 2021 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $5.27 in 2075, an increase of $4.27 over 54 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 3.13% per year between 2021 and 2075, producing a cumulative price increase of 426.85%. The buying power of $1 in 2021 is predicted to be equivalent to $5.27 in 2075.


https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2021?endYear=2075&am...

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Multiplying $4.9 trillion in today's dollars by 5.27 gives us $25.8 trillion in 2075 dollars.

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