Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2026 at 9:52am

Manufacturing posts strongest growth in four years as inflation eases sharply
Foreign reserves, remittances rise while fiscal deficit narrows to 0.7 percent of GDP

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy expanded 3.7 percent and reached a record size of $452.1 billion in the outgoing fiscal year 2025-26, according to the Economic Survey released on Thursday, as the government highlighted gains in manufacturing, inflation and external-sector indicators ahead of the federal budget.

The Economic Survey is an annual government document that reviews the performance of key sectors in the outgoing fiscal year and is traditionally released a day before the federal budget. Pakistan’s federal budget for FY2026-27 is due to be presented on June 12.

The survey showed Pakistan’s GDP growth increased to 3.7 percent in FY26 from 3.2 percent in FY25 and 2.6 percent in FY24, while the size of the economy expanded to Rs126.9 trillion, equivalent to $452.1 billion, the largest recorded economic size in the country’s history. Per capita income rose to $1,901 from $1,751 a year earlier.

The survey attributed the improvement to stronger manufacturing activity, easing inflation and a more stable external position despite regional tensions, volatile energy prices and global economic uncertainty.

“If I were sitting with you in January or February, we had a very strong view that this year’s growth will exceed 4 percent. But as you all know, we were affected by the conflict in the Middle East,” Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told reporters while unveiling the survey in Islamabad, referring to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war.

“Having said that, we have reached the biggest economic volume in the history of the country, which has reached Rs126.9 trillion or $452.1 billion.”

One of the strongest contributors to growth was large-scale manufacturing, which expanded 6.1 percent during FY26, its highest growth rate in four years. According to the survey, 16 of 22 manufacturing sectors recorded positive growth, including food, textiles, automobiles, petroleum products and electrical equipment.

Average consumer inflation stood at 6.7 percent during the July-May period, compared with 4.5 percent in FY25 and 23.4 percent in FY24, according to the survey, which said price stability was largely maintained despite the impact of regional conflict on energy prices.

Pakistan’s external accounts also showed improvement. The current account deficit stood at $252 million during July-April, while foreign exchange reserves rose to $17.2 billion by May 29, up 49 percent from a year earlier.

Workers’ remittances reached $33.9 billion during July-May, up 9 percent year-on-year, while monthly inflows hit a record $4.3 billion in April, according to the survey.

The country’s trade deficit stood at $23.53 billion during July-March.

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https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/2065012155041370283?s=20


Sheheryar Butt
@PSX100
Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 – Key Highlights

📈 GDP Growth

Economic Growth: 3.7% (Target: 4.2%)
Agriculture Growth: 2.9%
Industrial Growth: 3.5%
Services Sector Growth: 4.1%

💰 Macroeconomic Indicators

Per Capita Income: US$ 1,901
Investment-to-GDP Ratio: 14.3%
Savings-to-GDP Ratio: 14.1%

🏭 Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Performance

Overall LSM Growth: 6.5% ▲

Major Performing Sectors

Food: 9.8% ▲
Coke & Petroleum Products: 10.9% ▲
Wearing Apparel: 6.6% ▲
Textile: 0.7% ▲
Mining & Quarrying: 0.4% ▲

Weak Performing Sectors

Chemicals: -1.4% ▼
Pharmaceuticals: -5.1% ▼
PSX Perspective

✅ Strong growth in LSM, Food, Petroleum Products, and Apparel is positive for related listed companies.

⚠️ Weak performance in Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals may keep investor sentiment cautious toward these sectors.

📊 Overall, the survey indicates a gradual economic recovery, though GDP growth remained below the government's target of 4.2%.

https://x.com/PSX100/status/2065020729436049561?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2026 at 9:52am

Manufacturing posts strongest growth in four years as inflation eases sharply
Foreign reserves, remittances rise while fiscal deficit narrows to 0.7 percent of GDP

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy expanded 3.7 percent and reached a record size of $452.1 billion in the outgoing fiscal year 2025-26, according to the Economic Survey released on Thursday, as the government highlighted gains in manufacturing, inflation and external-sector indicators ahead of the federal budget.

