Comment by Riaz Haq on February 13, 2019 at 8:06am

#Aman19: #Pakistan #Navy’s expanding influence. The 46-nation naval exercise further cemented PN’s role as a leading and professional naval force not only in the #ArabiaSea region but also in the larger area of the #IndianOcean.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1908895/1-aman-19-pakistan-navys-expan...

KARACHI: PNS Aslat and Saif fire a volley from their main guns towards a target buoy 4,500 yards away as helicopters buzz overhead and warships maneuver in the Arabian Sea during the culminating phase of Aman-19, the largest multinational exercise ever hosted by the Pakistan Navy (PN).

With participation from 46 navies, the exercise further cemented PN’s role as a leading and professional naval force not only in the Arabia Sea region but also in the larger area of the Indian Ocean.
With geopolitics undergoing a major realignment phase, the navy has become a major tool to project force, create goodwill throughout the region and increase Pakistan’s influence in the region.

“Now, we match India in terms of presence. If the Indian Navy has been to an area in the Indian Ocean, the Pakistan Navy is present there too,” said a senior PN officer.

The focus on further bolstering the combat capability of the PN is evident with the recent agreement to purchase eight submarines and four 054AP class warships from China.

On the final day of Aman-19, warships of the PN and foreign participating navies, including the Royal Navy, US Navy and the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), came together to showcase the level of coordination achieved over days of drills at sea.

The drills kicked off by PN ships launching rocket depth charges at a simulated submarine target.

Pakistan-made PNS Moawin – the largest ship in the fleet – took centre stage during the second drill as it refueled ships while underway. PNS Aslat and PNS Saif took a position on either side of the fleet tanker the drill started. Underway refueling and replenishment is considered to be one of the most dangerous activities carried out at sea and extreme care was taken by PN personnel during the drill.

Gunnery demonstrations were also carried out by PN, Turkish Navy and (Chinese) PLAN (Navy) warships, and round after round from their main guns were thrown downrange towards target buoys with precision and speed.

As the drills ended, all participating ships presented a fleet review to the chief guest. Flying Pakistani colours – as a sign of respect – and their national flags, foreign and PN ships sailed past the chief guest during the phase.


Turkish frigate TCG Gokceada, PLAN’s Kunlun Shan and Luoma Hu, United Kingdom’s HMS Dragon, Royal Australia Navy’s Ballarat, American Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Decatur, Sri Lanka’s off-shore patrol vessel SLNS Sayurala, Royal Malaysian Navy’s support ship KD Mahawangsa and KD Kasturi, Italian Navy’s Carlo Margottini, Royal Navy of Oman’s Al Rahmani PNS Aslat, Saif, Shamsheer, Khyber, Azmat, Alamgir and Pakistan Maritime Security (PMSA) ships Kashmir, Zhob, Himmat and Basol were part of the fleet review.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 14, 2019 at 4:36pm

#Pakistan, #China build friendship ties at multinational naval exercise #Aman19 which also centered on #maritime #security to protect strategic economic projects such as the #CPEC as well as sea lanes from the Persian Gulf. https://sc.mp/vbm4x8 via @SCMPNews

Chinese naval commander says war games strengthened mutual understanding and trust

Drills included protection of strategic projects such as China-Pakistan economic corridor

The Pakistan Navy has hosted the Aman – which means “peace” – exercises every two years since 2007 to promote regional cooperation and stability. India has never been invited, in a sign of the long history of strained ties between the neighbours.

China, Japan and the United States were among the countries taking part in Aman-19, from February 8 to 12, which included maritime conferences, seminars and cross-ship visits, as well as 23 sea operations with main-gun firing, formation movement and replenishment-at-sea.

Shao Shuguang, commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s 998 Fleet, was quoted on a Chinese military social media account as saying the exercise had strengthened mutual understanding and trust between the participating navies.

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China sent one of its biggest warships, the Kunlun Shan amphibious landing vessel, to the exercise, signalling its close relationship with Pakistan and the key role both nations hold in the Indian Ocean, according to analysts.


“The Pakistan-China relationship is very strong, and this is one more illustration of the strength of the Pakistan-China relationship,” said Madhav Das Nalapat, honorary director of the department of geopolitics and international relations at Manipal University in India.

“China is also now becoming an important maritime power, especially in the Indo-Pacific. By aligning with China, Pakistan hopes to get the synergy of that.

“India by itself cannot have any primacy in the Indian Ocean. But along with the United States, the two countries together can have primacy in the Indian Ocean. India is positioning itself to be allied with the US, but has not yet reached there.”

Tridivesh Singh Maini, assistant professor with the Jindal School of International Affairs in India, said the exercises should be a cause for alarm for India. “They will keep an eye on what’s going on, but they don’t need to be too concerned,” he said.

