Trump's China Tariffs Helping Pakistani Garments Exports to America

Pakistan's garments exports to the United States have jumped 12% in first quarter of 2019 from the same period a year ago, according to USITC Dataweb.  This double digit exports growth is being partly attributed to US President Donald's Trump ongoing trade war with China with the US government imposing 10% to 25% tariffs on certain Chinese goods. Pakistani rupee devaluation has also contributed to the nation's overall competitiveness.

Textile Exports to United States. Source: Bloomberg

American buyers are diversifying their supplier base away from China, the No. 1 exporter of these goods to the U.S. Already, Bangladesh is close to snatching the trousers-to-towel crown, according to Bloomberg News. Pakistan, at No. 6 last year, has grown its own shipments to the U.S. by almost 12% this year. It may overtake India, which has seen virtually no improvement.

Pakistan's Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). Source:  Bloomberg

Pakistani apparel exports are becoming more competitive in international markets because Pakistani rupee has declined by almost 25% recently. This has wiped out the currency’s overvaluation adjusted for inflation differences with trading partners, as estimated by the IMF.

Textiles industry is just one the export industries seeing exodus of manufactures and buyers from China.  Electronics industry is seeing similar moves. Engadget is reporting that Google is moving production of its US-bound Nest thermostats and motherboards to Taiwan. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Nintendo is shifting at least some production of its Switch console to Southeast Asia.

Last November, Nomura Securities strategists had said they expected Malaysia, Japan and Pakistan  to be the top 3 beneficiaries of import substitution triggered by US-China trade war escalation. Nomura's analysis is based on detailed study of 7,705 items which will be subject to tariffs and counter tariffs by US and China if the stand-off continues. Nomura developed two indices as part of its research on the subject: NISI (Nomura Import Substitution Index) and NPRI (Nomura Production Relocation Index).

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Comment by Riaz Haq on July 31, 2019 at 10:12am

President Donald #Trump has indicated that #UnitedStates wants to increase its #trade with #Pakistan by at least four-fold following a meeting with #ImranKhan. Trump’s Pakistan Trade Aims May Need Levi, JC Penney Sourcing Strategy Help. #Garments #Textiles https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/resear...

President Donald Trump has indicated that the U.S. wants to increase its trade with Pakistan by at least four-fold following a meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan, Inside Trade reports. No firm policies or trade deal process has been put in place yet, though the ongoing need to secure Pakistan as a regional trade partner may give some incentive to do so ahead of the 2020 elections.

While the Trump administration will doubtless focus on increasing U.S. exports, Pakistan needs a significant boost to its export economy before it is in a position to increase its purchases significantly. Panjiva analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that its exports contracted by 0.2% year over year in the 12 months to May 31, following a 0.9% annual decline in the prior three years to reach $23.1 billion.

The U.S. accounted for 16.6% of the total, and managed to increase by 5.8% year over year in the past 12 months, Panjiva data shows. The need for a trade deal, and closer relations, with the U.S. has also become more important since India’s decision to increase tariffs on Pakistani exports as outlined in Panjiva’s research of February 18.

The major challenge in boosting imports from Pakistan will lie in either diversifying its exports to the U.S., or significantly eating into the market share of other countries supplying the U.S. In aggregate the apparel and textile industries accounted for 37.8% and 35.1% respectively of all U.S. imports from Pakistan in the 12 months to May 31.

Given Pakistan accounted for just 1.7% of U.S. apparel imports and 8.4% of textiles there may well be room for increased market share.
From a developmental perspective it’s worth noting that shipments aside from textiles and apparel have actually fallen as a proportion of the total to 27.1% in the past 12 months compared to 38.9% in 1998. Other major import lines include cotton at 3.3%, optical equipment at 2.8% and plastics which accounted for 2.6%.

The largest importer of apparel and textiles from Pakistan in the past 12 months, aside from trade finance houses, has been Levi Strauss with 1,682 TEUs shipped. That followed a 101.5% year over year surge in shipments in 2Q. Other importers have also already been expanding their shipments. That was followed by JC Penney with 991 TEUs shipped after a 13.3% rise in 2Q while Adidas shipped 641 TEUs and grew by 9.9%.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 31, 2019 at 10:14am

WASHINGTON: The United States and Pakistan can further enhance bilateral trade if strategic ties between the two countries continue to improve, said a White House factsheet released on Tuesday.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1497206

The factsheet “Working toward Peace and Stability: Building Economic Prosperity” notes that the United States and Pakistan enjoy a strong economic partnership that benefits both countries.

The official document points out that Pakistan and the US traded $6.6 billion worth of goods last year, setting a new record of bilateral trade.

While the document recognises Pakistan’s role in the Afghan peace process, US officials recently also urged Islamabad to encourage transit trade between India and Afghanistan, noting that it would benefit all by enhancing trade between South and Central Asian regions.

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD
President Donald Trump also expressed his desire to increase trade with Pakistan when asked at his July 22 news briefing what his administration was willing to do to help boost the Pakistani economy.

“Yes, I see great trade with Pakistan. And I’m not talking about a little bit more. I’m talking about — we could go 10 and even 20 times what we’re doing right now,” he said.

