Pakistan Needs to Address Its Significant Data Quality Challenges

Policy-makers need data to formulate good policies. Good data produced by government agencies can be expected to lead to good policies and desirable outcomes. But data collection and statistical analyses require adequate methodologies and resources. Unfortunately, Pakistan's data quality gets a "C" grade by international agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Clearly the country faces significant data quality challenges.  These challenges range from estimation of the size and scope of the informal economy and electricity demand/consumption to education and nutrition.  Here are some examples of where the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data differs sharply from what is being reported by non-government groups: 



1. Gross Domestic Product:
A large chunk of Pakistan's economy is not documented. The PBS seems to be failing in making even the most rudimentary estimates of it. A 2024 joint study of the International Labor Organization and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority  (SMEDA) estimated Pakistan's undocumented economy at $457 billion. While other South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh and India, do include estimated undocumented GDP figures in their official GDP, Pakistan's official GDP figures do not include such estimates. If the Pakistani government decides to include estimates of the informal economy in its official figures, the country's GDP would jump to $1,059  billion in market exchange terms and over $4,000 billion in PPP terms. 
Pakistan's Total GDP, including Undocumented, Estimated at over $1 Trillion
2. Electricity Consumption:
Electricity demand and consumption are very important indicators of socioeconomic development in any country. Unfortunately, the PBS is failing to comprehend the scale of solarization and energy consumption in Pakistan. The country is experiencing soaring demand for electricity across all of the sectors of its economy. The new demand is being met by rapidly growing deployment of distributed solar, estimated at 38 GW as of June, 2025. In 2025, 44% of solar deployment was residential, followed by industry (26%), agriculture (21%) and commercial users (9%). The expansion of distributed solar has enhanced electrification across the economy, lifting Pakistan's electrification rate to 21.7% in FY2025 from 17% in FY2023, close to the global average of 22%. This surge to over 200 terawatt-hours of electricity is not reflected in official data, according to a report by Ember Energy titled "The solarization of Pakistan's energy economy". 
3. Out of School Children:
The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) Pakistan 2025 national report, officially released on March 26, 2026, shows that the number of "Out of School Children" (OOSC) aged 6-16 years in Pakistan is now 5 million, not 25 million generally reported.  "The findings on access are encouraging. Enrollment levels are high, with 92.2 percent of children aged 6–16 in school and only 7.7 percent out of school", says the ASER Pakistan 2025 report. ASER Pakistan is a citizen-led initiative, primarily led by Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi (ITA) in collaboration with various national and international partners to promote foundational learning. It also works closely with over 10,000 volunteers and numerous local civil society organizations such as the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF), PAL Network (People's Action for Learning),  UNESCO and federal and provincial government departments in Pakistan. 
4. Pakistan Household Survey:
The HIES 2024-25 household integrated economic survey by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) raises more questions than it answers. For example, it shows that Pakistani households are buying lower amounts of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs in the last four years, implying that people are eating less to cover other expenses, like electricity and gas. But it doesn't explain why the households have reported significantly lower purchases of these items than production reported recently by the PBS. What is the source of this discrepancy? Is the data flawed? Or, is it missing a new trend toward less home cooking? Is the young urbanized population buying more  prepared foods? Are they ordering out more often using ubiquitous food delivery services?  
Summary: 
Clearly, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) faces significant data quality challenges in areas such as the size of the informal economy to electricity consumption, education and nutrition. 
To keep up with the demands of modern governance, the PBS needs to carry out substantial reforms aimed at improving transparency, quality, and data credibility. The reliability of national indicators such as GDP, electricity consumption, education and nutrition is critical not only for local policy but also for global perception and investor confidence. It also requires additional funding for new technology, increased expertise in field offices and more enumerators in the field to collect data. The PBS's current annual budget of Rs. 5.1 billion (US$18 million) for a population of over 250 million people is not enough to do justice. 

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Comment by Riaz Haq on August 22, 2026 at 9:26am

Foreign firms invest $23 billion in Pakistan over decade, exceeding net FDI — report | Arab News

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2654105/pakistan

KARACHI: Foreign companies already operating in Pakistan invested more than $23 billion in the country over the past decade, exceeding cumulative net foreign direct investment of about $21 billion during the same period, the country’s largest foreign investors’ chamber said on Monday.

