PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network
The Global Social Network
Will Gwadar Grow to Become a Major Metropolis Like Shenzhen?
"We believe Gwadar is following in the footsteps of Shenzhen which represented a historic population rise, from a population of 30,000 in 1980 to 11 million people in 2017. Gwadar is poised to see massive population growth due to incoming industries, and we expect this to be one of the most strategic cities in South Asia." Hao-Yeh Chang, China Pak Investments Corporation
Gwadar: The Next Shenzhen?
Gwadar is booming. It's being called the next Shenzhen by some and the next Hong Kong by others as an emerging new port city in the region to rival Dubai. Land prices in Gwadar are skyrocketing, according to media reports. Gwadar Airport air traffic growth of 73% was the fastest of all airports in Pakistan where overall air traffic grew by 23% last year, according to Anna Aero publication. A new international airport is now being built in Gwadar to handle soaring passenger and cargo traffic.
|
Recent Aerial View of Gwadar Hammerhead Growth |
Gwadar Property Boom:
The volume of Gwadar property searches surged 14-fold on Pakistan’s largest real estate database, Zameen.com, between 2014 and 2016, up from a prior rate of a few hundred a month. “It’s like a gold rush,” said Chief Executive Zeeshan Ali Khan to an Express Tribune newspaper reporter. “Anyone who is interested in real estate, be it an investor or a developer, is eyeing Gwadar.”
Chinese private investment company China Pak Investment Corporation has recently announced it is acquiring 3.6 million square foot International Port City project in Gwadar. It plans to develop a $150 million gated community to handle the influx of 500,000 Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2022.
 |
| Proposed Gwadar International Airport |
China Pak Investment Announcement:
On October 20, 2017, Pakistan's Geo TV news reported that China Pak Investment Company plans to increase its commitment to invest $500 million in Gwadar in the first phase of a project aimed at building homes for around 500,000 incoming Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2023. An earlier September 29, 2017 press release by China Pak Investment Corporation said as follows:
"The final master plan for China Pak Hills is currently being refined in Hong Kong, and will feature a range of state-of-the-art amenities including an open-air shopping boulevard; indoor shopping mall; restaurants and eateries; an international school and nursery; six community parks; indoor and outdoor sports facilities including tennis courts and a resident's gymnasium; a water desalination plant and recycling centre. China Pak Hills will also be home to the Gwadar Financial District, catering to the growing financial sector and adding much needed A Grade office space to Gwadar's growing market."
Gwadar Port Development:
Gwadar port's planned capacity when it is completed will be 300 to 400 million tons of cargo annually. It is comparable to the capacity of all of India's ports combined annual capacity of 500 million tons of cargo today. It is far larger than the 10-12 million tons cargo handling capacity planned for Chabahar.
To put Gwadar's scale in perspective, let's compare it with the largest US port of Long Beach which handles 80 million tons of cargo, about a quarter of what Gwadar will handle upon completion of the project. Gawadar port will be capable of handling the world's largest container ships and massive oil tankers.
Gawadar port is being built in Pakistan by the Chinese as part of the ambitious $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will eventually serve as Hong Kong West for growing Chinese trade with the Middle East and Europe. CPEC will also enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan to trade with Central Asia through China across China's borders with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
India's Strong Opposition:
Pakistan suspects that India's real objective in Afghanistan and Iran is to locate its intelligence agents under the cover of Chabahar port construction workers to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and support Baloch insurgency to destabilize Pakistan. These suspicions were strengthened when Indian spy Kulbhushan Yadav, operating under the fake name Husain Mubarak Patel, was arrested in Balochistan in March, 2016. Yadav confessed he was operating as an undercover RAW agent from his base in Chabahar, Iran. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made no secret of his strong opposition to CPEC and his support for Baloch insurgents.
Chinese Commitment to Pakistan:
Unlike US-Pakistan ties that have been essentially of a transactional nature, Pakistan-China relationship appears to truly strategic. A recent book "The China Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics" by American policy analyst Andrew Small quotes a top Chinese official as saying to his American counterparts that "Pakistan is China's Israel". Earlier, in 2011, some news reports quoted Chinese officials as warning that "any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China". Growing Chinese investment commitments in Pakistan now exceed $100 billion, a further indication of the importance China attaches to Pakistan as one of its closest allies.
Summary:
China-Pakistan ties appear to be truly strategic. The strength of Chinese commitment to Pakistan is increasing with growing investments in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor related projects. It is now highly visible in terms of the influx of the Chinese money and citizens into Pakistan. China's actions on the ground reinforce the credibility of Chinese officials' reported quotes describing Pakistan as "China's Israel" and warnings to the United States that "any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China".
Related Links:
Views: 1015
-
Comment by Riaz Haq on August 21, 2023 at 10:43am
-
Why fears of a Chinese naval base at Pakistan’s Gwadar port are overblown
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231705/why-fears-chin...