The Economic Survey is an annual government document that reviews the performance of key sectors in the outgoing fiscal year and is traditionally released a day before the federal budget. Pakistan’s federal budget for FY2026-27 is due to be presented on June 12.

The survey showed Pakistan’s GDP growth increased to 3.7 percent in FY26 from 3.2 percent in FY25 and 2.6 percent in FY24, while the size of the economy expanded to Rs126.9 trillion, equivalent to $452.1 billion, the largest recorded economic size in the country’s history. Per capita income rose to $1,901 from $1,751 a year earlier.

The survey attributed the improvement to stronger manufacturing activity, easing inflation and a more stable external position despite regional tensions, volatile energy prices and global economic uncertainty.

“If I were sitting with you in January or February, we had a very strong view that this year’s growth will exceed 4 percent. But as you all know, we were affected by the conflict in the Middle East,” Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told reporters while unveiling the survey in Islamabad, referring to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war.

“Having said that, we have reached the biggest economic volume in the history of the country, which has reached Rs126.9 trillion or $452.1 billion.”

One of the strongest contributors to growth was large-scale manufacturing, which expanded 6.1 percent during FY26, its highest growth rate in four years. According to the survey, 16 of 22 manufacturing sectors recorded positive growth, including food, textiles, automobiles, petroleum products and electrical equipment.

Average consumer inflation stood at 6.7 percent during the July-May period, compared with 4.5 percent in FY25 and 23.4 percent in FY24, according to the survey, which said price stability was largely maintained despite the impact of regional conflict on energy prices.

Pakistan’s external accounts also showed improvement. The current account deficit stood at $252 million during July-April, while foreign exchange reserves rose to $17.2 billion by May 29, up 49 percent from a year earlier.

Workers’ remittances reached $33.9 billion during July-May, up 9 percent year-on-year, while monthly inflows hit a record $4.3 billion in April, according to the survey.

The country’s trade deficit stood at $23.53 billion during July-March.

------------

https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/2065012155041370283?s=20


Sheheryar Butt
@PSX100
Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 – Key Highlights

📈 GDP Growth

Economic Growth: 3.7% (Target: 4.2%)
Agriculture Growth: 2.9%
Industrial Growth: 3.5%
Services Sector Growth: 4.1%

💰 Macroeconomic Indicators

Per Capita Income: US$ 1,901
Investment-to-GDP Ratio: 14.3%
Savings-to-GDP Ratio: 14.1%

🏭 Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Performance

Overall LSM Growth: 6.5% ▲

Major Performing Sectors

Food: 9.8% ▲
Coke & Petroleum Products: 10.9% ▲
Wearing Apparel: 6.6% ▲
Textile: 0.7% ▲
Mining & Quarrying: 0.4% ▲

Weak Performing Sectors

Chemicals: -1.4% ▼
Pharmaceuticals: -5.1% ▼
PSX Perspective

✅ Strong growth in LSM, Food, Petroleum Products, and Apparel is positive for related listed companies.

⚠️ Weak performance in Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals may keep investor sentiment cautious toward these sectors.

📊 Overall, the survey indicates a gradual economic recovery, though GDP growth remained below the government's target of 4.2%.

https://x.com/PSX100/status/2065020729436049561?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2026 at 9:57am

Does official gdp include undocumented economy in pakistan?

No, official GDP figures in Pakistan do not include the undocumented or informal economy. Official statistics only track registered, formal-sector transactions, meaning cash trades, barters, and unregistered small businesses are omitted from the primary Official Pakistan GDP tally.Key Facts About Pakistan's Undocumented Economy:Scale: The undocumented economy is massive. Estimates by the World Bank and International Labour Organization place its value at approximately $457 billion, which constitutes over 40% to 56% of the country's official, documented GDP.Employment: Up to 72% of the non-agricultural workforce and nearly three million businesses operate in the informal sector, sustaining massive consumer demand that goes untracked by the Federal Board of Revenue.True Economic Size: When informal and shadow-market wealth are factored in, some economists and independent researchers estimate Pakistan's true purchasing power and adjusted GDP could approach $800 to $900 billion.To understand the full scope of unrecorded economic activity, would you like to:Learn more about how institutions like the State Bank of Pakistan measure shadow wealth?Review government initiatives aiming to bring informal sectors into the official tax net?Explore how these unrecorded figures impact per-capita purchasing power metrics?

