Construction Boom to Boost Pakistan Economy

Domestic cement sales are up 9% year-over-year for the first 7 months of Pakistan's Fiscal 2014-15, according to media reports.  Overall, cement industry reports cement shipment of over 20 million tons in 7 months, a 6% annual increase with rising domestic demand offsetting falling exports due to weakness abroad.

Market capitalization of  Pakistani cement companies has jumped 70% last year, about 3 times more than the KSE-100 market index which rose 27% in 2014. This is the third consecutive year that cement companies have outperformed the broader market. Investors in Pakistan's cement sector have seen 600% rise in the last three years.

It appears that construction  sector is getting a boost from falling inflation and declining interest rates with a big drop in world oil prices. Domestic sales of 2.5 million tons a month translate to about 160 Kg per capita consumption of cement, the highest level in Pakistan's history. 

Pakistan saw its domestic cement consumption double from about 11 million tons in 2003 to 22 million tons in 2008 on President Musharraf's watch. It remained essentially flat from 2009 through 2011 before rising to a new high of 24 million tons in 2012. With expected GDP annual growth to average 4.5-5.5 per cent over the next 3 years, local cement sales could rise by 9 per cent on average annually to reach 34 million tons per year by 2017 and exports to 8 million tons per year.

Cement sales and building activity indicators are an important sign of the strength or weakness of the broader economy, due to construction's important role in the economic sector. If individuals and businesses are willing to invest in new construction, it is a sign that the economy is doing well or poised to recover. If they aren't, the economy may be weak or headed for trouble. Construction is a very labor-intensive activity which creates many new jobs. Higher employment drives consumer spending which further stimulates the national economy.

In addition to rising demand for housing and new commercial real-estate, major infrastructure and energy projects related to the China-Pakistan Industrial Corridor are expected to significantly boost domestic cement consumption and create millions of new jobs over the next several years.

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Comment by Riaz Haq on June 21, 2015 at 10:51pm

Pakistan’s consumption up 8%, but exports fall
While Pakistan’s cement industry recorded strong domestic growth of 8.07 per cent in cement consumption during May, there was also a steep decline in exports and the sector is not performing to full capacity.

The decline in exports during May was 26.13 per cent which led to an overall decline of 0.39 per cent in the cement despatches compared with May 2014.

A spokesman of the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) said the cement industry was still operating below capacity despite almost 7.98 per cent growth in the domestic consumption during the first 11 months of this fiscal. He said overall decline in exports in the first 11 months of 2014-15 was 10.82 per cent that restricted the total growth in the industry to only 3.47 per cent.

Pakistan’s cement industry despatched 25.492Mt of cement for domestic market during July-May period of this fiscal against 23.608Mt despatched during the corresponding period last year, according to the APCMA.

The government has moved to protect the cement industry with its federal budget that has some direct and indirect incentives for the domestic cement industry for next FY15-16 (July – June), which will increase demands for cement in country.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said the duty on cement imports as "preemptive action" to promote the local industry and avoid cement dumping. The minster has proposed enhancement of duty on import of cement, rationalisation of tax structure for construction industry/ housing development, a significant rise of 27 per cent in Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) allocation, a five-year tax holiday for establishing new manufacturing facility in northern province and reduction in corporate tax by one per cent are positive steps for industry.

However, the government also proposes increase in duty on import of coal. According to finance bill, coal attracts one per cent customs duty. Since all other fuels attract higher duty rates, it is proposed that customs duty on Coal be increased from one to five per cent. The industry will comfortably pass on PKR2.0/bag (US$0.019) -PKR3.5/bag (US$0.034) to end consumers.

http://www.cemnet.com/News/story/156988/pakistan-s-consumption-up-8...

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 30, 2015 at 4:07pm

In 'Best Hidden' Frontier Market, a Boom Signals a #Pakistan Revival. #Karachi http://bloom.bg/1FOh2lW via @business 

