Comment by Riaz Haq on August 31, 2023 at 5:10pm

U.S. Space Aid to India: On a "Glide Path" to ICBM Trouble?


https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006-03/features/us-space-aid-india....


President John F. Kennedy was once asked the difference between the Atlas space launch vehicle that put John Glenn into orbit and an Atlas missile aimed at the Soviet Union. He answered with a one-word pun: “Attitude.” The established path to a space launch capability for China, France, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States was to adapt a ballistic missile as a space launch vehicle.

India turned the process around, adapt ing a space launch vehicle as a ballistic missile. In the 1980s, India adapted a space launch vehicle, the SLV-3, to become the Agni medium-range ballistic missile. In keeping with India’s practice of describing nuclear and missile programs as civilian until their military character cannot be denied, India originally claimed that the Agni was a “technology demonstrator.” The Agni program now consists of three missiles with ranges, respectively, of approximately 700, 2,000, and 3,000 kilometers.

For nearly two decades, reports have indicated that India sought to use a simi lar tactic to develop an ICBM.[3] It appears, though, that India may have officially begun the ICBM project (commonly known as the Surya, although sometimes also known as Agni IV) in 1994.[4] Reports cite various dates, perhaps because the project has had several decision points.

Reports generally agree that the Surya program will result in several different missiles with ranges from 5,000 to 20,000 kilo meters.[5] It is widely claimed that the Surya will have the option of a nuclear payload, and sometimes the claim is made that the payload will consist of multiple nuclear warheads.

Reports also generally agree that the Surya will be a three-stage missile with the first two stages derived from the PSLV’s solid-fuel rockets. India obtained the solid-fuel tech nology for the SLV-3 and the PSLV from the United States in the 1960s.[6] India is said to be planning for the third Surya stage to use liquid fuel and to be derived either from the Viking rocket technology supplied by France in the 1980s (called Vikas when India manu factured PSLV stages with the technology) or from a more powerful, Russian-supplied cryogenic upper stage for the Geosynchro nous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), which is an adaptation of the PSLV.
If the Surya uses PSLV rocket motors, as is most frequently reported, it will be an enor mous rocket with solid-fuel stages 2.8 me ters (about nine feet) in diameter and a total weight of up to 275 metric tons. This would make it by far the largest ICBM in the world, with a launch weight about three times that of the largest U.S. or Russian ICBMs.

There appears to be no literature on Indian plans to harden or conceal the Surya launch site, which would be difficult to do because of the missile’s size and weight. If a cryogenic third stage is used, the launch process will be lengthy. This means that the Surya is likely to be vulnerable to at tack before launch, making it a first-strike weapon that could not survive in a conflict. Indeed, the Surya’s threatening nature and its pre-launch vulnerability would make it a classic candidate for pre-emptive attack in a crisis. In strategic theory, this leads to “crisis instability,” the increased incentive for a crisis to lead to strategic attacks because of each side’s premium on striking first.

The one report of a mobile ICBM based on a combination of PSLV and Agni technology makes more military sense.[7] Yet, as described below, it entails other serious concerns.
Why would India want the Surya? Its reported ranges suggest the answer.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 31, 2023 at 5:15pm

The Rehbar series of rockets were launched into the upper atmosphere by Pakistan's Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO). 

 The first rocket in the series, Rehbar-I, was launched on June 7, 1962. 

 This was a unique achievement that even surprised NASA's specialists. 

 Pakistan was the first country in the developing world to launch a rocket. 

 They were the third country in Asia to launch a rocket, after Japan and Israel. 

The Rehbar rocket series was an experimental program that played an important role in Pakistan's development of a missile program. Pakistan's first satellite, Badr-A, was launched on July 16, 1990. 

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 31, 2023 at 5:27pm

The Shaheen-III is a medium-range ballistic missile with a maximum flight altitude of 692 kilometers. It can strike targets up to 2,750 kilometers away.

https://delhidefencereview.com/2022/06/08/pakistans-quest-for-balli....

