Pakistan Forecast to Become World's 7th Largest Consumer Market By 2030

The World Economic Forum forecasts that Pakistan will rise to become the world's 7th largest consumer market by 2030. Nearly 60 million Pakistanis will join the consumer class (consumers spending more than $11 per day) to raise the country's consumer market rank from 15 to 7 in the next 10 years. WEF forecasts the world's top 10 consumer markets of 2030 to be as follows: China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, Japan, Egypt and Mexico.  Global investors chasing bigger returns will almost certainly shift more of their attention and money to the biggest movers among the top 10 consumer markets, including Pakistan.  Already, the year 2021 has been a banner year for investments in Pakistani technology startups

Consumer Markets in 2030. Source: WEF

Here's Brookings Institution overview of the top 5 movers in the next 10 years:

1. Bangladesh (+17 positions), from place 28 to 11; future consumer class: 85 million (+50 million) Global share of consumer class: 0.8 percent (2020), 1.6 percent (2030). Bangladesh’s consumer class is projected to more than double by 2030: Today, 35 million people in Bangladesh spend more than $11 a day. By 2030, it will be 85 million! 

2. Pakistan (+8 positions), from place 15 to 7; future consumer class: 121 million (+56 million) Global share of consumer class: 6 percent (2020), 2.3 percent (2030). Pakistan will add 56 million new consumers by 2030, for a total of 121 million. This means that in 2030, for the first time, every other Pakistani will be able to spend more than $11 per day. 

3. Vietnam (+7 positions), from place 26 to 19; future consumer class: 56 million (+21 million) Global share of consumer class: 9 percent (2020), 1.1 percent (2030). Vietnam’s consumer class will grow from 35 million to 56 million within this decade, which is a success story particularly of the middle-aged generation: Consumers between 45 and 65 years of age will contribute nearly 25 percent of Vietnam’s spending, as opposed to 20 percent today. 

4. Philippines (+6 positions), from place 20 to 14; future consumer class: 79 million (+38 million) Global share of consumer class: 1 percent (2020), 1.5 percent (2030). The Filipino consumer class is projected to grow steadily, from 41 million today to 79 million in 2030. By then, more than two-thirds of the Filipino population will spend more than $11 per day. 

5. Indonesia (+2 positions), from place 6 to 4; future consumer class: 199 million (+76 million) Global share of consumer class: 2 percent (2020), 3.8 percent (2030). While Indonesia is only moving up two places, it is experiencing a large gain of consumer class growth. Starting from an already large base of 123 million, Indonesia will have almost 200 million consumers in 2030, making it the fourth-largest consumer market in the world.

Countries in Asia are expected to show the biggest growth of the consumer class among the world's 30 biggest consumer markets. The consumer class is defined as a group of people who spend more than $11 per day. Currently, 55% of the global consumer class live in Asia. 

World's Top 30 Consumer Markets. Source: World Data Lab's Market Pro 

Global investors chasing bigger returns will almost certainly shift more of their attention and money to the top 10 consumer markets, including Pakistan.  Already, the year 2021 has been a banner year for investments in Pakistani technology startups

Pakistan Population in 2030: 274 Million. Source: Our World in Data

Vehicles and home appliance ownership data analyzed by Dr. Jawaid Abdul Ghani of Karachi School of Business Leadership suggests that the officially reported GDP significantly understates Pakistan's actual GDP.  Indeed, many economists believe that Pakistan’s economy is at least double the size that is officially reported in the government's Economic Surveys. The GDP has not been rebased in more than a decade. It was last rebased in 2005-6 while India’s was rebased in 2011 and Bangladesh’s in 2013. Just rebasing the Pakistani economy will result in at least 50% increase in official GDP.  A research paper by economists Ali Kemal and Ahmad Waqar Qasim of PIDE (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) estimated in 2012 that the Pakistani economy’s size then was around $400 billion. All they did was look at the consumption data to reach their conclusion. They used the data reported in regular PSLM (Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurements) surveys on actual living standards. They found that a huge chunk of the country's economy is undocumented. 

