Comment by Riaz Haq on May 22, 2020 at 7:37am

Goldman Sachs gives #India’s growth forecast a ‘gigantic downgrade’. GS revised its growth forecast and said India's #economy is expected to contract by 5% for the fiscal year that began in April and ends in March 2021. #Modi #Recession2020 #BJP #Hindutva https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/coronavirus-goldman-sachs-on-india-...|twitter&par=sharebar

Prachi Mishra, chief India economist at the investment bank, said two reasons factored in the forecast revision: the poor set of economic data released in March and April as well as the extended nationwide lockdown that is expected at least until end of May.

The extended period of lockdown in India due to the coronavirus outbreak is set to take a toll on the country’s growth outlook, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs.

The bank revised its growth prediction this week for the full fiscal year in India that began in April and will end in March 2021. Gross domestic product is expected to contract by 5% for the year, worsening from the bank’s earlier prediction of a negative 0.4% growth.

“This is a really gigantic downgrade,” Prachi Mishra, chief India economist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday. “A forecast of minus 5% for the year as a whole would be as deep as compared to the deepest recession India has witnessed since 1979.”

India’s first-quarter GDP data is expected next week and the outlook remains bleak among economists.

The South Asian country was already facing an economic slowdown before the virus outbreak pushed the government to impose a nationwide lockdown that began in late March and has subsequently been extended multiple times at least until the end of May. Economic activity grounded to a halt as a result, affecting millions of small businesses as well as large corporations, while millions of people lost their jobs.

India now has over 118,000 cases of infections and more than 3,500 people have died, according to the health ministry.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 22, 2020 at 10:39am

Telenor Accelerator launches #EdTech Innovation program in #Pakistan. It provides curriculum and skill-based #education for school, college and university students, as well as additional courses incl personal development modules, #digital skills & #STEM https://www.telecompaper.com/news/telenor-velocity-launches-edtech-...

Telenor Velocity, the digital startup accelerator by Telenor Pakistan, has introduced its EdTech Innovation programme, to forge alliances with EdTech startups/scaleups. This initiative is launched in response to the closure of educational institutions and offices due to the coronavirus outbreak, Telenor said.
The programme provides curriculum and skill-based education for school, college and university students, as well as additional courses including personal development modules, digital skills, and STEAM (Science, technology, engineering, arts and mathematics) with a special focus on Robotics.

The Telenor Velocity EdTech Cohort has stepped forward to help students shift to online access and added a number of partners for this purpose including K-5 SABAQ Muse, a learning service based on videos, games and ebooks in multiple languages for early grades. The Edaksa service supports STEAM education and helps Pakistani high school students prepare and pass their standardized government exams; while the EDTechWorx content creation and collaborative delivery platform connects learner, educators and the overall industry. The Skills First online academy aims to allow users to develop their skills; while LearnObots aims to develop makers and creators of tomorrow, with a practical learning approach in the domain of Educational Robotics.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 27, 2020 at 6:59pm

Amid #COVID19 #lockdown, #Pakistan’s #textile #exports plummet 65% in April 2020 to $404 million from exports of $1,138.35 million in the same month of 2019. #economy #trade https://tribune.com.pk/story/2226611/2-pakistans-textile-exports-pl...

Textile enterprises have demanded that the government reopen all the textile industries along with the restoration of the zero-rated sales tax status as textile exports have been severely affected. In April 2020, textile exports declined 65% to $404 million against exports of $1,138.35 million in the same month of the previous year.

“This should set off alarm bells for the official quarters concerned,” remarked All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) Punjab Zone Chairman Adil Bashir.

In the wake of a heavy fall in exports as well as domestic sales of textile products, Bashir demanded the restoration of the zero-rated status for the five major export-oriented sectors in order to give a boost to the textile industry in its endeavours to increase local production and exports, and save millions of jobs.
He urged the government to take serious measures to overcome the liquidity issues of the textile industry.

Sales of all major textile categories plummeted in April, with garments being the most affected. Cumulatively, textile exports dropped 3% year-on-year in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year to $10.82 billion, said JS Research analyst Ahmed Lakhani.