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The Kármán line is the boundary between Earth's atmosphere and outer space. It's located at an altitude of 62 miles (100 kilometers) above sea level. The Kármán line is the point where conventional aircraft can't fly.
The international community, including the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI), considers space to begin at the Kármán line. NASA and the U.S. military consider space to begin at an altitude of 50 miles (around 80 kilometers).
Space is also defined as the lowest altitude at which satellites can maintain orbits for a reasonable time. This altitude is approximately 160 kilometers (100 miles) above the surface.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 1, 2023 at 8:37am

India Made It to the Moon. That Doesn’t Make It a Top #Industrial Power. #Chandrayaan3Landing will not move big roadblocks on #India’s path to becoming a top industrial power. #Modi's “Make in India” hasn’t done much. #MakeInIndia #manufacturing #BJP
https://www.barrons.com/articles/india-moon-landing-industrial-powe...

India took a giant leap into the ranks of advanced industrial nations when its Chandrayaan-3 unmanned spacecraft landed near the moon’s south pole on Aug. 23. At least to hear Prime Minister Narendra Modi tell it. “Science and technology are the foundations of a bright future for our nation,” the 72-year-old Modi, who is favored to win a third term next year, told ecstatic staff at the Indian Space Research Organization, or ISRO.
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Manufacturing’s share of gross domestic product is stuck at about 18%, according to S&P Global. That compares with 28% for China.

Modi’s (not very realistic) target is 25% by 2025. One big obstacle is policy-related: His government remains keen on import tariffs, some of which hit inputs needed to raise exports. “The Indian government has consistently raised tariff and nontariff barriers to protect domestic suppliers across most sectors,” the United States Trade Representative wrote in a recent report.

Another is a lag in transport infrastructure. Indian ports can’t accommodate the biggest container ships, so freight has to be transshipped through Singapore or Hong Kong. “To become the global manufacturing destination of choice, India will need massive upgrades in rail, port, and freight corridors,” write S&P researchers. That won’t happen by gazing at the moon.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 1, 2023 at 11:04am

Pakistan's first private space company, The Rocket & Satellite Company (TRSC), announced that they will launch their first space launch vehicle on August 14, 2025.

https://spacewatch.global/2020/08/the-rocket-and-satellite-company-...(TRSC,Ullah%20Khan%20in%20Karachi%2C%20Pakistan.

The Rocket & Satellite Company (TRSC), Pakistan’s first private Space Company, announced that they will put their first Space Launch Vehicle into orbit on the 14th August, 2025 from Pakistan. TRSC is a private Commercial Space Company, founded by Sami Ullah Khan in Karachi, Pakistan. It will provide advanced and innovative services, solutions and products for the global Space-tech based market, supporting demanding and challenging missions in orbit and beyond.

According to Sami Ullah Khan, CEO of TRSC, “Our vision is to make life of Space companies easy to offer one solutions under one roof, such as services, solutions and products in Ground Segment, Satellites and Payload Launching domain, … great Space tech services, solutions and products at [an] affordable price for Space companies.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 2, 2023 at 7:13pm

Pakistan successfully test launches indigenously developed rocket system

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-successf...

Pakistan on Tuesday successfully test launched a indigenously developed guided multi-launch rocket system, Fatah-1, capable of precisely delivering conventional warheads deep into "enemy territory."

"The weapon system will give Pakistan Army the capability of precision target engagement deep in enemy territory,"

The Army said the rocket is capable of delivering conventional warheads.

No further details were shared about the rocket system.

President of Pakistan Arif Alvi, Prime Minister Imran Khan, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Nadeem Raza, and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa congratulated the troops and scientists on the successful conduct of flight test.

This was the second flight of Fatah-1, after its first launch in January. At the time, Director General of Pakistan Army, Media Wing, Major General Babar Iftikhar, said Fatah-1 weapon system can hit targets up to a range of 140 km.

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