Comment by Riaz Haq on December 2, 2025 at 9:40am

Beyond Nuclear: Pakistan’s Quiet Shift to Mass-Produced Conventional Strikes

https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/beyond-nuclear-pakistans-qui...

On 25 November 2025, the Pakistan Navy’s (PN) Director General Public Relations (DGPR) announced the successful test-firing of the SMASH (i.e., Supersonic Missile Anti-Ship), an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).

The SMASH has a stated range of 300-350 km and can be deployed from the Zulfiquar-class (F-22P) frigate. Being an ASBM, the missile includes a terminal-stage seeker – either active-radar homing (ARH) or (as with other Pakistani anti-ship munitions, like the Taimur air-launched cruise missile) – imaging infrared (IIR) for engaging moving targets.

The SMASH is one part of the PN’s evolving munitions strategy, which also includes the Harbah NG subsonic anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM), the Zarb subsonic ASCM, and the CM-302 supersonic-cruising missile (SSCM).

The Harbah NG is deployed from two Azmat-class fast attack crafts (FAC) (i.e., PNS Himmat and PNS Haibat), while the CM-302 was inducted through the four Tughril-class (Type 054A/P) frigates. The Zarb, however, is the PN’s primary coastal/land-based ASCM system.

There are several major discussion points from this test. First, and the most obvious, is that the SMASH is a sign of the PN building an anti-access and area-denial (A2/AD) strategy anchored to long-range munitions, submarines, special mission aircraft, unmanned aerial systems (UAS), unmanned surface vessels (USV), and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV).

Several analyses by Quwa discussed each of these aspects separately, and these can be found in the list of articles below:

While the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) combat aircraft and the Pakistan Army’s long-range guided rockets drew the most attention in the May 2025 conflict, the PN’s relatively rapid quantitative and qualitative growth into a regionally impactful maritime power has not drawn the level of attention it merits. A future Quwa piece will tie these different aspects to build the complete picture of where the PN is heading and, for actionable perspectives, which reference points it could be using to develop its doctrine.

This article, however, will contend that Pakistan is seeking to scale its adoption of conventional ballistic missiles by integrating with China’s supply chain in the near term and indigenizing over the long term.


One sign of this is that the SMASH and Fatah 2, which represent the PN’s and PA’s respective missile programs, share a common platform. For example, both missiles appear to share a similar fuselage and aft-stabilizer configuration.

The stated ranges of each missile are more challenging to align. According to the PN, the SMASH has a stated range of 300-350 km, while the Fatah-2 has a stated range of 400 km. Furthermore, the ‘Abdali Weapon System’ – i.e., likely another derivative of this family (Fatah-3) but designed as a strategic/nuclear munition – has a range of 450 km. While different, the missiles do not vary significantly in their respective range coverages.

One common refrain against Pakistan’s munitions program is that they are simply procured off-the-shelf from China or ‘re-stickered’ Chinese products with a Made in Pakistan label. To be fair, the refrains are grounded in some facts, but in areas that are easy and tempting to conflate with the efforts of the National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM) to develop Pakistan’s indigenous munitions stack.

It is no secret that Pakistan is not an industrial power nor a key scientific R&D hub. Thus, one should expect even NESCOM to draw on Chinese technology inputs, but as one part of a chain feeding into an original design. In other words, the final product – with its performance, specifications, and feature set – would be designed by NESCOM, but, due to cost and domestic constraints, it will rely on both domestic and overseas (mainly Chinese) inputs.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 2, 2025 at 9:41am

Beyond Nuclear: Pakistan’s Quiet Shift to Mass-Produced Conventional Strikes

https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/beyond-nuclear-pakistans-qui...

The key point is to understand the difference between an ‘original design’ and an ‘indigenous system.’ Longtime readers of Quwa may recognize that this author uses these terms to refer to distinct things. A country could design its own original solution; however, an original design does not necessarily mean that it draws on indigenous inputs.