The comparison underscores a persistent challenge for Pakistan: established multinational companies have continued reinvesting in the country, but Islamabad has struggled to attract substantially larger amounts of new foreign capital.


Pakistan has stabilized after a severe balance-of-payments crisis in 2022-23 pushed it close to default and forced it to seek another bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Under a $7 billion IMF program approved in 2024, foreign exchange reserves have recovered, inflation has eased sharply from its 2023 peak and economic growth has strengthened, though the IMF still projects FDI at only around 0.5 percent of gross domestic product.

“The findings reaffirm the confidence that OICCI members continue to place in Pakistan’s long-term economic potential,” according to a latest report by the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry, or OICCI, which represents more than 200 foreign-invested companies operating across major sectors of the Pakistani economy.

“Our members have consistently reinvested in the country, expanded their operations and continued contributing to national development despite challenging economic conditions. Their cumulative investment of over USD 23 billion during the past decade is a strong vote of confidence in Pakistan’s future.”

OICCI said its members collectively generated Rs13.1 trillion ($47.2 billion) in gross revenue in fiscal 2025, held Rs42 trillion ($151.2 billion) in assets and invested Rs615 billion ($2.2 billion) in capital expenditure. They also paid Rs3.2 trillion ($11.5 billion) in taxes and other government levies, according to the report.

The chamber said its members’ cumulative investment over the decade exceeded Pakistan’s approximately $21 billion in net FDI over the same period. State Bank of Pakistan data define FDI as cross-border investment including equity, intercompany lending, capital equipment and reinvested earnings, net of outflows.

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Pakistan - Foreign Direct Investment, Net Inflows (BoP, Current US$) - 2026 Data 2027 Forecast 1970-2024 Historical….$2.7 billion in 2024


https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/foreign-direct-investment-net...

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) in Pakistan was reported at 2725600000USD ($2.7 billion) in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Pakistan - Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on August of 2026.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 22, 2026 at 9:34am

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan remains low relative to its GDP and regional peers, averaging around 0.6% of GDP. Inflows reached roughly $2.57 billion, driven heavily by key partners like China, though profit outflows and economic hurdles continue to challenge net capital accumulation.Current Trends and InflowsRecent Numbers: Inward FDI flows grew to approximately $2.56 billion, up from prior years, though monthly and yearly totals fluctuate based on macroeconomic conditions.Key Investors: China and Hong Kong remain the leading sources of investment, largely tied to energy, infrastructure, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Western nations, including the United States, maintain active investments in consumer goods, tech, and agribusiness.Profit Repatriation: Outflows via profit and dividend remittances by foreign firms have at times outpaced new incoming gross FDI, stressing foreign exchange reserves.Major Growth SectorsEnergy and Power: Historically captures a large share of foreign capital.ICT and Telecom: Information technology, software development, and telecommunications see steady interest.Agribusiness and Retail: Fast-moving consumer goods and franchise networks.Minerals and Special Economic Zones (SEZs): The state is increasingly targeting mining and industrial zones to revive capital inflows.Core Barriers to FDIPolicy and Political Instability: Frequent shifts in executive rules, high corporate tax rates, and security or political friction deter long-term commitments.Macroeconomic Vulnerability: High inflation risks, exchange rate fluctuations, and low foreign exchange reserves.Ease of Doing Business: Protracted bureaucratic hurdles and a large informal economy limit formal market transparency.

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Foreign direct investment in Pakistan rises 264% MoM to $179 million in July

Power sector draws $57.5 million and financial services $62.3 million; China, Canada top contributors as annual inflows fall 20%


https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/08/19/foreign-direct-inves...



Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan rose 264% month-on-month to $179 million in July, the first month of FY2026-27, but remained 20% lower than the inflow recorded in the same month last year, according to data released by the central bank on Tuesday.

The power and financial services sectors attracted the largest foreign investments during the month, while China and Canada were the leading sources of inflows, according to Topline Securities.

The power sector received $57.5 million in FDI in July, compared with $86.8 million in June and $70.8 million in July 2025.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 1, 2026 at 6:28pm

Foodpanda to double Pakistan operations in three years, eyes $2 billion economic activity

https://www.arabnews.pk/pakistan/foodpanda-to-double-pakistan-opera...