Pakistan's service sector which contributes more than 50% of the country's GDP is mostly cash-based and least documented. There is a lot of currency in circulation. According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the currency in circulation has increased to Rs. 7.4 trillion by the end of the financial year 2020-21, up from Rs 6.7 trillion in the last financial year,  a double-digit growth of 10.4% year-on-year.   Currency in circulation (CIC), as percent of M2 money supply and currency-to-deposit ratio, has been increasing over the last few years.  The CIC/M2 ratio is now close to 30%. The average CIC/M2 ratio in FY18-21 was measured at 28%, up from 22% in FY10-15. This 1.2 trillion rupee increase could have generated undocumented GDP of Rs 3.1 trillion at the historic velocity of 2.6, according to a report in The Business Recorder. In comparison to Bangladesh (CIC/M2 at 13%), Pakistan’s cash economy is double the size. Even a casual observer can see that the living standards in Pakistan are higher than those in Bangladesh and India. 

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Comment by Riaz Haq on December 14, 2021 at 9:46pm

#Karachi-based #Pakistani #grocery #startup Krave Mart, which promises 10-minute delivery, raised $6 million in its pre-seed funding round, which was led by MSA Capital, ru-Net, Global Founders Capital and Zayn Capital. #technology #VentureCapital

A funding frenzy in Pakistan’s startup scene this year has seen investments cross $300 million after two e-commerce companies raised fresh funds.

Bookme, the largest online travel and ticketing platform in the country, raised $7.5 million in its Series A round, according to its founder Faizan Aslam. Bagallery, a beauty and fashion startup, separately raised $4.5 million in a similar round, co-founder Salman Sattar said. Both rounds were co-led by Zayn Capital, Lakson Venture Capital and Hayaat Global.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 11, 2022 at 10:45am

Motta’s, which started operations in 1986 as a single-floor store selling basic grocery items, now has three floors and has acquired two stores in DHA called The Mart by Motta’s. Diamond Superstore, which started in 1958 as a kiryana selling aata, has seven branches in Karachi, including one with a food court and a children’s play area; Naheed Supermarket (known for introducing pre-packaged masalas and pulses to the market) began as a 1,000-feet square outlet and Lahore’s Al-Fatah began operations in the 1940s (under the name Al-Hamra) and now has 23 branches. All the above believe they have barely scratched the surface of Pakistan’s modern retail sector.

A number of local modern trade stores, along with mid-sized and smaller general stores, have opened and/or expanded, especially following the launch of international modern trade (IMT) stores, such as Carrefour, Makro and Metro in the 2000s. According to Muhammad Ibrahim, Owner, Motta’s, once IMTs entered Pakistan, people realised that the grocery store business was not limited to a traditional general store experience; consumers could be offered more convenience and variety and the business was profitable and "cash-rich." Mohammad Sheikh, Director, Al-Fatah, adds that market expansion in the last couple of years has been “aggressive” especially during the pandemic. “If you are uncertain about how long the pandemic will last, the best business to invest in is groceries,” he says.

In 2020, Pakistan’s food and grocery retail market had total revenues worth $52.6 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1% between 2016 and 2020, according to a report, Food and Grocery Retail in Pakistan. Although the market value of the modern retail sector cannot be adequately estimated due to the industry being largely undocumented, store owners agree that it has been expanding pre- and post-Covid-19.

“In the beginning, consumer needs were limited – people would shop at kiryanas or neighbourhood general stores – but now their expectations are changing. For example, as people become more aware of global cuisines, they want to prepare non-desi food, such as pastas and burgers at home and there is a rise in demand for those ingredients,” explains Sheikh. As a result, established stores like Al-Fatah, Diamond Superstore, Motta’s, Naheed Supermarket and many others have kept evolving by revamping their stores, opening more branches and investing in product variety to stay above the competition and meet consumer demand. Although 225 million Pakistanis have access to more than two million retail outlets, of which approximately 800,000 are grocery retail stores (kiryanas, kiosks, department stores, supermarkets and medical-cum-general stores), the ratio of grocery stores to the population is still not enough.

“Compared to our population, the number of operational stores is nothing – one to two percent maybe. We are at the infancy stage, so even if 1,000 stores like Naheed Supermarket open in Pakistan, there will still be room for growth”, says Munsub Abrar, Director, Naheed Supermarket.

Although investing in the grocery retail business remains an attractive proposition, what are the intricacies involved in opening and maintaining an LMT store and how sustainable is the business for new players?