One example is the Saab Gripen. Saab designed the fighter but sourced many of its critical inputs from other countries, primarily the United Kingdom and the United States. Sweden was still involved in the areas where it had expertise and could scale for production, but ultimately, the Gripen leans on British and American inputs – e.g., the GE F404/414 turbofan engine, the Leonardo active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar stack, and BAE technology for the flight-control system – to fly.

Thus, this author contends that Pakistan’s critical programs, including its ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, loitering munitions, and others, all leverage a similar approach. The solutions (e.g., SMASH) are original in that NESCOM designed them, but it drew on a mix of domestic and Chinese inputs to bring those designs into a serviceable state. Furthermore, as Pakistan builds its conventional strike capabilities quantitatively, that dependence on foreign inputs will grow in the short term, as there is no other realistic path to scale up production to the necessary volumes without integrating foreign suppliers.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 3, 2025 at 4:10pm

The Whistle Blower
@InsiderWB
Breaking News:

Chief of Naval Staff Dinesh K Tripathi takes a jibe at Indian Air Force.

"Keeping our capital ships inside was a deliberate force-protection and perception-management choice. You deny the enemy the spectacle they are preparing for. In that sense, the Navy protected its credibility, and there is a lesson in this for the Air Force too: sometimes the strongest move against Pakistan is refusing the engagement they are trying to script."

https://x.com/InsiderWB/status/1996228955263627368?s=20

----------

The quote, which advocates for a strategic refusal to engage with an adversary on their own terms, is from an analysis related to a past military standoff involving Pakistan. The author is likely a military strategist or commentator, but their specific name is not available in the search results.
The full quote is: "Keeping our capital ships inside was a deliberate force-protection and perception-management choice. You deny the enemy the spectacle they are preparing for. In that sense, the Navy protected its credibility, and there is a lesson in this for the Air Force too: sometimes the strongest move against Pakistan is refusing the engagement they are trying to script."
The context is the strategic decision-making during a period of tension, likely an India-Pakistan standoff, where the navy chose a defensive posture (keeping capital ships in port) as a form of "perception management" to deny Pakistan a potential engagement or a propaganda victory (spectacle). The lesson offered to the Air Force is the value of strategic restraint and refusing to be drawn into a conflict on the enemy's preferred terms.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 20, 2025 at 5:33pm

Türkiye Delivers Second MILGEM Corvette to Pakistan Navy

https://caspianpost.com/regions/turkiye-delivers-second-milgem-corv...


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced that the second of four MILGEM corvettes were handed over to Pakistan under a 2018 defense contract.

Erdoğan noted that under the agreement, the first two corvettes were to be built at the Istanbul Naval Shipyard, The Caspian Post reports via Turkish media.

“The first ship, PNS Babur, was delivered to Pakistan on May 24, 2024. Today we hand over PNS Hayber, which has successfully completed all trials. The third and fourth corvettes will be built at the Pakistani shipyard in Karachi. PNS Bedir is planned for June 2026, and PNS Tarik in Q1 2027,” Erdoğan said.

The contract was awarded in 2018 to the Turkish state defense company STM (Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik ve Ticaret), which is tasked with delivering four MILGEM-class corvettes to the Pakistan Navy. The contract signing ceremony took place the same day in Rawalpindi.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 29, 2025 at 7:50pm

Tom Shugart
@tshugart3


Last week saw the release of the 2025 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s Congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open-source data.

So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report:

https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315617906401580?s=61&t=mgTxr...

————

While the 2024 report's exec summary says the driver of China's national strategy is to achieve China's "great rejuvenation" by 2049, the 2025 report sees China overall goal as the displacement of the U.S. as the world's most powerful nation.


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315631655338220?s=61&t=mgTxr...

———-

The new report's exec summary makes a pretty strong statement: the PLA is making progress specifically toward its goal to be able to achieve victory over Taiwan and balance against the U.S. - that China expects to be able to "fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027".

https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315635921010802?s=61&t=mgTxr...

