Comment by Riaz Haq on July 1, 2023 at 6:14pm

The Modi Decade by Shashi Tharoor - Project Syndicate

By Shashi Tharoor


The BJP’s belligerent Hindutva nationalism – which promotes a narrow interpretation of history and demonizes India’s minorities, particularly Muslims – can be likened to a toxin injected into the veins of Indian society.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/indian-modi-government...


Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government inaugurated a new parliament building in New Delhi. It was supposed to symbolize the vision of a “new India” that Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claim they have been realizing during nine years in power. But the building has proved highly controversial, with 20 opposition parties boycotting the inauguration ceremony – the latest manifestation of the seemingly irreparable breakdown in relations between the opposition and the government.


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Such initiatives are not perfect – toilets lack enough running water, women are unable to afford to refill gas cylinders, and electricity supplies are erratic. But they have undoubtedly improved the quality of rural life, especially in the poor states of the northern “Hindi Belt.”


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But these successes have been offset by far less admirable policies. The BJP’s belligerent Hindutva nationalism – which promotes a narrow interpretation of history and demonizes India’s minorities, particularly Muslims – can be likened to a toxin injected into the veins of Indian society.

With BJP leaders and their acolytes in the Hindutva “Parivar,” or “family” of associated organizations, regularly spouting inflammatory and divisive rhetoric, it should be no surprise that violence has surged. Muslims have faced lynching by so-called cow vigilantes, and some Christians have been subjected to vandalism and assault during the Christmas season.

Though Indian elections remain free and fair, anti-democratic trends have taken hold between votes. Dissent is framed as disloyalty, with criticism of government policies labeled “anti-national.” The tax agencies and financial police have been unleashed against opposition leaders and their supporters, and “bulldozer justice” has been dispensed mainly against Muslim protesters – whose homes and businesses are literally bulldozed – without due process.

Moreover, the autonomy of Indian institutions – from the Reserve Bank of India to the Election Commission – has been weakened. Even the judiciary has come under pressure. Parliament has been reduced to a bulletin board for government decisions.

The Modi government has also fallen far short on economic policy. Despite the progress in areas like transport infrastructure and technology diffusion, India has a long way to go on many fronts, particularly schooling, skills development, sanitation, and public health-care facilities.

Likewise, the benefits of economic growth have failed to reach the poor and lower-middle class. Unemployment is at record highs, and female labor-force participation is plummeting. Many small and micro-enterprises had to be permanently closed after the disastrous demonetization of 2016. Farmers are struggling to cope with falling incomes. Budgetary allocations for many essential welfare programs, including the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, have dwindled. Crony capitalism is rampant.

The Modi government’s response to the COVID-19 crisis also left much to be desired. Though Indians were eventually vaccinated, images of migrant workers trudging homeward during a nationwide lockdown still haunt the country. And while the government claims that less than 500,000 people died, the World Health Organization estimates that the real figure is ten times higher, raising questions about the reliability of official statistics.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 1, 2023 at 6:26pm

How US deals with ‘natural partner’ India could boost defence, tech cooperation amid China tensions | South China Morning Post

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3226171/how-us-deal...


ndia’s defence capabilities are set for a boost following a series of deals signed with the United States, in what experts say is also an indication of Washington’s desire to draw New Delhi closer to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The agreements, signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with US President Joe Biden in Washington last week, spanned everything from clean energy to medicines. Two on defence and technology stand out as they are likely to mark a departure from Delhi’s years of dependency on Russia for arms.
“I think the linchpin of the agreements is the defence framework to make India strong and augment its deterrent capabilities,” said Ashok Mehta, a retired lieutenant general in the Indian army and an independent defence analyst.
“Americans have been constantly suggesting that India wean itself of dependence on Russia for military equipment and therefore the current agreements are indicative of that.”

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In particular, a deal between US firm GE and India’s state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to co-produce GE-F414 jet engines is a high point as it envisages technology transfers in equipment currently available only to Russia, Britain and France.