Intelligence gathering by Chinese entities or navy personnel at such facilities is hardly new. US Navy Lieutenant Commander Joseph McGinnis’ research highlighted the Karachi and Jinnah naval bases as primary choices for the Chinese navy due to their “superior repair, logistics, and military facilities”. If China were to use Pakistan-based facilities for overseas operations, these two bases would be prioritised.
Besides, Pakistan hosts most of its naval assets – much of them Chinese-supplied – at the Karachi and Jinnah bases. Chinese technicians have been present at the former for years and are likely to be at the latter too, given the relocation of strategic assets there since 2011.
Beijing would probably have been gathering intel on US naval activities in the Persian Gulf through its assets and personnel at these bases. If the US had reservations, it would have exercised its leverage over Pakistan to address them.
Additionally, such surveillance is hardly unique. Chinese firms operating ports in over 50 countries similarly monitor naval operations, according to Isaac B. Kardon and Wendy Leutert in their 2022 International Security article, “Pier competitor: China’s power position in global ports”.
Pakistan is likely to accept this trade-off in return for Chinese naval transfers, given the constraints on obtaining military equipment from the US and Europe. Islamabad aims to increase its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities not only against India but against terrorists, who have previously targeted Pakistan’s naval strategic assets.
The Pakistani cabinet’s recent nod towards renewing the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement with the US after its 2020 expiration indicates Islamabad’s interest in US military tech integrated with ISR features. If China offers similar tech, it might understandably want access for regional data collection.
Yet, this is vastly different from the Chinese navy deploying surveillance ships directly on the Pakistani coast. Currently, the Chinese navy primarily utilises its Djibouti base for noncombat and anti-piracy missions near the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, up to North Africa. Having a foothold in Pakistan’s southwestern shores would significantly aid operations extending to the Persian Gulf.
-
-
Why fears of a Chinese naval base at Pakistan’s Gwadar port are overblown
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231705/why-fears-chin...
Islamabad has previously allowed port calls by the Chinese navy, including submarine visits. Pakistan’s chief of naval staff recently indicated an openness to more such visits, including from Chinese aircraft carriers.
Still, the primary role of the temporary deployment of Chinese navy personnel and warships on these bases has been to offer training to Pakistani navy officers and improve interoperability on Pakistan’s warships of Chinese origin. To date, the Chinese navy hasn’t established a consistent naval presence on Pakistani bases.
Pakistan would be wise to avoid granting the Chinese navy access to its bases for contingency operations, as this could one day translate into regional military actions or coercive diplomacy.
Instead, Islamabad seems to be leveraging the possibility of such port calls to secure support from the US. For example, the US has approved a US$450 million F-16 sustainment sale and supported an International Monetary Fund loan package.
There are two scenarios in which Pakistan might allow permanent Chinese navy deployments at its bases.
One, Washington’s support for Islamabad diminishes and punitive actions against Pakistan increase, coupled with amplified backing for India’s defence capabilities and potential military campaigns against Pakistan. In other words, unless Pakistan anticipates an irreversible breakdown in its strategic relationship with the US, it would be reluctant to permit a permanent Chinese naval presence.
Two, if China supersedes the US in economic, military and diplomatic dominance, and Pakistan secures guarantees from Beijing, then Pakistan’s expectation of US benefits or penalties may diminish, enabling more latitude in its decisions.
Riaz Khokhar is a research analyst on geopolitics and security of the Indo-Pacific region and a former Asia studies visiting fellow at East-West Center in Washington
Comment
- ‹ Previous
- 1
- …
- 3
- 4
- 5
- Next ›
Twitter Feed
Live Traffic Feed
Sponsored Links
South Asia Investor Review
Investor Information Blog
Haq's Musings
Riaz Haq's Current Affairs Blog
Please Bookmark This Page!
Blog Posts
Pakistanis' Insatiable Appetite For Smartphones
Samsung is seeing strong demand for its locally assembled Galaxy S24 smartphones and tablets in Pakistan, according to Bloomberg. The company said it is struggling to meet demand. Pakistan’s mobile phone industry produced 21 million handsets while its smartphone imports surged over 100% in the last fiscal year, according to …
ContinuePosted by Riaz Haq on April 26, 2024 at 7:09pm
Pakistani Student Enrollment in US Universities Hits All Time High
Pakistani student enrollment in America's institutions of higher learning rose 16% last year, outpacing the record 12% growth in the number of international students hosted by the country. This puts Pakistan among eight sources in the top 20 countries with the largest increases in US enrollment. India saw the biggest increase at 35%, followed by Ghana 32%, Bangladesh and…
ContinuePosted by Riaz Haq on April 1, 2024 at 5:00pm
© 2024 Created by Riaz Haq.
Powered by
You need to be a member of PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network to add comments!
Join PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network