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2026 at 12:53pm

Does official gdp include undocumented economy in india?

Official GDP in India only partially includes the undocumented economy. While the government attempts to estimate the legal but unorganized informal sector (such as unregistered small businesses and street vendors) using surveys and proxy data, it excludes illegal activities (such as the black market, smuggling, and tax evasion).The treatment of these undocumented sectors breaks down as follows:The Informal Economy: The informal sector makes up a significant portion of India's overall economic activity. The government captures parts of this through supply-use tables and employment data. Because the informal sector is largely cash-based and difficult to track, India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation frequently updates its methodology. For instance, initiatives have focused on integrating digital payments and GST data into updated GDP series (e.g., using a base year of 2022-23) to better account for this activity.The Illegal/Black Economy: Outright illegal transactions (e.g., drug trafficking, bribery, and unregistered/prohibited trades) are entirely omitted from official GDP calculations, as standard gross domestic product accounting only measures legally produced goods and services.If you are interested, I can explain:How the International Labour Organization classifies informal laborWhat proxies the government uses to measure unregistered businessesHow much the informal sector is estimated to contribute to total output

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 15, 2026 at 10:35am

Pakistan on Friday invited Saudi investors to participate in the construction of the long-awaited Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway (M6) and two other major highway projects, as Islamabad sought to attract foreign capital into its expanding transport infrastructure sector.


https://www.dawn.com/news/2005550

Once completed, the motorway is expected to provide uninterrupted motorway connectivity from Karachi Port to Peshawar and onward to Gilgit.

The offer was extended by Federal Communications Minister Aleem Khan during a meeting with the Chairman of the Saudi-Pakistan Joint Business Council, Prince Mansour bin Muhammad Al Saud, who held high-level talks with the minister on promoting bilateral economic cooperation and investment.


According to the Ministry of Communications, Aleem Khan presented investment opportunities in three strategic road projects: the M6 Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway, the M10 Karachi Port and the M13 Kharian-Rawalpindi motorways. The minister described the projects as commercially attractive ventures with strong potential for long-term returns.


Karachi Port and M-6 among three key projects highlighted to attract foreign capital

The outreach comes as Pakistan accelerates efforts to develop its road infrastructure and secure private-sector participation in large-scale transport projects.

In April, the National Highway Authority (NHA) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) signed an agreement for the construction of two sections of the M6 Motorway, a project regarded as a critical component of the country’s north-south transport corridor.

Missing link

At the time, Mr Khan termed the agreement a significant milestone, saying the motorway project, which had remained unrealised for nearly three decades, was expected to move forward within two years. He described the M6 as the missing link in the Karachi-Sukkur corridor and a project of considerable economic importance.

The 306-kilometre, six-lane motorway will include 15 interchanges and 10 service areas. It is the only remaining missing segment in the motorway network connecting Karachi and Peshawar.

During Friday’s discussions, the minister formally invited the Saudi Business Council (SBC) to explore investment opportunities in Pakistan’s transport infrastructure, particularly in motorway development and related connectivity projects.

He said the proposed routes offered strong commercial prospects and could generate attractive returns for investors due to their strategic location and economic significance.

Business councils

The minister assured the Saudi delegation that investors would be offered commercially viable investment models and noted that the expansion of Pakistan’s road network was playing a key role in facilitating trade and economic activity across the region.

Both sides also reaffirmed the importance of strengthening economic cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia through institutional platforms such as the Saudi-Pakistan Business Council.

Prince Mansour expressed the SBC’s interest in examining partnership opportunities in the motorway schemes, saying the council was well positioned to collaborate in Pakistan’s communications and infrastructure sectors.

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