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India also plans to purchase General Atomics’ MQ-9B High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) unmanned aerial vehicles, to aid its efforts patrolling maritime and land borders amid tensions with China ever since a border clashthree years ago.

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India contracted to buy 22 Apache helicopters and 15 Chinook helicopters from American manufacturer Boeing in September 2015 and had received both shipments by 2020. Delhi also signed a US$4.1 billion contract with Boeing for C-17 planes and away from the US, signed a deal with France and Dassault Aviation in 2016 to buy 36 Rafale fighter planes.
Analysts say the strategy reflects India’s desire to spread its bets rather than shift its dependency to the West, noting that the country has continued scooping up discounted Russian crude oil despite Western criticism and sanctions.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 1, 2023 at 6:32pm

How US deals with ‘natural partner’ India could boost defence, tech cooperation amid China tensions | South China Morning Post

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3226171/how-us-deal...


“The US is systematically creating a ring of alliances in an effort to contain China. The key strength of US versus China is its alliance network. India is a natural partner because of long ongoing tensions between India and China,” said Pushan Dutt, professor of economics at INSEAD.

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“China looms large in all calculations,” Dutt said, noting that the focus on defence and semiconductor technology in partnership with India were because these were “the two sectors that the US explicitly wants to stymie their development in China”.
Delhi embarked on a programme to shore up its manufacturing base including electronic goods three years ago, and offered financial incentives worth billions of dollars. It also launched a programme to build semiconductors to cut imports valued at around US$25 billion a year.

Sweeping technology alliances
Two US semiconductor companies said this week that they would invest in India. Micron Technology, maker of memory chips, said it would invest up to US$825 million in a chip assembly and test plant in Gujarat, while semiconductor toolmaker Applied Materials plans to invest some US$400 million in a new engineering centre in India.
Incentives from India’s federal and state governments “are likely to range from 70 per cent to 125 per cent of the investments in semiconductor manufacturing in India, which are likely to attract more investments into the country”, said Saurabh Agarwal, a tax partner at professional services firm EY.
The semiconductor industry has a complex value chain that can be roughly broken up into three major sections: design; fabrication; and assembly and testing. India is already a hub for the research and design of semiconductors, which require software capability, but lags in the two other areas.

The investments by the US firms could catalyse other companies to also make chips.
India currently meets all of its needs with imports from places such as Taiwan, but policymakers are keen to establish a semiconductor base in the country because chips power everything from mobile phones to sophisticated flight systems.
Modi’s visit deepened technological cooperation in other areas as well. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said after a meeting with Modi that his company was looking to invest in India “as soon as humanly possible”.
Musk has been trying to break into the Indian market since 2017, but the plan has been delayed by Tesla’s efforts to negotiate lower import duties – a proposal that has so far been rebuffed because officials want the company to make cars before discussing tax breaks.
“It is likely that they [Tesla] will come now. There is enough push for them,” said an industry executive, who did not want to be identified.

Other companies were already making inroads before Tesla’s expected entry. American firm International Battery Company has said it would invest in a lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt cell manufacturing plant in the southern Indian state of Karnataka.
Big tech firms have also warmed up, with Google CEO Sundar Pichai promising to invest US$10 billion in a digitisation fund for India to foster artificial intelligence company, while Amazon said recently that it will ramp up investment in the country to US$26 billion by 2030.
The moves have come on the heels of reports that Apple may move nearly one-fifth of its global iPhone production to India in the next two years. India currently has just 14 Apple vendors, compared with 151 in mainland China.
“The US government is keen on strengthening ties with India and encouraging companies such as Apple and GE to invest there is a key part of this strategy,” said David Bach, a professor of strategy and political economy at the International Institute for Management Development.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 3, 2023 at 9:56am

India’s tech blues in making jet engines, stealth submarines : The Tribune India

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/indias-tech-blues-in-maki...