1 Investment
It can cost between Rs 20 to 30 million (small, basic stores) to Rs 80 to 100 million (large-scale stores) to open a grocery store, depending on the size, type of furnishings used (fixtures, equipment, etc.) fixed costs (rent, salaries, etc.) and product inventory.


Store owners agree that staying relevant is key and they must keep evolving, whether by expanding, investing in aesthetic changes to cater to the changing customer shopping experience or offering incentives, such as loyalty cards and working with brands on special discounts. Sheikh emphasises that their most loyal customers are the older generation but they need to cater to the new generation by keeping up with what they want.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 13, 2022 at 11:49am

Retail sector contributes to 18% of Pakistan’s GDP: Razzak Dawood

March 10, 2022 (MLN): Pakistan’s retail sector contributes 18% of the GDP, employ 16% of the workforce, said Razzak Dawood Commerce Adviser Razzak Dawood in 1st Future of Retail Business Summit (FOR2022) jointly hosted by Terrabiz Conferences and Chain stores Association of Pakistan (CAP) in Karachi on Wednesday.

A central objective of the Summit was to bring Pakistan’s diverse retail sector onto one cohesive platform.

The adviser said that the retail sector was critical to fueling supporting sectors such as construction and transportation. He further stated that the growth of the retail sector was a strong indicator of development and progress in the country.

Industry stalwarts used the platform of cross-sector key stakeholders to identify areas where collaboration could be made and improvements could benefit growth. The aggregate representation of business and technology allowed participants to envision how they could create the future of their retail brands and be part of this accelerating ecosystem. Retail legends such as Seema Irfan, founder of Bareeze and Founder of Al Fatah stores, Irfan Shaikh shared insights into the challenges they faced in building brands and serving customers in Pakistan.

An underlying theme that was highlighted in addition to the future of retail, is how resilient brands survived the challenges of the pandemic and became more customer-centric upon their reopening. The conference was supported by Pakistan Fintech Association, P@SHA and A.F. Fergusson & Co. As Knowledge Partners.

The sessions were chaired by august speakers such as Steve Dennis (Amazon Bestselling Author); Nadeem Hussain (PFN), Amir Paracha (Unilever); Saira Awan Malik (TCS); Faisal Riaz (Dolmen Mall); Seema Aziz (Sefam;); Shamoon Sultan (Khaadi), Ehsan Saya (Daraz), Ibad Ahmed (PandaMart), Guest of Honor M. Azfar Ahsan (Board of Investment) among the many industry leaders from retail, brands, e-commerce, fintech and taxation. In a special video address at the summit, Commerce Adviser Razzak Dawood expressed his appreciation for the conference and how the event would play a critical role in shaping the future of retail in Pakistan.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 17, 2022 at 8:43pm

#India's Size Illusion by Arvind Subramanian. #Indian policymakers should avoid succumbing to the illusion of size, and reconcile themselves with their country's current status as a middling power. #Modi #BJP #Hindutva #Russia #Ukraine #China @ProSyn

True, India’s economy is undeniably large. According to the International Monetary Fund, India is the world’s third-largest economy in purchasing-power-parity terms, with a GDP of $10 trillion, behind China ($27 trillion) and the United States ($23 trillion). At market exchange rates, its GDP of $3 trillion makes it the sixth-largest economy, behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

But India’s economic size has not translated into commensurate military strength. Part of the problem is simple geography. Bismarck supposedly said that the US is bordered on two sides by weak neighbors and on two sides by fish. India, however, does not enjoy such splendid isolation. Ever since independence, it has been confronted on its Western frontier by Pakistan, a highly armed, chronically hostile, and often military-ruled neighbor.

More recently, India’s northern neighbor, China, also has become aggressive, repudiating the territorial status quo, occupying contested land in the Himalayas, reclaiming territory in the east, and building up a large military presence along India’s borders. So, India may have fish for neighbors along its long peninsular coast, but on land it faces major security challenges on two fronts.