Some improvement is expected in May as shipping delays have been reduced. Moreover, buying countries were also gradually easing the lockdown, which should support demand recovery, he added. In the prevailing situation, it is pertinent to see what special incentives can be offered to the export-oriented sectors. On the other hand, “the risk remains that despite the incentives, a potentially severe second and third wave of Covid-19 can neutralise any impact from the government incentives,” commented the analyst.

The Aptma chairman said the trend of exports in April 2020 was very frightening as Pakistan’s annual shipments to EU countries and the US, exceeding $10 billion, were fraught with risks due to delay and cancellation of export orders after the coronavirus lockdown and liquidation or closure of many retail chains. Pakistan Cloth Merchants Association Secretary-General Arif Ismail urged the Sindh government to allow all textile and allied industries to resume operations and comply with the prescribed SOPs.

The Aptma chairman stressed that the textile industry was the backbone of the country with more than 60% of total exports and the largest employer with widespread employment for professionals, skilled and unskilled workers.

He said the zero-rated regime was introduced in 2005-06 with declared objectives of eliminating cash liquidity issues, wiping out refunds of billions of rupees stuck for long, avoiding unproductive waste of man-hours in chasing tax refunds and eliminating the additional cost borne on the filing and follow-up of refund claims.

Bashir stated that 17% of sales tax was imposed on the textile industry with effect from July 2019 with lofty claims of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) of processing refund claims within 72 hours through the newly developed FASTER software system.

FASTER still lacks basic provisions like Section 8B, eight-digit HS code, etc, which hampers the system.

He raised eyebrows over the working of FASTER system and stated that due to inherent weaknesses in the system a large number of taxpayers had not been able to even file Annex-H.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 8, 2020 at 10:48am

#Pakistan IT, ITeS #Export Remittances Surge 23.42% In 10 Months Of Current FY to $1.003 billion, up from $812.648 during the same period in FY 2018-19. #technology UrduPoint


https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/it-ites-export-remittances-su...

Pakistan's information technology (IT) and IT-enabled Services (ITeS) export remittances comprising of computer services and call center services have surged to US $1.003 billion at a growth rate of 23.42% over the first 10 months of Financial Year 2019-20 (July April), in comparison to US $812.648 during the same period in FY 2018-19.

According to performance report of Pakistan Software Export board (PSEB), an organization under Ministry of IT and Telecommunication, IT Industry has been a star in Pakistan's economy and has achieved positive year on year growth as a result of strong government support, skilled entrepreneurs and a talented workforce.

Over 6,000 Pakistan based IT companies were providing IT products and services to entities in over 100 countries. Strong inventive were being provided to the IT industry and there were several projects intended to facilitate and assist IT Industry in its growth trajectory and to ensure continued upward momentum in local and export earnings.

Pakistan was ranked the 3rd most popular country for freelancing in the world and Pakistani IT companies are providing products and services to world's largest companies. Pakistan's ICT Industry had been a resounding success story for Pakistan, having achieved a stellar remittance inflow growth rate and being the largest net exporter in the services sector.

On the direction of Federal Minister for IT and Telecommunication to promote Pakistan's IT industry and to enhance its exports, all possible steps were being taken to ensure sustainable growth of Pakistan's IT Industry including strong incentives, tax breaks, capability and capacity improvement of the IT industry among others.

In view of the possible fallout of COVID- 19 pandemic, the Secretary IT directed to ensure close coordination with the IT industry to minimize the impact of the pandemic on the IT Industry and to take all possible steps to ensure maximum facilitation and assistance to the industry during these challenging times.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2020 at 9:49am

Economic Survey of Pakistan 2019-20


http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_20/Executive_Summary.pdf


As the economy has been subjected to demand and supply shocks, the outgoing fiscal year
2020 has witnessed a contraction in economic activity. The provisional GDP growth rate for
FY2020 is estimated at negative 0.38 percent on the basis of 2.67, -2.64 and -0.59 percent
growth in agricultural, industrial and services sectors respectively. For FY2020, the negative
performance of both Industry and Services overshadowed the growth in the agriculture
sector.

------
Total public debt was recorded at Rs 35,207 billion at end March 2020 compared with
Rs 32,708 billion at end June 2019, registering an increase of Rs 2,499 billion during first
nine month of current fiscal year while Federal Government borrowing for financing of its
deficit was Rs 2,080 billion. This differential is mainly attributable to depreciation of Pak
Rupee, increase in cash balances of the Federal Government and difference between face
value (which is used for recording of debt) and the realized value (which is recorded as
budgetary receipt) of PIBs issued during the period.