KARACHI: Food and grocery delivery service foodpanda Pakistan plans to double its operations in the country within the next three years, aiming to expand from six million to as many as 12 million households and generate $2 billion in economic activity this fiscal year, CEO Muntaqa Peracha has said.

Foodpanda is a subsidiary of Berlin-based Delivery Hero, which operates in more than 70 countries. The company generated $1.2 billion in economic activity in FY24 and now connects millions of users in 35 Pakistani cities with restaurants, home chefs, and its own pandamart grocery stores. It engages thousands of freelance riders and handles up to 20% of the total food business for its restaurant partners.

“Now that we’re at that point and the economy looks relatively stable we’re hoping to further accelerate that to get to a point of doubling our business over the next, you know, 24 to 36 months,” Peracha told Arab News in a recent interview.

Pakistan, with a population of over 240 million and mobile penetration exceeding 80 percent, has seen rapid expansion in digital commerce. The country’s e-commerce market — projected by Statista to grow at over 8 percent annually for the next five years — is driven by a tech-savvy youth demographic and increasing female participation. The online food delivery segment alone is expected to generate $2.35 billion in revenue by December 2025, while grocery delivery is projected to expand by 19 percent in 2026, according to Statista.

Pakistan’s food and grocery delivery space remains underpenetrated relative to regional peers, presenting opportunities for scale.


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Pakistan's restaurant and fast-food sector is expanding at an annual rate of 20%, making food processing the second-largest industry in the country after textiles.Key Growth DriversQuick Service Restaurants (QSRs): Compact QSR formats (300–800 sq. ft.) with tight, focused menus are outperforming traditional casual dining due to lower overhead and high demand. Local disruptors like Cheezious have scaled to over 45 branches by tailoring portions, pricing, and marketing to local tastes.Digital Delivery & Cloud Kitchens: Platforms like Foodpanda operate across dozens of cities, while delivery-only cloud kitchens help operators mitigate high real-estate costs and reduce capital risk.International Expansion: Major brands continue to invest; for instance, Subway Pakistan announced plans to triple its local footprint by opening over 200 new restaurants.Supply Chain & B2B Enablers: Users on LinkedIn share a consensus that supporting the ecosystem—such as supplying raw materials or providing specialized tech and marketing—offers high growth with lower operational risk than opening storefronts directly.

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Only 18% Pakistanis Report Ordering Food Online in the Past Week; Usage Higher Among FA+ Educated (46%) and Younger Respondents (22%) — Gallup & Gilani Survey
(Islamabad), 30th April 2026

According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, only 18% of Pakistanis report ordering food at home from Food Panda or another delivery service in the past week, while a large majority (72%) say they did not use such services.

A nationally representative sample of adult Pakistanis from across the country was asked the question: “Please tell us, in the past week, have you engaged in any of the following activities? – Ordered food at home from Food Panda or another delivery service?”. In response, 18% of respondents said they had ordered food online in the past week, while 72% said they had not. The remaining 10% fell into the Don’t Know/No Response (DK/NR) category.

These findings indicate that while food delivery platforms are increasingly visible in Pakistan, their use remains limited, with fewer than one in five Pakistanis reporting recent usage.