Then there is the question of market size. As Pennsylvania State University’s Shoumitro Chatterjee and one of us (Subramanian) have shown, India’s middle-class market for consumption is much smaller than the $3 trillion headline GDP number suggests, because many people have limited purchasing power while a smaller number of well-off people tend to save a lot. In fact, the effective size of India’s consumer market is less than $1 trillion, far smaller than China’s and even smaller relative to the potential world export market of nearly $30 trillion.

India needs to accept, and act in line with, its current status as a middling power. Over time, rapid and sustained economic growth could make India the major power it aspires to be. Until then, it must look past the illusion of size and reconcile itself with strategic realities.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 25, 2022 at 8:12am

#Pakistani B2B #ecommerce #startup firm raises $22m in series A #investment round led by Sary, a B2B marketplace that focuses on the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) markets. Sarmayacar and Systems Limited also participated in the round.

Jugnu said that more than one million kiryana (mom and pop) stores in Pakistan lack access to convenient inventory procurement, and that over two-thirds of retail stores don’t get serviced directly by any organized distribution channel.

The startup aims to resolve these challenges by connecting retail stores and SMEs directly to manufacturers through its app.

Since its establishment, Jugnu has onboarded more than 30,000 kiryana stores across Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad, and it is currently expanding into other cities. It has also started offering buy now, pay later services for kiryana owners.

Jugnu was founded in 2019 by Sharoon Saleem, Yasir Memon, Syed Khurram Haider, and Ahsan Muhammad Khan.

In addition to the investment, Sary has also entered into a partnership with Jugnu.

“The strategic investment and alliance with Sary paves way for consolidation in the B2B space in MENAP, providing both companies with the ability to leverage diverse expertise and talent transfers across the region,” the companies said in a joint statement

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 25, 2022 at 1:01pm

Colabs gets $3 million seed to expand across #Pakistan, launch back-office SaaS solution. #Startup hosts 100+ firms with 1,200 people at 3 locations in #Lahore. It plans to open 100,000 seats nationwide in next 5 years, including #Islamabad & #Karachi.

Lahore-based coworking space startup Colabs is set to roll out a SaaS product to enable businesses to meet back-office needs including company registration, talent sourcing and management, payroll processing, and legal and tax compliance. It also plans to hire more staff, which will include increasing the product team for its SaaS workspace business service that is emerging from the beta phase.

The new plans come after the startup secured $3 million in seed funding in a round led by Indus Valley Capital, Zayn Capital and Fatima Gobi Ventures, the first time that the three Pakistan-focused VCs are investing in a startup together.

“We realized that people setting up operations in Pakistan need other services; they need help to set up companies, process payrolls and to ensure tax compliance,” Colabs co-founder and CEO Omar Shah, a former investment banker, told TechCrunch. “That is why we introduced our business solutions.”

“Our plan is to get to 600 paying customers in the next 12 months, and from there we will roll this product out to the market,” said Shah.

Shah and his twin brother Ali Shah co-founded Colabs as a coworking outfit for entrepreneurs launching businesses and multinationals setting up hubs in Pakistan. This was in 2019, when they were inspired by the flourishing startup ecosystem and advancing technology space in the country.

Prior to launching Colabs, Shah worked in the private equity sector for about eight years, with his last assignment at Abraaj Capital, before he collaborated with his brother, who operates long-established family-run real estate and development firm SABCON, to launch the startup. The family-owned real estate firm develops Colabs spaces.

Planned national expansion
The startup hosts over 100 companies with a combined 1,200 people across its three locations in Lahore. It plans to open 100,000 seats across the country over the next five years in a nationwide expansion to major cities, including Islamabad and Karachi.

“The idea for Colabs is to create spaces across the country, where we can service freelancers, startups, SMEs and large enterprises. It is a community for anyone who wants to start up their career or a company or wants to enter the country. Colabs will support them in their journey. We want to become that gateway into Pakistan,” said Shah.

“Our growth plan is very ambitious. But we see a demand for what we are offering because by the time we open our new spaces, they are already sold out. And this is because there are so many companies that are entering the country. And so many startups here that are raising capital and want to be inside spaces like ours, as opposed to investing in their own campus,” he said.

The rise of flexible workplaces has also grown amid the pandemic as more companies reduce the overhead associated with operating exclusive physical locations. Coworking spaces like Colabs also host events, which are important for networking, learning, or meeting potential investors or clients.

