Pakistan Household Survey HIES 2024-25 Raises More Questions Than It Answers

Recently released HIES 2024-25 household integrated economic survey by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)  raises more questions than it answers. For example, it shows that Pakistani households are buying lower amounts of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs in the last four years, implying that people are eating less to cover other expenses, like electricity and gas. But it doesn't explain why the households have reported significantly lower purchases of these items than production reported recently by the PBS. What is the source of this discrepancy? Is the data flawed? Or, is it missing a new trend toward less home cooking? Is the young urbanized population buying more  prepared foods? Are they ordering out more often using ubiquitous food delivery services?  Let us try and understand it in more detail. 

21% Pakistanis Buy Tandoori Nan. Source: Gallup Pakistan

Data Discrepancy: 

There is a significant discrepancy in household data for per capita monthly consumption of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs. For example, the HIES 2024-25 reports 6.59 Kg of wheat consumption per capita per month, which translates into 79 Kg per person per year. The wheat production data from PBS shows 30 million tons or 120 Kg per capita in 2025.  We know that Pakistan did not export wheat last year. So what happened to the 41 Kg per capita difference? It is 30% of the total production reported, too large to be explained away as waste in the system. It was most probably bought by food businesses and eventually consumed by Pakistani households. There are similar discrepancies in meat, eggs and other food data, with reported household consumption being far below production. 

Household Food Items Purchase Data. Source: HIES 2024-25 

Prepared Foods:

A 2025 Gallup survey revealed that 21% of Pakistanis buy tandoori naan. Pakistan's prepared food market is experiencing robust growth, with the Convenience Food sector valued at $6.91 billion in 2025, projected to grow at 5% annually, driven by Ready-to-Eat (RTE) meals and frozen foods, especially RTE/RTC (Ready-to-Cook) products like frozen snacks. Key trends include rising demand for time-saving, convenient options due to urbanization, growing health consciousness (organic/natural), and dominance by flexible packaging, with online delivery also expanding rapidly.

Urbanization in Pakistan. Source: World Bank

Urbanization:

The World Bank researchers have recently concluded that 88% live in urban areas. Their conclusion is based on satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanization (DoU) methodology. The official Pakistani figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) put the current level of urbanization at 39%. The source of this massive discrepancy is the government's reliance on administrative boundaries rather than population density and settlement patterns, according to the World Bank working research paper titled  "When Does a Village Become a Town?". 

Ultra-Processed Foods:

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) like biscuits, sugary drinks, chips, and packaged snacks, are a growing concern in Pakistan. Such foods are contributing to rising obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Obesity causes non-communicable diseases (NCD) which are now among the leading causes of death in Pakistan.

To deal with the obeseity crisis, several Pakistani pharmaceutical companies have started domestic production of generic versions of GLP-1 (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1) drugs Ozempic/Wegovy (Semaglutide) and Mounjaro/Zeptide (Tirzepatide). 

Food Delivery Services:

Pakistan's food delivery market is experiencing rapid growth, projected to hit $2.35 billion in 2025, driven by high smartphone penetration, a young urban population, and increased convenience-seeking, with Foodpanda dominating but facing a growing trend of direct restaurant ordering and a demand for diverse, tech-enabled options despite past economic challenges.

Street Food Growth:

With rising urbanization, the street food sector in Pakistan is vibrant and growing. It is crucial for livelihoods and affordable food. Deeply embedded in culture, choices range from savory samosas and chaat to bun kebabs, pakoras, pani puri, and biryani, popular for convenience and taste.

Fast Food Boom:

Pakistan’s fast food industry is experiencing rapid growth, making it the 8th largest fast food market globally. With a large consumer base, the demand for fast food continues to grow, contributing to the economy in significantly. The industry’s annual growth rate stands at 20%, highlighting its rapid expansion and increasing consumer preference for quick-serve meals.

Summary:

The HIES 2024-25 report recently issued by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics implies that Pakistani households are eating less to save money to pay for rising energy bills. I think this is misleading for two reasons: 1. It does not explain why reported household consumption figures are significantly lower than per capita production of these food items and 2. It completely ignores the impact of rapid urbanization that is causing Pakistanis to change their eating habits, such as consuming increasing amounts of prepared foods. 