https://www.gallup.com.pk/post/39895

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 10, 2026 at 9:38am

The Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) market in Pakistan is expanding rapidly at an annual rate of 20% to 21%. [1] (https://www.scribd.com/document/441347539/Introduction-of-Fast-foods), [2] (https://www.paradigmshift.com.pk/pakistans-fast-food-boom/)Market Overview & Growth DriversGlobal Standing: Pakistan is the 8th largest fast-food market globally, supported by a consumer base of over 180 million people.Urbanization & Income: Rising disposable incomes, changing lifestyles, and rapid urban growth fuel the boom.Compact Formats: Smaller 300–800 sq. ft. QSR layouts with focused menus (8–12 core items) are outperforming large traditional casual dining spaces due to lower overhead and faster turnaround. [1] (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pakistans-restaurant-industry-quietl...), [2] (https://www.paradigmshift.com.pk/pakistans-fast-food-boom/)Key Players & ScaleMarket Leader: KFC Pakistan has grown into the country's largest food chain by annual revenue, crossing $500 million in sales, with a footprint well over 115 stores. [1] (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/abmajid_if-we-look-at-the-numbers-ob...), [2] (https://www.facebook.com/StartupPakistanRecorder/posts/kfc-continue...)New Entrants: International and regional players continue to enter, including Middle Eastern burger chain Salt expanding into the Pakistani market. [1] (https://qsrmedia.com/franchising/news/middle-east-burger-chain-salt...)Operational Shift: Major brands are adopting advanced technology like Microsoft Dynamics ERP systems to manage supply chains and reduce waste. [1] (https://www.microsoft.com/en/customers/story/1466331889737500799-kf...)Menu & Economic RealitiesTop Ingredients: Chicken appears in 29% of QSR menu items, making it the most-used protein, followed by cheese, vegetables, and beef. [1] (https://www.verdictfoodservice.com/data-insights/pakistan-qsr-menu-...)Average Spending: Local consumers spend a notable portion of their income on food, with typical fast-food bill values ranging from PKR 650 to PKR 1,200 depending on the city. [1] (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/qsr-industry-pakistan-afra-siab), [2] (https://www.scribd.com/document/441347539/Introduction-of-Fast-foods), [3] (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pakistans-restaurant-industry-quietl...)Current Challenges: The Pakistan QSR Industry faces hurdles like talent shortages in hospitality alongside rising operational and real estate costs. [1] (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/muhammad-mujtaba-haider-92268129_qsr...)

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 12, 2026 at 12:58pm

Is Pakistan poultry industry (2nd largest after textiles) part of its informal economy?

Yes, a significant portion of Pakistan's poultry industry operates within the informal (or unorganized) economy, though it also contains a modern, organized corporate segment. [1, 2]
Key Characteristics of the Sector
Unorganized Marketing Channels: The majority of broiler and egg marketing channels operate in the unorganized or informal sector, accounting for a large share of daily sales. [1, 2]
Slaughter and Processing: Only 5% to 6% of poultry slaughterhouses, processing, and value-addition activities take place within the organized sector. Most live birds are sold through local wet markets and uncertified neighborhood shops. [1]
Tax and Regulatory Reach: Much of the informal poultry network operates outside the formal tax net and strict regulatory frameworks, which contributes to local price volatility and supply shocks. [1]
Micro and Household Scale: A substantial amount of small-scale animal farming and poultry rearing occurs at the household level, representing a core part of informal rural livelihoods and home-based economic activities. [1]
The Organized Side: Alongside the informal market, Pakistan has a multi-billion-rupee commercial foundation with large, vertically integrated corporations (such as K&N’s, Sabroso, Big Bird, and Sufi Foods) that manage modern feed mills, hatcheries, and controlled-environment farms. [1, 2]


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Pakistan's poultry industry is the country's second-largest industry after textiles, functioning as a vital source of affordable animal protein and employment.

Key Statistics & Production

• Global Rank: Pakistan is the 11th-largest poultry producer in the world.
• Output: Produces approximately 2.5 billion kg of poultry meat and over 26–28 billion eggs annually.
• Employment: Supports and employs around 1.5 million families nationwide.
• GDP Contribution: Contributes roughly 1.3% to 1.5% to the national GDP and a major share of agricultural value-added.
• Meat Share: Poultry makes up over 40% of Pakistan's total meat production.

Structure & Operations

• Integration: Dominated by commercial feed mills, hatcheries, breeding farms, and broiler/layer operations with strong vertical integration.
• Housing: The vast majority of commercial broiler farming (97–98%) uses modern, environmentally controlled housing rather than open-sided sheds.
• Growth Rate: The sector has expanded at an average annual growth rate of roughly 8.1% over the past decade.