Dwarfing the (Ghazi) monument today is a gleaming 62-story highrise, coming up right next door. The building is one of at least half a dozen projects springing up in the locality as developers from Dubai’s Emaar Properties PJSC to local tycoons change the face of Pakistan’s financial hub and the skylines of many smaller towns.
The construction boom also marks the nation’s emergence as a frontier market after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif averted a balance-of-payments crisis with help from the International Monetary Fund and resumed selling stakes in state companies. He is boosting infrastructure spending as the $232 billion economy expands at the fastest pace since 2008 amid the cheapest borrowing costs in 42 years.
“It is the best, undiscovered investment opportunity in emerging or frontier markets,” said Charlie Robertson, London-based chief economist at Renaissance Capital Ltd. “What’s changed is the delivery of reforms -- privatization, an improved fiscal picture and good relations with the IMF.”
Shrugging off sectarian violence, bombings, killings and kidnappings, the benchmark KSE100 stock index has advanced about 16 percent in the past 12 months, featuring among the world’s top 10 performers.
D.G. Khan Cement Co., controlled by billionaire Mian Muhammad Mansha, and Cherat Cement Co. have announced expansion plans, while steelmakers are selling shares.
Steel IPOs
Amreli Steels Ltd., the nation’s biggest maker of steel bars used in construction, is planning a share sale to help double capacity. Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Ltd. completed an initial public offering in April.
Pakistan’s cement industry has rallied 57 percent in the past year, more than triple the gains by the benchmark, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. D.G. Khan Cement, the third-largest maker of the construction material, has jumped 62 percent and Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. has surged 161 percent and Fauji Cement Co. Ltd. has gained 81 percent.
“The construction industry is seeing a boom, and there is still juice left in the cement rally,” said Mir Muhammad Ali, chief executive officer of UBL Fund Managers Ltd. that handles about 56 billion rupees ($550 million) in stocks and bonds in Karachi. “Overall economic improvement has also helped.”
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Violence, mostly from Taliban-linked insurgents who want to impose their version of Islamic law, has claimed more than 60,000 lives since 2001. Sharif survived a scare last August when opposition parties demanded his resignation over accusations he rigged the elections in 2013. He denied the allegation but agreed to a probe by a tribunal.
Standing by Pakistan is the nation’s long-time strategic ally. In April, Asia’s biggest economy, China, signed deals for $28 billion of investments in Pakistan as part of a planned $45 billion economic corridor that includes power plants and dams.
The development in cities and smaller towns is trickling down and is good news for smaller contractors as well .
“Business has been very good, and there’s no doubt my work has tripled in five years,” said Mohammed Hassan Bakshi, 43, a builder in Karachi. “There’s huge demand from the middle class for affordable housing.”
Builders in Pakistan are seeking technology from China to help cut down construction and project execution times to as little as six months from as long as five years, he said.
The nation’s construction sector grew by 11.3 percent in the year through June 2014, almost double the 5.7 percent target, according to central bank data. Pakistan is a reform story like neighboring India’s, but only better, said Renaissance’s Robertson.
“All of this is a big change on 2013,” he said. “Credit rating agencies are beginning to recognize this.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 16, 2015 at 10:18pm

#Pakistan real estate Boom: #Karachi and #Islamabad markets record gains http://tribune.com.pk/story/921613/real-estate-karachi-and-islamaba...

When prices of real estate stagnated in 2014, all eyes were focused on the next year with hopes that it would bring along some momentum in the market. Truly, the much-needed activity emerged, though in part, in the first half of this year.

In almost all popular localities in Karachi and Islamabad, property prices went up over the six-month period from January to June 2015, showed data released by zameen.com, a property portal of the country.

Lahore, however, continued to record sluggish activity with prices remaining static this year as well. But this is not a worrying sign. The property market of Lahore often slows down when investors pay more attention to real estate developments in the country’s capital as well as in Karachi.



In an encouraging development, several new projects are on the cards in Lahore, including the 60,000-kanal LDA City and the 40,000-kanal DHA Phase IX. These and other projects are widening the scope of investment opportunities in the city, which will help steady the property market in the long run.

In the first half of 2015, one of the top localities in the city, Lahore Cantt, registered a decline of 9.29% in prices while real estate markets in DHA Lahore, Bahria Town and LDA Avenue-I remained stable.

Average price for a one-kanal plot went down only 1.02% in DHA Lahore in the first half whereas in Bahria Town the same plot cost 3.26% more over the same period.

Similar stability was noted in LDA Avenue-I, where average price for a one-kanal plot edged up a negligible 1.05%.

Though Johar Town continued to offer one of the highest rental yields at 4.26%, DHA Lahore and Lahore Cantt remained the more expensive neighbourhoods. On average, a one-kanal house in the localities cost Rs36 million and Rs37.5 million respectively.


Here, three of the four popular localities recorded decent gains in the first half, with Bahria Town the only top locality posting a slight drop in property prices. In comparison to the miserable second half of 2014, this was a good turnaround for the real estate market in the capital.



A moderate growth was noticed in Sector F-11 and DHA Islamabad as prices of one-kanal plots rose 6.05% and 6.96% respectively. There was also a modest growth of 6.39% in plot prices in Sector E-11.

Bahria Town, however, remained stable with a slight dip of 1.20% in one-kanal plot prices in the first half of the current calendar year.

Sector F-11 was one of the most expensive areas for buying one-kanal houses in Islamabad with an average price of Rs68.2 million. It was closely followed by Sector E-11 where average prices were Rs62.9 million for a one-kanal home.