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Comment by Riaz Haq on October 17, 2026 at 9:26am

The Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) market in Pakistan is growing at an , ranking as the 8th largest fast-food market globally with an estimated 180 million consumers. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Key Market Metrics & Performance
  • Market Scale: Pakistan's food processing sector is the country's second-largest industry overall, and fast food acts as a primary urban growth engine. [1, 2, 3]
  • Leading Brands: KFC dominates the landscape with annual sales exceeding $500 million (approx. 14,000 crore PKR). Other major international and local players include McDonald's Pakistan (managed by Lakson Group/Siza Foods with 53+ locations), Tim Hortons (expanding rapidly across Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities), Burger O'Clock, OPTP, and Kababjees Group. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
  • Menu Trends: Chicken remains the top ingredient (featured in 29% of QSR menu items), while compact, high-efficiency store formats (300–800 sq. ft.) with streamlined menus are outperforming traditional casual dining. [1, 2]
  • Pricing & Economics: Average menu prices in the QSR channel dropped slightly by about 2.58% amid broader economic adjustments, even as real GDP grew by 3.70% in FY 2026. [1, 2]
Growth Drivers
  • Urbanization & Demographics: A young, brand-aware urban population increasingly favors fast, convenient, and halal-friendly dining options. [1, 2]
  • Digitization & Delivery: High reliance on online ordering platforms, digital signage, and direct-to-consumer app tech is reshaping how kitchens handle peak-hour demand. [1, 2, 3]
  • Operational Shifts: Brands are moving away from bloated menus toward standardized, high-margin items like fried chicken, wraps, and specialty coffee. [1, 2]
Main Industry Challenges
  • High Attrition: Frontline employee and rider turnover rates frequently exceed 130% to 150% annually.[1]
  • Platform Dependence: Heavy reliance on third-party delivery aggregators strains profit margins and limits direct customer data ownership. [1]
  • Supply Chain & Inflation: Managing consistent ingredient quality, energy/LPG costs, and strict operational standards requires heavy systemic investment. [1, 2]
Comment by Riaz Haq on October 19, 2026 at 9:57am

UK-Backed Digital Eye System Expands Tax Monitoring Across Pakistan's Cement Industry - News and Statistics - IndexBox

https://www.indexbox.io/blog/uk-backed-digital-eye-system-expands-t...

Production at every one of Pakistan's 27 cement plants is now being monitored through the Digital Eye system, which assists the Federal Board of Revenue in tightening tax compliance and boosting revenue for public services. Initially trialled during 2023, the platform relies on sophisticated video analytics to watch manufacturing lines continuously, giving both plants and the FBR an independent account of output. Operating in tandem with the FBR's Track and Trace System, it affords tax officials clearer insight into production volumes while cutting back on manual checks and paperwork. Senior FBR officials joined British High Commissioner Jane Marriott at Fecto Cement to witness the technology in action. The group walked the production line, watched the monitoring setup and heard a briefing on how the tool underpins tax administration reforms. Marriott, who holds the CMG and OBE honours, remarked that Digital Eye exemplifies UK-Pakistan collaboration producing tangible results. She highlighted that the system was created in Pakistan and is now run across the country by the FBR, illustrating how innovation can be expanded to reinforce tax compliance, encourage fair competition and enhance transparency. She added that the UK takes pride in having backed that effort via technical know-how while assisting in building the institutional capacity required to maintain it. Dr. Najeeb Ullah, the FBR's Chief of Reforms and Modernisation, stated that the outcomes are self-evident. He observed that live production tracking has already bolstered compliance in cement and sugar without placing extra strain on taxpayers who comply. He said the current priority is to solidify existing gains, sharpen accuracy, strengthen the skills of internal teams and broaden the system into additional industries. Ullah noted that reliable production figures shield businesses that report truthfully, and he thanked the UK for its technical assistance via REMIT, adding that the FBR intends to carry this method into more sectors. A Pakistani technology firm built the solution, which was piloted, honed and then deployed nationally with UK technical assistance. The initiative showcases how Pakistani ingenuity can be brought to scale through global partnership to achieve reforms at a countrywide level. Interest in the technology and the broader reform it supports is also emerging from nations throughout Africa, which are examining Pakistan's approach for guidance on updating tax compliance. The system works in parallel with the FBR's Track and Trace System. Whereas Track and Trace logs items departing the production line, Digital Eye separately observes manufacturing via AI-driven video analytics, enabling both systems to be verified against each other and boosting trust in declared output. UK assistance has additionally enabled the FBR to develop the capacity to run, service and advance the system on its own. What started as a trial has grown into a national system spanning all 27 cement factories in Pakistan and has been broadened to sugar. Additional plans exist to widen the method to other sectors. Pakistan's government has reported that wider reforms aided in recovering Rs 32 billion from cement and lifted recorded sugar production by 31% in the latest crushing season. These outcomes stem from various policy and compliance steps, with Digital Eye being one component.

Please mention the Source: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/uk-backed-digital-eye-system-expands-t...

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