Core Challenges

• High Feed & Input Costs: Volatility in global grain and feed ingredient prices directly spikes local production costs.
• Disease Management: Susceptibility to outbreaks like Avian Influenza (H5N1, H7N3, H9N2), Gumboro, and Hydropericardium Syndrome (HPS).
• Export Deficit: Despite massive domestic output, poultry exports remain low (estimated between $4 million and $24 million), constrained by cold-chain logistics, sanitary standards, and international compliance gaps.
• Price Fluctuations: Retail chicken and egg prices experience sharp seasonal and feed-driven swings.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 19, 2026 at 9:56am

UK-Backed Digital Eye System Expands Tax Monitoring Across Pakistan's Cement Industry - News and Statistics - IndexBox

https://www.indexbox.io/blog/uk-backed-digital-eye-system-expands-t...

Production at every one of Pakistan's 27 cement plants is now being monitored through the Digital Eye system, which assists the Federal Board of Revenue in tightening tax compliance and boosting revenue for public services. Initially trialled during 2023, the platform relies on sophisticated video analytics to watch manufacturing lines continuously, giving both plants and the FBR an independent account of output. Operating in tandem with the FBR's Track and Trace System, it affords tax officials clearer insight into production volumes while cutting back on manual checks and paperwork. Senior FBR officials joined British High Commissioner Jane Marriott at Fecto Cement to witness the technology in action. The group walked the production line, watched the monitoring setup and heard a briefing on how the tool underpins tax administration reforms. Marriott, who holds the CMG and OBE honours, remarked that Digital Eye exemplifies UK-Pakistan collaboration producing tangible results. She highlighted that the system was created in Pakistan and is now run across the country by the FBR, illustrating how innovation can be expanded to reinforce tax compliance, encourage fair competition and enhance transparency. She added that the UK takes pride in having backed that effort via technical know-how while assisting in building the institutional capacity required to maintain it. Dr. Najeeb Ullah, the FBR's Chief of Reforms and Modernisation, stated that the outcomes are self-evident. He observed that live production tracking has already bolstered compliance in cement and sugar without placing extra strain on taxpayers who comply. He said the current priority is to solidify existing gains, sharpen accuracy, strengthen the skills of internal teams and broaden the system into additional industries. Ullah noted that reliable production figures shield businesses that report truthfully, and he thanked the UK for its technical assistance via REMIT, adding that the FBR intends to carry this method into more sectors. A Pakistani technology firm built the solution, which was piloted, honed and then deployed nationally with UK technical assistance. The initiative showcases how Pakistani ingenuity can be brought to scale through global partnership to achieve reforms at a countrywide level. Interest in the technology and the broader reform it supports is also emerging from nations throughout Africa, which are examining Pakistan's approach for guidance on updating tax compliance. The system works in parallel with the FBR's Track and Trace System. Whereas Track and Trace logs items departing the production line, Digital Eye separately observes manufacturing via AI-driven video analytics, enabling both systems to be verified against each other and boosting trust in declared output. UK assistance has additionally enabled the FBR to develop the capacity to run, service and advance the system on its own. What started as a trial has grown into a national system spanning all 27 cement factories in Pakistan and has been broadened to sugar. Additional plans exist to widen the method to other sectors. Pakistan's government has reported that wider reforms aided in recovering Rs 32 billion from cement and lifted recorded sugar production by 31% in the latest crushing season. These outcomes stem from various policy and compliance steps, with Digital Eye being one component.

Please mention the Source: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/uk-backed-digital-eye-system-expands-t...

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 30, 2026 at 10:28am

Narendra Modi and the battle for India

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/10/29/narendra-modi-and-the...

Economist on Unequal income growth in Modi’s India

Pro-business more than pro-market, Mr Modi has tilted India towards a model of national capitalism. Since Gujarat his rise has been bound up with that of Gautam Adani, who has built an empire spanning ports, airports, energy and defence. Tycoons like Mr Adani have, like Mr Modi, got hard things done and helped the economy grow—by around 6% a year (similar to before Mr Modi came to power). The Reserve Bank of India has largely kept inflation in check, too, avoiding the gyrations that undid previous prime ministers. Mr Modi has been unusually fiscally prudent.
But the rewards have been top-heavy. The tycoons have done as well as ever. Mr Adani’s wealth has risen from $7bn in 2014 to more than $100bn. Rural workers have not. Their real wages, which typically grew by 6% a year between 2006 and 2014, have since grown by 1%. Salaried workers have done worse still: adjusting for inflation, average pay for this group, accounting for around a quarter of the Indian workforce, has fallen by 5% since 2017

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