However, Bahria Town, despite a slight dip in average prices, offered a high rental yield at 4.35%.

With investor focus squarely on Karachi for several months now, the city’s top localities have seen decent rises in prices as well as hectic activity in the first half despite Ramazan and a deadly heatwave.

Gulshan-e-Iqbal and DHA City Karachi recorded handsome price increases whereas DHA Karachi and Bahria Town also posted healthy gains to play their part in a very encouraging overall performance.

Prices of a 500-square-yard plot in DHA Karachi showed a restricted – by Karachi standards – growth of 6.09% while Bahria Town posted a healthy rise of 9.85%.

Prices went up 12.36% in Gulshan-e-Iqbal and 12.23% in DHA City Karachi, indicating a satisfactory and controlled growth.

DHA Karachi was one of the costliest neighbourhoods for buying homes with average sale price of Rs58.9 million for a 500-square-yard house.

Though Gulshan-e-Iqbal offered a relatively higher rental yield at 5.01%, average house prices stood at Rs37.4 million in the locality, well short of the prices prevailing in DHA Karachi.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/921613/real-estate-karachi-and-islamaba...

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 27, 2015 at 9:07am

Sheikh Arshad took round of the Expo hall and discussed the matters related to construction activities with the stall holders. In the end, he distributed souvenirs among the participants and the organisers of the Dream Home Expo 2015.

The visitors also appreciated the Jang Media Group efforts for creation of awareness and consultancy for the general public regarding the purchase of land or house of their dream through Dream Home Expo. They enjoyed food at food courts, children enjoyed puppet show and entertainment games there. The representatives of the companies who established their stalls provided consultancy and guideline to the visitors about their future land purchase and investment. The stall holders of big builders, real estate, home appliances, paint, and furniture brands told the visitors that how they can amicably utilise their budget. They vowed to participate in future Expo of Jang Media Group too.

The participants of the Expo were Izhar Monnoo Developers, Athar Marketing Network, Eden Housing Ltd, Paradise Holdings, Bahria Town, Start Marketing, Fast Marketing, Green Land Housing, Orient Group of Companies, Super Asia, SA Garden, Royal Residencia, NM estate, Athar Associates, Ali Saqlain Real Estate & Builders, Haroon Estate, LDA City, Brighto Paints, Hapilac Paints, Master City Gujranwala, Honesty Estate, Boss Furniture, Hayat Lahore, Sheranwala Heights, Sonica-Chawla Group, Venus, G M Cable, City Estate, Alfa Estate, Value Group, Royal Estate and others. It is pertinent to mention here that the Dream Home Expo 2015 was opened by the Punjab Minister for Excise & Taxation Mian Mujtaba Shuja-ur-Rehman.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-5-353427-Dream-Home-Expo-2015...

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 11, 2017 at 10:39am

#Karachi's "land mafia" killing exposes the dark underbelly of #Pakistan's real estate boom. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-10/-land-mafias-and... … via @business

Perween Rahman was returning home one evening in March 2013 from her job as head of the Orangi Pilot Project, which for years has pushed land title claims for Karachi’s poor, when she was shot three times by a gunman on a motorcycle.

Rahman died as she was rushed to hospital by her friend and colleague Anwar Rashid. “He was a sharp shooter,” said Rashid, now 71 years old and white-haired, but still a director of the OPP, pointing to his throat and chest to indicate where Rahman was hit. “This is because of the land -- the police, the mafia, all involved.”

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“Public land has commonly been illegally regularized and sold,” Brussels-based conflict watchdog International Crisis Group said in a February report. “It has become the city’s most prized and contested commodity, with federal, provincial and local land-owning agencies, military cantonments, corporate entities and formal and informal developers competing to extract as much value as possible. Given the fiscal stakes, disputes are settled by bribery and political, bureaucratic and police patronage, and even deadly force.”


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Some 13 different government agencies are tasked with regulating laws and coordinating development, but slums have sprung up across the city with little regard for any of these. 


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Karachi’s real estate in recent years has offered better returns than Dubai and London, according to tycoon Arif Habib, who is building a $2 billion gated estate in the Naya Nazimbad district, neighboring an area that used to be controlled by Taliban militants. One of his units said on Monday that it has filed an application with the government to buy an extra 900 acres to expand the project.

Habib also pioneered and listed Pakistan’s only real estate investment trust in 2015, offering a stake in one of Karachi’s most prominent malls and office towers. Developers including Habib and rival builders such as real estate baron Malik Riaz Hussain and the military’s property arms, are tapping into the price boom.

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Rahman’s family and associates suspect her work mapping Karachi’s poor districts and helping residents gain land titles put her in conflict with powerful criminal networks. The OPP mapped more than 1,000 settlements between 2006 and 2013, though that stopped after Rahman’s death and subsequent threats and attacks on the group’s staff.