-------------

During Jul-April FY2020, remittances increased to $ 18.8 billion as compared to $ 17.8
billion during same period last year, with a growth of 5.5 percent. During July-March
FY2020, current account deficit (CAD) reduced by 73.1 percent to US$ 2.8 billion (1.1
percent of GDP) against US$ 10.3 billion last year (3.7 percent of GDP). The significant
reduction in CAD reflected mainly the impact of macroeconomic stabilization measures
taken by the government.
Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased to US$ 17.1 billion by end March
2020, up by US$ 2.6 billion over end-June 2019. The improvement in the Foreign Exchange
reserves led to 3.6 percent appreciation of Pak rupee against US dollar during Jul-February
FY2020.

-------------

Exports during July-April, 2019-20 remained $ 19.7 billion compared to $ 20.1 billion
during July-March, 2018-19, posting a decline of 2.4 percent. A sharp decline in REER due
to market based exchange rate and the government’s initiative to provide cheaper electricity
to the textile sector have enhanced the competitiveness of the Pakistani products in the
global market. The total imports during July-April FY2020 declined to $ 36.1 billion as
compared to $ 40.3 billion same period last year, thus registered a decline of 16.9 percent.
During Jul-April FY2020, remittances increased to $ 18.8 billion as compared to $ 17.8
billion during same period last year, with a growth of 5.5 percent. During July-March
FY2020, current account deficit (CAD) reduced by 73.1 percent to US$ 2.8 billion (1.1
percent of GDP) against US$ 10.3 billion last year (3.7 percent of GDP). The significant
reduction in CAD reflected mainly the impact of macroeconomic stabilization measures
taken by the government.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 15, 2020 at 9:51am

#Pakistan receives #PPE #export orders worth $100M. Orders include N95 #masks, gloves, goggles, face shields, gowns, shoes cover and bed sheets. Exports could top $500 million in the coming months as the #COVID19 #pandemic sweeps the world. #coronavirus http://v.aa.com.tr/1877892

Pakistan has bagged export orders worth $100 million for its domestically manufactured personal protective equipment (PPE), a government official said.

Fawad Chaudhry, the minister for science and technology, said many countries are interested in Pakistani equipment, and the figure could top $500 million in the coming months.

Pakistan’s Federal Cabinet earlier this month approved exports of PPE despite complaints by doctors and healthcare workers of shortages of protective gear including face masks, gloves, and overalls.

"Now we are producing masks including N95 masks, gloves, goggles or face shields, gowns, shoes cover and bed sheets for our hospitals, and even importing to other countries," Chaudhry told Anadolu Agency on Monday.

He said Pakistan also developed a coronavirus diagnostic kit, which has been approved by the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan. "This is a big achievement," he said, adding that the kits are entirely domestically produced, which will "help cut our import bill."

So far, Pakistan has imported and received PPE and testing kits mostly from its Chinese allies.

"We are importing the kits from China at the moment but when the commercial production of our kits begins, we will not have to import," Chaudhry said, adding that the kits are low priced, which could bring the cost of virus tests to a one-third.

Chaudhry praised the efforts of experts at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) Islamabad who developed the testing kits, saying he is proud of them.

"The kits developed by our experts are better than the imported kits, and have over 90% accuracy," he said.

Pakistan, the second worst-hit in South Asia, has registered a total of 144,478 virus cases, including 2,729 deaths and 53,721 recoveries.

Many lawmakers, including two former prime ministers, an opposition leader, and several state ministers, have contracted the virus, forcing them to self-quarantine.

The World Health Organization has called on the government to implement “intermittent” lockdowns to counter a surge in infections after relaxing restrictions in recent weeks.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 4, 2020 at 9:07am

#Pakistan #trade deficit contracts 27% to $23.2 billion in FY20 from $31.8 billion in the preceding fiscal year, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said on Friday.: PBS - Profit by Pakistan Today https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/07/03/trade-deficit-contra...

Pakistan’s trade deficit narrowed by 27 per cent to $23.18 billion in the fiscal year 2019-20, as against the deficit of $31.8 billion in the preceding fiscal year, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said on Friday.