The military exercise also centred on maritime security to protect strategic economic projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, as well as sea lanes from the Persian Gulf.

The US$62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is designed to connect China’s far west region of Xinjiang with Gwadar Port in Pakistan via a network of motorways, railways, oil pipelines and trading hubs.

The project is expected to be finished by 2030, and will provide China with an important trading route to the Middle East and Africa.

“India has very strenuously objected to the name CPEC being given to the part that goes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, but so far nothing has been done,” Nalapat said.

Kashmir has long been a hotbed for competing territorial claims between India and Pakistan. The two countries have fought three wars against each other since their independence from Britain in 1947, and two of those conflicts have centred on the Kashmir territorial dispute.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 17, 2019 at 10:51am

Construction on Gwadar Airport in Pakistan to start in April


https://www.airport-technology.com/news/pakistans-gwadar-internatio...

Construction of the proposed Gwadar International Airport in Pakistan is scheduled to start in April this year following the completion of planning work.

The $246m airport is located in the volatile Balochistan region and is said to be the largest in Pakistan.

Soil testing started in January last year and has now been completed, with 300 boreholes created in several locations.

Sources told the EurAsian Times: “Currently, the Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) comprising the Pakistani and the Chinese officials look forward to initiate work on the Gwadar Airport in March as the feasibility study of the project has been completed, reviewed and approved by the competent authorities.”

The proposed airport will span over an area of 4,300 acres and will be able to accommodate narrow-body aircraft, including ATR 72 and Boeing B-737, as well as wide-body aircraft such as Boeing B-747.

“The projects in Gwadar are conducted under a framework agreement with NDRC and a MoU with MOFCOM and the Exim Bank. Unlike many of the other CPEC projects in Gwadar, the New Gwadar International Airport is not financed by a loan from China but through a Chinese grant,” the sources told the publication.

The sources also told the news agency that the Pakistani government is likely to announce the initiation of formal work on the Gwadar International Airport in the next two weeks.

They added: “The provision of funds for this project would be ensured in line with the mutual agreement made between the Pakistani and the Chinese governments.”

The Government of Balochistan has already added the Gwadar Airport to its master plan for Gwadar, which also involves projects to transform the region into a financial hub.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 14, 2019 at 11:34am

#Pakistan Aims To Become A Natural Gas Hotspot. It has estimated conventional #gas reserves of 20 trillion cu ft and #shale gas reserves exceed 100 trillion cu ft, making it attractive to foreign #energy investors. #FDI OilPrice.com https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Pakistan-Aims-To-Become-A-N... #oilprice

Pakistan is eager to open up its gas deposits to foreign energy companies in a bid to boost domestic production amid soaring demand, two government officials told media this week. The country has trillions of cubic feet in natural gas reserves, and although some of these have been exploited, the last decade has seen an outflow of foreign energy investors because of Islamist violence. Is the worst over?

Pakistan, a country with a fast-rising population, has recently been plagued with power outages largely resulting from a shortage of fuel necessary to keep its power stations going. Imports of gas and LNG are on the rise, but Imran Khan’s government seems to be aware that domestic production is almost invariably cheaper.

As a result, Pakistan is now preparing to start tendering gas blocks to all parties interested in exploration.

“I expect in the second half of this year we will be auctioning at least 10, if not 20 blocks for exploration,” the head of the government’s task force for an energy reform, Nadeem Babar, told Reuters earlier this week. He added that the government was in the process of making changes to its natural gas exploration and production regulations and drafting the country’s first ever shale resource policy.

“Pakistan provides a level playing field for all the E&P companies and even state-owned companies also have to participate in bidding rounds and compete with other companies,” said the country’s Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources as quoted by The News International.

Pakistan imports nearly 80 percent of energy requirements from the international market. The country’s demand for energy has been increasing by 8 percent a year,” Ghulam Sarwar Khan also said, adding the government was doing its best to make Pakistan a more investor-friendly country as part of efforts to change the status quo in energy supply and demand.

Pakistan has estimated conventional gas reserves of 20 trillion cu ft and shale gas reserves exceed 100 trillion cu ft, which certainly makes the country an attractive destination for gas drillers as long as the security situation remains stable.

So far, the authorities have delineated more than 30 gas blocks, all onshore, Babar also told Reuters. If these attract sufficient interest, they could go a considerable way towards reducing the gas shortage plaguing the country, where demand for gas for 2017/18 was calculated at 6.9 billion cu ft daily, exceeding production by almost 3 billion cu ft.

With such demand levels—and rising, too—Pakistan is naturally an attractive destination for gas exploiters. Russia, Iran, and Qatar are all large suppliers. Earlier this week, Pakistani media reported government officials were negotiating an increase in Qatari LNG imports from 500 billion cu ft daily to 700 billion cu ft daily. Last month, the government inked an import deal with Gazprom for 500 million to 1 billion cu ft daily.