According to Shah, the rising interest in Pakistan by major investors like Tiger Global means that the growth of the country’s startup ecosystem is set to continue, increasing the demand for spaces like Colabs. Investments into Pakistan rose to $350 million in 2021 amid a fintech and e-commerce boom.

Colabs’ new funding brings the total amount raised by the startup to $4 million, including capital from an unannounced pre-seed round.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 29, 2022 at 8:12pm

About SPAR Pakistan

SPAR is a supermarket offering fresh fruits and vegetables, fresh meat, grocery and household products with an in-store pharmacy and bakery.

SPAR is an international retail chain with over 13,000+ stores in 48 countries. In Pakistan SPAR Supermarket has 3 stores and has plans to expand across the country.

The store has its presence in two locations in Karachi; one at Alamgir Road, Sharfabad and the other at Miran Shah Road, Muhammad Ali Society/KDA scheme 1. The Faisalabad store is located on Eden Valley Road.

KARACHI SPAR SHARFABAD MS Tower, Alamgir Road, Sharfabad, Karachi SPAR KDASaima Twin Tower, Miran Shah Road, M.Ali Society, Karachi Map linkSPAR NORTH NAZIMABAD Shahrah-e-Humayun, North Nazimabad, Block F, Karachi. SPAR D.H.A PHASE VIII9-C, Lane 4, Phase VIII, Zulfiqar & Al Murtuza commercial area, Phase 8 Defence Housing Authority, Karachi, 75500

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 29, 2022 at 8:27pm

International supermarket chains in Pakistan:

Carrefour (Hypermart) French

Metro Cash & Carry German

SPAR Dutch

Tesco British


Imtiaz Supermarket local Pakistani chain

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 29, 2022 at 8:27pm

International Fast Food Chain Restaurants in Pakistan

22 – Fatburger

21 – Butlers Chocolate Cafe

20 – Cinnabon

19 – Texas Chicken

18 – CP Five Star

17 – Pepe’s Piri Piri

16 – Uncle Tetsu

15 – P.F. Chang’s

14 – Gloria Jeans

13 – Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf

12 – Nandos

11 – Papa Johns

10 – Hardees

9 – Johnny Rockets

8 – Baskin Robbins

7 – Subway

6 – KFC

5 – Dominos

4 – Dunkin Donuts

3 – Pizza Hut

2 – Burger King

1 – McDonald’s

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 30, 2022 at 8:29am

Faseeh Mangi
PayPal founder and billionaire investor Peter Thiel invests in Pakistan's startup space for the first time

Thiel participates in PriceOye's round

It sells consumer electronics such as mobile phones and raised $8 million in seed funding


A Pakistani startup, which has taken inspiration from China’s and India’s Flipkart to build a managed marketplace of electronics products, said on Tuesday it has raised seed funding from scores of investors including PayPal founder Peter Thiel.

Launched in March 2020 — just two weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged the world — the Islamabad-based startup PriceOye offers a range of electronics products, including smartphones, TVs and home appliances.

Its seed funding round was led by JAM Fund, a venture capital firm by Tinder founder Justin Mateen. The institutional funding round also included participation of Beenext, DG Daiwa, Mantis VC, HOF Capital, investor Palm Drive Capital and Atlas Ventures, among others. Angels including Thiel, Immad Akhud of Mercury Bank, and Asif Keshodia of Souq also participated in the round — alongside previous investors Fatima Gobi Ventures, SOSV, and Artistic Ventures. This is Thiel’s maiden investment in Pakistan.

PriceOye has served 45 million unique users in Pakistan in the last two years, covering 37.5% of the country’s total internet userbase, Adnan Shaffi, co-founder and CEO of the startup, told TechCrunch in an interview.

“We are the second most visited shopping website in the entire country, with over two and a half million monthly active users coming on the platform, doing research using our product recommendation engine, and then getting to know about different products,” he said.

After exiting two startups, Adan and his brother Adeel Shaffi got the idea of launching PriceOye when they were doing “a lot of island hopping” in Southeast Asia. The duo looked at several startups in Indonesia and India and found the Asian markets were seeing similar consumer internet trends play out — just at a different pace. They built a thesis that Pakistan will see similar adoption of consumer internet services in the next four to five years.


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