———-

The new report also states that China has been practicing components of all of its options to force Taiwan unification, including strikes on U.S. forces in the Pacific that could "seriously challenge and disrupt" them out to 1500-2000 nm.


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315642363367634?s=61&t=mgTxr...

————-
In the section on PLA Navy modernization (which lacks some data like total hull count predictions as in previous reports), we see a statement that's been making some headlines: that the PLAN aims to produce six MORE aircraft carriers over the next decade.


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315675242598408?s=61&t=mgTxr...

———-

On the topic of PLA modernization, we see confirmation China's been testing 6th-gen aircraft, with an operational timeline of 2035.

We're also told China's KJ-3000 AEW aircraft will probably be the first to use digital radar, though I don't know why the E-2D & E-7 don't count?


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315671698313705?s=61&t=mgTxr...





—————+

This is the first time I can recall seeing a PRC carrier force size prediction from DoD, and tbh I find it somewhat astonishing.

This means that in addition to the 2 ski-jump carriers, and Fujian which is on sea trials now, and the purported CVN (not confirmed here by DoD)...




https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315678409261370?s=61&t=mgTxr...

————-


...DoD expects the PLA to at least launch five MORE carriers in the next 10 years?

For perspective, the USN will be buying its next five carriers over more than twice that timeline so...given that U.S. carriers are deployed globally, they will end up outnumbered in the Pacific.


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315682020528161?s=61&t=mgTxr...

Comment by Riaz Haq yesterday

Bilal Khan
@bilal_quwa
Quite interesting that the #PakistanNavy tested a SAM, a USV, and a loitering munition on the same day -- i.e., 3 key weapon systems that have risen in importance since the Russia-Ukraine War. I think they were testing or validating a maneuver centered on these 3 types of systems: https://quwa.org/pakistan-navy-news/pakistan-navy-tests-unidentifie...

https://x.com/bilal_quwa/status/2010577508538724713?s=20

----------------

Pakistan Navy Tests New USV & Loitering Munition From Private Sector

https://quwa.org/pakistan-navy-news/pakistan-navy-tests-unidentifie...

On 10 January, the Pakistan Navy (PN) announced it had successfully tested a new unmanned surface vehicle (USV) and a loitering munition. In addition, a PN Tughril-class (Type 054A/P) frigate also carried out a successful live firing of a LY-80(N) surface-to-air missile (SAM).

The loitering munition was confirmed to be a Mudamir LR, produced by the private company Sysverve Aerospace based in Rawalpindi. The Mudamir LR is from a growing portfolio of Shahed-style munitions being developed and produced in Pakistan.

Regarding the USV, the design does not match any of Pakistan’s known USV platforms, including an unnamed platform developed by the National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM) and others by Stingray Technologies (also developed by NESCOM), Beyond Koncept, and Woot-Tech.

It is possible that the newly tested USV is a technology demonstrator, possibly developed by NESCOM (but not confirmed), which appears to be managing at least two such platforms (one revealed in 2024 and a newer, stealthier strike platform via Stingray Technologies in 2025).

The newly tested USV was equipped with a mast-mounted, stabilized electro-optical and infrared (EO/IR) camera turret mounted aft of the hull. This was likely a remote driving camera used to provide the operator with a visual feed and, potentially, basic surveillance and/or targeting capabilities.

In addition, there is a white vertical element near the bow, which could be a communications and/or GNSS antenna within a radome structure. This would likely be the line-of-sight (LoS) control link for the operator to remotely control the USV.

Overall, there are no indications that this USV is configurable for munitions or warheads, so it is probably intended as a simpler system for testing and validation. Thus, the intent of the tests likely had less to do with the hull design and was instead focused on validating the integrated subsystems, such as the datalink and the EO/IR turret, which would be configured into the actual service-ready products.

A Hint at the PN’s Future Defensive Posture
In one day, the PN tested a USV, a SAM, and a loitering munition – i.e., arguably the three core pieces of a scale-driven anti-access and area-denial (A2/AD) posture…

Comment

• ‹ Previous
• 1
• 2
• 3
• Next ›
• Page