The country also recently completed two LNG import terminals but the super-cooled fuel is more expensive than Islamabad would like, especially given its level of import dependency.

According to Nadeem Babar, Aramco, Gazprom, and Exxon have already expressed interest in some of the blocks to be auctioned later this year. Italy’s Eni is already active in Pakistan and may join the bidders along with others attracted by the underexplored resources in the country where one of three wells yields commercial gas.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 26, 2019 at 10:26am

#ImranKhanPrimeMinister has seen high-confidence data indicating large #oil, #gas reserves. There's "kick pressure" from oil/gas in drilling. It was strong kick pressure that forced #ExxonMobil to stop #drilling for more mud to prevent blow-out. #Pakistan https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/448666-largest-oil-gas-reserves-e...

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 27, 2019 at 9:14am

Early indications are it’s a gusher from large #oil #gas reserves offshore in #Pakistan. That’s why #Exxon had to interrupt drilling and prepare to prevent dangerous blow out in Arabian Sea off the coast of #Karachi https://www.riazhaq.com/2018/06/pakistan-among-top-5-countries-to.html?m=1 …

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 27, 2019 at 9:22am

#Pakistan #oil good for whole region. Reserves will result in large cross-border capital flows, infrastructure #investment, energy #trades, and people-to-people exchanges. Development/utilization of reserves to be pillar of #economic integration, stability http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1143525.shtml#.XJuh24zOLig.twitter By Hu Weijia

Pakistan may soon hit the oil jackpot, and that will be good news for not only the country itself but all of South Asia as well as China and Gulf nations.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was quoted by local media outlet Dawn as saying that "there's a strong possibility that we may discover a very big (oil) reserve in our waters." If his prediction comes true, the discovery will help the South Asian country tackle its economic problems.

With Pakistan's economy in the doldrums, the cash-strapped country may have a more urgent need for foreign investment if massive oil reserves are indeed discovered. According to Dawn, US oil giant Exxon Mobil and Italy's ENI have been involved since January in drilling an ultra-deep oil well. 

There may be more international companies wanting to participate in related projects ranging from exploration to refining and logistics. The related investment will help Pakistan maintain its growth momentum.

China has sound cooperation in energy with Pakistan. A big oil find would stimulate investment enthusiasm among Chinese companies. China is willing to support Pakistan's efforts to seize the development opportunity such a find might bring, and handle any challenges. 

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was originally conceived as a strategic project with oil and gas pipeline links between Northwest China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and Pakistan's Gwadar port. 

If Pakistan discovers massive oil reserves, that will be a motivation to extend Pakistan's pipeline network further into Iran and India, and also to enhance energy cooperation with Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia. 

Not only China but also the whole region will benefit from economic integration through energy connectivity.

Using those reserves will likely result in large cross-border capital flows, infrastructure investment, energy trades, and people-to-people exchanges. The region will see the development and utilization of oil reserves as a pillar of economic integration and stability.

As for India, Pakistan's potential oil reserves will increase the country's attractiveness for Indian companies, as oil imports rise in India due to higher fuel demand despite bilateral disputes. 

The geopolitical picture in Asia has long been complex and uneven, but Pakistan's potential oil reserves are likely be a game-changer for the region, with economic cooperation in energy.

Hopefully India and Gulf nations won't ignore the opportunities to enhance energy cooperation with Pakistan and help fostering an energy network in Asia.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 1, 2019 at 10:07am

Tighter #Fiscal/#Monetary Policies To Weigh On Short-Term Growth In #Pakistan. #GDP to slow to 4.4% in FY2018/19 (July-June) and 4.1% in FY2019/20 due to negative impact from recovering #oil prices , from 5.4% in FY2017/18. #economy http://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/tig...

Key View

We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for Pakistan’s real GDP to slow to 4.4% in FY2018/19 (July-June), from 5.4% in FY2017/18, due to tightening monetary and fiscal conditions. 
Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions and slowing global growth will likely also dampen Pakistan’s economic outlook for the remainder of FY2018/19. 
We maintain our view for growth to come in at 4.1% in FY2019/20 as we expect the negative impact from recovering oil prices to outweigh the positives that will cushion the slowdown.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 1, 2019 at 10:23am

#Pakistan hikes #fuel prices 6.45% amid spiraling #inflation measured at 8.21% last month. #economy @AJENews https://aje.io/a9e3b

Pakistan's government has hiked fuel prices by up to 6.45 percent, as the country continues to face widening fiscal and current account deficits amid spiralling inflation.

On Monday, countrywide fuel prices increased to Rs98.89 ($0.70) per litre, with diesel prices at Rs117.43 ($0.83), a government notification said, hitting nine-month highs.