“You know, Pakistan is a big country. It’s actually a very big country, and they have tremendous product. They make great product,” he added.

“I’ve bought from Pakistan over the years when I was in the private sector. They make incredible product. They’re brilliant people. They’re hard-working people.”

He said that he believed the US and Pakistan could “have a fantastic trade relationship. I don’t mean we’ll increase it by 20 per cent. I mean, I think we can quadruple it. I think it could go — I mean, literally, it sounds crazy — you could go 10 times more. You could go 20 times more.”

He said he believed in multiplying trade with Pakistan because he felt “what we do right now is not much, and we should do a lot.”

Trump’s statement and the White House factsheet endorse Islamabad’s claim that Prime Minister Imran Khan’s US visit was a success, although it also highlights the key issues that need to be resolved to further enhance this relationship.

The document notes that Pakistan also purchased extensive amounts of American liquefied natural gas during the same period, about 22.8 billion cubic feet.

ExxonMobil re-established its presence in Pakistan in 2018 after 27 years and is working to increase LNG imports.

It lays greater emphasis on economic relations than did recent statements by US officials, who focused more on Pakistan’s cooperation in restoring peace to Afghanistan.

American energy producers are seeing more and more business opportunities with Pakistan and American companies are incorporating cutting-edge technologies into energy projects throughout Pakistan, the document adds.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 31, 2019 at 10:15am

U.S.-Pakistan Trade Facts

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/pakistan

In 2018, Pakistan GDP was an estimated $312.6 billion (current market exchange rates); real GDP was up by an estimated 5.2%; and the population was 201 million. (Source: IMF)

Pakistan is currently our 56th largest goods trading partner with $6.6 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2018. Goods exports totaled $2.9 billion; goods imports totaled $3.7 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Pakistan was $783 million in 2018.

According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. exports of goods to Pakistan supported an estimated 10 thousand jobs in 2015 (latest data available).

Exports

Pakistan was the United States' 55th largest goods export market in 2018.

U.S. goods exports to Pakistan in 2018 were $2.9 billion, up 4.3% ($121 million) from 2017 and up 54.3% from 2008. 

The top export categories (2-digit HS) in 2018 were: miscellaneous grain, seeds, fruit (oybeans) ($694 million), cotton ($615 million), iron and steel ($225 million), machinery ($211 million), and optical and medical instruments ($117 million).

U.S. total exports of agricultural products to Pakistan totaled $1.5 billion in 2018, our 19th largest agricultural export market. Leading domestic export categories include: soybeans ($689 million), cotton ($615 million), tree nuts ($49 million), dairy products ($38 million), and planting seeds ($37 million).
Imports

Pakistan was the United States' 58th largest supplier of goods imports in 2018.

U.S. goods imports from Pakistan totaled $3.7 billion in 2018, up 3.9% ($138 million) from 2017, and up 3.4% from 2008. 

The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2018 were: miscellaneous textile articles ($1.3 billion), knit apparel ($809 million), woven apparel ($586 million), leather products ($121 million), and cotton ($112 million).

U.S. total imports of agricultural products from Pakistan totaled $126 million in 2018. Leading categories include: rice ($31 million), sugars, sweeteners, bev bases ($30 million), spices ($19 million), processed fruit & vegetables ($9 million), and snack foods ($7 million).
Trade Balance

The U.S. goods trade deficit with Pakistan was $783 million in 2018, a 2.2% increase ($17 million) over 2017.
Investment

U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan (stock) was $518 million in 2017, a 25.7% increase from 2016. There is no information on the distribution of U.S. FDI in Pakistan.

Pakistan's FDI in the United States (stock) was $224 million in 2017. There is no information on the distribution of Pakistan FDI in the U.S.
NOTE: No services trade data with Pakistan are available.NOTE: No services trade data with Pakistan are available.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2019 at 1:33pm

#Pakistan exported $1,156 million worth of readymade #garments (#RMG) in five months, showing an increase of 36% in quantity and 13.19% in value. #exports
https://www.brecorder.com/2019/12/21/555315/pakistan-exports-increa...

Pakistan exports increase by 4.8pc in five months: Finance advisor
By Ali Ahmed on December 21, 2019
Sheikh said that from July-Nov 2019, exports increased by 4.8pc as compared to same period last year.
Value added exports like readymade garments, knitwear and other major exports are showing strong pick up in both quantity & value, he said.

Adviser to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on Finance and Revenue Abdul Hafeez Sheikh said that strong export growth is essential for the industrial expansion and job creation in an economy, as Pakistan posted 4.8pc export growth.

In a tweet, the advisor said that in five months (July-Nov 2019) exports increased by 4.8 percent as compared to same period last year. “Value added exports like readymade garments, knitwear & other major exports are showing strong pick up in both quantity & value," he said.

As per the data of Major Exports of Pakistan in 2019-20 (July-November) shared by Hafeez, knitwear items worth $1,320 million were exported in the five months, showing a quantity increase of 6 percent and value increase of 8.69pc.

Whereas, Pakistan exported $1,156mn worth of readymade garments in five months, showing an increase of 36pc in quantity and 13.19pc in value. Meanwhile bedwear was third on the list with $1.013bn worth of exports, an increase of 14.37pc in quantity and 4.69pc in value.

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