The country’s import bill declined significantly by 18.61pc to $44.57 billion during July–June 2019-20, as compared to $54.76 billion in the same period of the preceding year.

Exports from the country also fell by 6.84pc to $21.38 billion in the fiscal year 2019-20 as compared with $22.95 billion in the preceding fiscal year.

The fall in import bill and export receipts may be attributed to Covid-19, which adversely affected international trade. Moreover, declining oil prices also played a key role in reducing the import bill.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 7, 2020 at 7:43pm

South Korea’s Eximbank plans to finance Pakistan’s large-scale IT project. #Korea to offer a $76 million-plus loan to #Pakistan for IT-related projects including electronic intelligence. #tech #informationtechnology

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200707000143

South Korea’s state-run policy lender Export-Import Bank of Korea plans to offer a $76 million-plus loan to Pakistan for IT-related projects including electronic intelligence, a top official told The Korea Herald on Monday.

Eximbank established the Economic Development Cooperation Fund in 1987 to support industrialization and economic growth in developing countries as well as promote bilateral economic exchanges.

“The size of the loan and project is expected to be larger than the IT Park construction project in 2017,” said the official, who requested anonymity.

The project is aimed to support Pakistan’s small-and medium-sized IT firms and bolster technology cooperation between South Korea and the South Asian country.

“But there have been discussions about expanding IT cooperation between the two countries beyond infrastructure, which led to the project taking shape,” the official added.

The project is still in its early stages due to the coronavirus pandemic, the official stressed. Key details, such as the master plan and the exact size of the loan are yet to be discussed.

Eximbank is also planning to delay debt repayment of seven loans extended to Pakistan via EDCF that face maturity this year -- there are a total of 13 of such loans extended to the country so far.

This is in line with the government’s decision, announced in April, to provide more than $400 million to developing countries for virus-related programs and delay repayment of debt from 27 developing nations.

“The debt repayment issue is being discussed via the Paris Club,” the official explained, pointing to a group of major creditor nations who seek to find solutions for payment problems that debtor economies face.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 8, 2020 at 10:15am

#Pakistan #informationtechnology: IT, ITeS #exports surge 20.75% to $1.11bn in 11 months compared to $917.875 million during the same period in FY19. #technology - Profit by Pakistan Today https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/07/06/it-ites-export-remit...

Over the years, incentives from the government and various projects to enhance capacity and capability of the IT Industry have resulted in strong industry growth rates. Incentives to the industry include zero income tax on IT and ITeS exports till June 2025, tax breaks for PSEB registered IT start-ups for three years, up to 100 per cent foreign ownership of IT and ITeS companies, up to 100 per cent repatriation of profits for foreign IT and ITeS investors and tax holiday for venture capital funds till 2024.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 8, 2020 at 10:28am

#Pakistan leaves #India, #Bangladesh behind in terms of export-growth. Pak exporters were only 6% less than 2019-20, while Bangladesh was down 17% and India down by 14%. #exports #lockdown #COVID19 https://mettisglobal.news/pakistan-leaves-india-bangladesh-behind-i... via @Mettis Global News

Advisor for Commerce, Textile, Industry and Production, and Investment of Pakistan, Abdul Razak Dawood has appreciated exporters for showing good performance during the Fiscal Year 2019-2020 as compared to the regional counterparts.

Taking to his twitter handle on Tuesday, he wrote: ‘I want to congratulate all our exporters on the good performance in 2019-20, in spite of the very challenging situation caused by COVID-19. Our exporters were only 6% less than 2019-20, while our regional countries Bangladesh was down 17% and India down by 14%.

Earlier this month, Abdul Razzak had lauded the exporters for their contribution to Pakistan’s economic recovery, due to their continued momentum and expansion of exports with new products and more geographical diversification. ‘Overall declining trend in exports, due to COVID, has been arrested’, he had said.

‘The good performance was also due to the timely lifting of the lockdown and the good coordination between Federal and Provincial agencies at the daily meetings of NCOC. Out Exporters deserve every praise for their effort, hard work and reaching out to out customers’, he added.

Pakistan has indeed showed resilience throughout the year, especially during the first two quarters of FY20, as compared to the previous years. The fourth quarter depicted a drastic fall in exports, mainly due to the disturbance in business activity by the Coronavirus.

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