Pakistan subsidises the price of most fuels in the country, but has been cutting those payments in recent months as the newly elected Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government struggles to contain ballooning government expenditure amid an overall economic slowdown.

In the past six months, the country has received at least $8 billion in grants and loans from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and key strategic and economic partner China, with whom Pakistan is embarking on the $56bn China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.

The influxes have helped stave off a looming foreign reserve crisis, with central bank reserves back up to $8.56bn, or just over two months of imports, according to a central bank statement released on Thursday.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund’s Pakistan mission chief Ernesto Ramirez Rigo held two days of meetings with Pakistani Finance Minister Asad Umar, central bank officials and others ahead of an expected IMF bailout.

The bailout, which both Pakistani PM Imran Khan and IMF chief Christine Lagarde alluded to after a meeting in February, would be Pakistan’s 13th IMF programme since 1980. 

Spiraling inflation
The fuel price hike comes amid spiralling consumer inflation in the South Asian country, with consumer price inflation (CPI) hitting 8.21 percent last month, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the highest level since June 2014.

The inflation numbers have been mainly driven by the increasing prices of fuel and food, according to a PBS statement.


Pakistan battles to control inflation
On Friday, Pakistan’s central bank increased the country's interest rates by 50 basis points to 10.75 percent, saying that the economy was uner considerable strain.

"The current account deficit remains high, fiscal consolidation is slower than anticipated and core inflation continues to rise," said a statement accompanying the announcement.

As a result, the central bank has pared back its expected annual GDP growth rate projection from around 6 percent to 3.5 percent.

"The increase in petrol and diesel prices tend to raise inflationary expectations among consumers," said Saad Ali, head of research at Karachi-based Inter Market Securities. "Almost all sectors are affected by it, because in Pakistan most goods are still transported via road."

Ali said the central bank was currently attempting to discourage non-essential imports by raising interest rates and through currency devaluation. The Pakistani rupee has lost roughly 23 percent of its value against the US dollar in the last year.

"The initial problem that we had was a wide current account deficit and resultant depletion of forex reserves," said Ali.

"The current account deficit was widening because of consumer demand and robust industrial activity – both leading to higher demand for imports – so to curtail that the central bank had to first devalue the currency and increase interest rates," he added.

Ali said the measures taken thus far had managed to bring the current account deficit to a more manageable level, but that rising inflation continues to pose a significant threat to the economy.

"All of this is a reflection of the central bank trying to curtail demand," he said. “This will lead to modest GDP growth, but that will be a sign that they have been successful."

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 5, 2019 at 10:44am

Something Fishy Is Going on Between #Iran and #China (and #Pakistan). Pakistan is far ahead of Iran when it comes to fishing. #Pakistanis have put in place a new deep-sea policy that bans #fishing beyond 12 miles #offshore. #CPEC #Gwadar #Karachi https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/something-fishy-is...

both countries need China more than ever to help withstand US pressure, so it’s unclear whether either will be willing to antagonize Beijing over fishing rights.

China is one of the world’s largest importers and exporters of fish. Its fishery industry is among its most profitable export businesses. However, overfishing and depleted regional fish stocks have forced China to look for new resources around the world. Some countries, including in the European Union, send fish to China for processing and re-export back to those countries. Others have established their own fish processing facilities in China. However, domestic demand for fish in China continues to outstrip supply.

China is Pakistan’s largest fish export market. But Pakistan’s own resources are being depleted for many reasons, most critically over-fishing.In recent months, Pakistani officials have put in place a new deep-sea policy that bans fishing beyond 12 miles offshore. The policy has been effective in reducing the size of the catch but is highly unpopular within the fishing industry, which points to the foreign currency Pakistan earns from fish exports as an argument forrelaxing or removing the ban. The new policy has reduced Pakistan’s seafood exports and hurt its economy.

Pakistan is hoping that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will increase the profitability of its fish export business. CPEC has already improved methods of seafood transportation from Pakistan to China. Transportation of fish by land takes a fraction of time it takes by sea, is more cost effective, and decreases loss of quality before the fish arrives in China. Construction of an international airport at Pakistan’s Gwadar seaport, one of CPEC’s projects, is expected to further increase Pakistan’s seafood exports to China.

However, not everyone in Pakistan has welcomed these projects. Local fishermen in Gwadar port recently protested the construction of an expressway that has cutoff routes to the Arabian Sea. Strikes have frequently impacted fish exports to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other regional destinations.

Yet Pakistan is far ahead of Iran when it comes to fishing. The industry in Pakistan is an essential part of the economy and has a complex structure. Its numerous trawlers, which drag large fishing nets through water, are equipped to extract many types of seafood.

In contrast, Iran’s trawlers are either rented or foreign-owned, mainly from China. 

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