It seems that there is an admission that India does not have the manufacturing and technological depth to fully indigenise defence production. The alternative seems to be to arrange for production in India on the basis of transfer of technology (ToT) from foreign companies. It has been argued that India has the skilled workforce to carry out the manufacturing processes of advanced technology and this will greatly bring down the costs because of the advantage of relatively lower labour cost in India. This makes good economic sense and there is not much to quarrel over it. It is estimated that India, over a period of time, will be able to absorb the technological advances and will be able to innovate on its own.

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India’s Mobile Phone Exports Driven by Assembly Rather Than Domestic Manufacturing: Raghuram Rajan

https://thewire.in/government/indias-mobile-phone-exports-driven-by...


“One key deficiency of the scheme is that the subsidy is paid only for finishing the phone in India, not on how much value is added by manufacturing in India,” he says.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 3, 2023 at 10:02am

The Russian Kommersant has it right when it says: "India has had little success with military equipment production, and has had problems producing Russian Su-30MKI fighter jets and T-90S tanks, English Hawk training jets and French Scorpene submarines."

And here's how blogger Vijainder Thakur sees India's loose meaning of "indigenous" Smerch and other imports:

The Russians will come here set up the plant for us and supply the critical manufacturing machinery. Indian labor and technical management will run the plant which will simply assemble the system. Critical components and the solid propellant rocket motor fuel will still come from Perm Powder Mill. However, bureaucrats in New Delhi and the nation as a whole will be happy. The Smerch system will be proudly paraded on Rajpath every republic day as an indigenous weapon system.

A decade or so down the line, Smerch will get outdated and India will negotiate a new deal with Russia for the license production of a new multiple rocket system for the Indian Army.

China will by then have developed its own follow up system besides having used the solid propellant motors to develop other weapon systems and assist its space research program.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 4, 2023 at 9:54am

Modi uses speech to Russia-China-led group to swipe at Pakistan, avoids mentioning Ukraine

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/vladi...

India’s prime minister on Tuesday took a veiled swipe at rival neighbor Pakistan and avoided mentioning the war in Ukraine while addressing a group of Asian countries led by China and Russia

India’s prime minister on Tuesday took a veiled swipe at rival neighbor Pakistan and avoided mentioning the war in Ukraine while addressing a group of Asian countries led by China and Russia.

In his opening speech to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the group should not hesitate to criticize countries that are "using terrorism as an instrument of its state policy."

"Terrorism poses a threat to regional peace and we need to take up a joint fight,” Modi said without naming Pakistan. India regularly accuses Pakistan of training and arming insurgent groups, a charge Islamabad denies.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Pakistan Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif are scheduled to address the day-long virtual summit.

Modi also warned of global challenges to food, fuel and fertilizer supplies. Trade in all three has been disrupted by Russia's 14-month-long war in Ukraine, but SCO members have largely avoided direct mention of the war.

Putin is participating in his first multilateral summit since an armed rebellion rattled Russia, at one of the few international grouping in which he enjoys warm relations with most members.

For Putin, the summit presents an opportunity to show he is in control after a short-lived insurrection by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a security grouping founded by Russia and China to counter Western alliances from East Asia to the Indian Ocean. The group includes the four Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, all former Soviet republics in which Russian influence runs deep. Pakistan became a member in 2017, and Iran, which is set to join on Tuesday. Belarus is also in line for membership.

The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a message to the summit that it was taking place amid growing global challenges and risks. "But at a time when the world needs to work together, divisions are growing, and geopolitical tensions are rising.”

"These differences have been aggravated by several factors: diverging approaches to global crises; contrasting views on nontraditional security threats; and, of course, the consequences of COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” he said.


This year’s event is hosted by India, which became a member in 2017. It’s the latest venue for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to showcase the country’s growing global clout.

Days after his return from a high-profile visit to the United States, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday had a telephone conversation with Putin about the recent developments in Russia, India’s External Affairs Ministry said.

Modi reiterated calls for dialogue and diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine, ministry spokesman Arindam Bagchi said.

India has avoided condemning Russia for its war on Ukraine and abstained from voting on U.N. resolutions against Russia.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 5, 2023 at 8:06am

India Will Pay 70% Of Cost But Micron Will Own 100% Of The Plant—A Curious Business Model| Countercurrents

https://countercurrents.org/2023/07/india-will-pay-70-of-cost-but-m...


What’s the big deal with Micron, top US electronic chip manufacturer?
1) India will bear 70% of project cost but Micron will own 100%.
2) Micron will only assemble parts made elsewhere — no tech transfer.
3) It’ll be in Gujarat — like everything else!

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 6, 2023 at 7:42am

The West needs to get real about India | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-west-needs-to-get-real-about-...

Excellent piece by John McCarthy, a former Australian High Commissioner to #India. Unfortunately, western leaders, academics and analysts, including in #Australia, simply don’t want to hear that India is a wobbly democracy and an uncertain potential military ally down the road.

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Lately, the West—particularly the United States—has been wooing India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the bling of a monied Indian wedding.

Last month, Modi was US President Joe Biden’s guest for a full state visit—of which there are usually only a couple year. Modi also addressed Congress for a second time. In so doing, he was among a chosen few—of whom Winston Churchill and Nelson Mandela have been the most notable.

Earlier, when in New Delhi in April, Biden’s commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo, included in a paean to Modi words such as ‘unbelievable’, ‘indescribable’ and ‘visionary’.

Kurt Campbell—the US National Security Council’s most senior figure on Asia—reportedly routinely describes the US–India relationship, without caveats, as America’s most important. This will be news to Japan, the UK and others.

Modi was a guest at the G7 meeting in Hiroshima in May. He then visited Australia. He has been invited by President Emmanuel Macron to be France’s guest for Bastille Day. The leaders of Italy, Germany and Australia—among others—have all visited India this year.

Since India became independent, Western dealings with India have had their fits and starts. However, the courtship gathered pace with the so-called nuclear deal concluded between the US and India in 2008, under which the Americans agreed to assist India’s civil nuclear development and to sell the deal internationally—despite the impediment that India was not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The deal was a turning point in the US–India security relationship and boosted India’s growing status as a major power. A stimulus for the deal was concern in both countries about the rise of China.

In the past few years, India’s attraction for the West has increased because of its size and wealth. It is now the most populous nation globally, and in purchasing power parity terms has the world’s third highest GDP. Its attraction has grown as concerns about China have multiplied.

That said, there are three reasons why the West might want to reflect on the ardour of its courtship of India.

The first is that India’s economic promise—particularly as an eventual rival to China—is overblown.

Doubts about the extent of India’s promise have been around for a couple of decades—in fact, ever since some commentators started suggesting that India would one day outstrip China.

These doubts were cogently expressed by Harvard academic Graham Allison in a recent essay in Foreign Policy. Allison, inter alia, suggested that we need to reflect on several ‘inconvenient truths’:

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 6, 2023 at 7:42am

The West needs to get real about India | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-west-needs-to-get-real-about-...

Excellent piece by John McCarthy, a former Australian High Commissioner to #India. Unfortunately, western leaders, academics and analysts, including in #Australia, simply don’t want to hear that India is a wobbly democracy and an uncertain potential military ally down the road.

----------

Lately, the West—particularly the United States—has been wooing India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the bling of a monied Indian wedding.

Last month, Modi was US President Joe Biden’s guest for a full state visit—of which there are usually only a couple year. Modi also addressed Congress for a second time. In so doing, he was among a chosen few—of whom Winston Churchill and Nelson Mandela have been the most notable.

Earlier, when in New Delhi in April, Biden’s commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo, included in a paean to Modi words such as ‘unbelievable’, ‘indescribable’ and ‘visionary’.

Kurt Campbell—the US National Security Council’s most senior figure on Asia—reportedly routinely describes the US–India relationship, without caveats, as America’s most important. This will be news to Japan, the UK and others.

Modi was a guest at the G7 meeting in Hiroshima in May. He then visited Australia. He has been invited by President Emmanuel Macron to be France’s guest for Bastille Day. The leaders of Italy, Germany and Australia—among others—have all visited India this year.

Since India became independent, Western dealings with India have had their fits and starts. However, the courtship gathered pace with the so-called nuclear deal concluded between the US and India in 2008, under which the Americans agreed to assist India’s civil nuclear development and to sell the deal internationally—despite the impediment that India was not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The deal was a turning point in the US–India security relationship and boosted India’s growing status as a major power. A stimulus for the deal was concern in both countries about the rise of China.

In the past few years, India’s attraction for the West has increased because of its size and wealth. It is now the most populous nation globally, and in purchasing power parity terms has the world’s third highest GDP. Its attraction has grown as concerns about China have multiplied.

That said, there are three reasons why the West might want to reflect on the ardour of its courtship of India.

The first is that India’s economic promise—particularly as an eventual rival to China—is overblown.

Doubts about the extent of India’s promise have been around for a couple of decades—in fact, ever since some commentators started suggesting that India would one day outstrip China.

These doubts were cogently expressed by Harvard academic Graham Allison in a recent essay in Foreign Policy. Allison, inter alia, suggested that we need to reflect on several ‘inconvenient truths’:

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 6, 2023 at 7:43am

The West needs to get real about India | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-west-needs-to-get-real-about-...

These doubts were cogently expressed by Harvard academic Graham Allison in a recent essay in Foreign Policy. Allison, inter alia, suggested that we need to reflect on several ‘inconvenient truths’:

We have been wrong in the past about the pace of the rise of India—namely in the early 1990s and the middle of the first decade of this century.
India’s economy is much smaller than China’s—and the gap has increased, not decreased. In the early 2000s, China’s GDP was two to three times as large as India’s. It is now roughly five times as large.
India has been falling behind in the development of science and technology to power economic growth. China spends 2% of GDP on research and development, compared with India’s 0.7%. On artificial intelligence, the figures are startling. For example, China holds 65% of AI patents, while India holds just 3%.
China’s workforce is more productive than India’s. The quality of their respective workforces is affected by poverty and nutrition levels. As one example, according to the 2022 UN State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report, 16.3% of India’s population was undernourished in 2019–2021 compared with less than 2.5% of China’s population.
The second argument is that India’s worldview is quite different to that of most Western countries.

India rightly sees itself as a force in international affairs. It aspires to be a powerful pole in a multipolar world. It adheres to a doctrine of strategic autonomy. It is guided by what it thinks is best for India, not by alliances or what others want of it.

India’s China-driven strategic congruence with the US is not the same as a quasi-alliance relationship. India doesn’t operate within a framework of mutual obligation. It doesn’t expect others to come to its aid and it won’t join someone else’s war.

In a recent Foreign Affairs article entitled ‘America’s bad bet on India’, an American academic of Indian origin, Ashley Tellis, argues that New Delhi would never involve itself in any US confrontation with China that did not threaten its own security.

The Tellis piece has weight because he was a main intellectual force behind the ‘nuclear deal’ concluded in 2008.

Moreover, India will differ radically from the West on some questions. True, as the Ukraine war has progressed, India has put some daylight between itself and Russia. But it declines to impose sanctions on Moscow. Both countries benefit from Russia’s sales of oil to India.

And never a proponent of the Western-inspired liberal international order, India is also a leader of the disparate—but re-energised—global south, effectively the developing world.

The third argument is that the west’s line that its relationship with India is based on shared democratic values does not hold up.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said he saw the long-term trajectory of the US-India relationship as being ‘built on the notion that democracies with shared value systems should be able to work together both to nurture their own democracies internally and to fight for shared values globally’. Come off it, Mr Sullivan!

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