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One example of heightened scrutiny is property mogul Hussain’s vast city-sized Bahria Town development about an hour’s drive from Karachi. Construction began in 2014 and, when completed, the enclave will boast a 36-hole golf course, theme parks, five-lane highways, Dubai-style fountains, and what it says will be the world’s third-largest mosque.

A 125 square yard house in Bahria Town that initially sold for 1.73 million rupees ($16,000) is now between 2.4 million rupees to 3.5 million rupees, said M. Akmal Khan Khattak, a marketing manager at real-estate agent Athar Associates. He’s been recommending the purchase to his clients.

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“They have provided security, they have provided electricity,” Tariq said, referring to Bahria Town. “People see their success and they will follow.”

Sindh province, of which Karachi is the capital, is now looking to computerize land records which may help curb corruption, Mohammad Zubair, governor of the province and a member of the federal ruling party, said in an interview in March. This was earlier done in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous region that’s also governed by the same party.

“Of course the challenge will always remain,” Zubair said when asked about land grabbing. “Because the political players and people in important positions are involved.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 11, 2017 at 11:17am

#Pakistan #cement capacity reaches 47 million tons. Utilization at 87% with shipments at 41 million tons. #CPEC

http://nation.com.pk/business/11-Sep-2017/cement-industry-s-despatc...

The capacity utilisation of the cement industry was high at 86.46 percent in July 2017, while the annual cement despatch capacity of the industry has increased to 46.94 million tons.

Local dispatches from units based in northern region of the country were 2.423 million tons while their export despatches were 0.338 million tons in July 2017 as opposed to 1.516 million tons local and 0.306 million tons export despatches in July 2016. The turnaround after a dismal performance in June 2017 took the industry by surprise and the sharp increase in despatches in July 2017 revived hopes for the sector. The despatches were achieved despite political turmoil in the country and unprecedented rains throughout the country which depicts the maturity of the construction sector of the country. South based mills also recorded a growth in local despatches which increased from 0.352 million tons in July 2016 to 0.483 million tons in July 2017; whereas, exports took a hit going down to 0.138 million tons from 0.159 million tons in July 2016. A spokesman of All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers’ Association said that the despatch figures for July are most encouraging. However, he said that this does not mean that the economic planners ignore the genuine difficulties faced by this sector.

He said the industry is performing in stiff regulatory environment and is only surviving because it has upgraded its technology that has provided it the strength to take any challenge head on.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 18, 2017 at 10:59am

UAE's Danube eyeing larger footprint in Pakistan
Waheed Abbas/Dubai
Filed on October 18, 2017 | Last updated on October 18, 2017 at 08.17 pm

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/real-estate/danube-eyeing-lar...

Pakistani nationals are one of the largest investors in Dubai's real estate sector
Real estate firm Danube Group aims to strengthen its presence in Pakistan by attracting more investments into its property portfolio, and is also expanding its home furnishing brand into the South Asian country.

"Pakistan is strategically a very important market. We are searching for a right franchise partner there. Some investors have shown interest, [so] we are evaluating the right partner. Post completion of the market research and study, we are looking to open stores across major cities of Pakistan. Though the location is still not decided, we will plan the location based on our research analysis," said Adel Sajan, director of Danube Group.

He pointed out that Danube Home stores usually span an area between 5,000 sqft to 10,000 sqft for boutique concepts and 25,000 sqft to 45,000 sqft for the big box concept, with an investment ranging between $400,000 (Dh1.468 million) to $2.5 million (Dh9.175 million), depending on the size of the store, number of stores and operating cost in the country. In order to tap Pakistani investors, the Dubai-based group recently appointed cricket captain Sarfaraz Ahmed as its ambassador in Dubai.

Atif Rahman, director and partner at Danube Properties, told Khaleej Times in an interview that the group's customer base from Pakistan is expanding fast, therefore, it's important with over 200 million population to focus on the market and reach out to customers there.

"Right now, between seven to eight per cent of investors - and revenues - are from Pakistan. In terms of sale value, we are talking about Dh200 million-plus investments by Pakistani nationals in to Danube's projects. We are also seeing month-on-month increase in investments that motivated us to be associated with a brand ambassador from that market and also start venturing into that market locally. Therefore, you will see a lot of road shows and activities in Karachi and Lahore at the end of October and early November," Rahman revealed during the interview.

Meanwhile, Pakistani nationals are one of the largest investors in Dubai's real estate sector. A recent statement by Dubai Land Department said that Pakistani nationals made 5,398 real estate transactions worth nearly Dh7 billion. Pakistan's Federal Board of Revenue recently told parliament that its nationals had parked $8 billion (Dh29.36 billion) in to the UAE's - mainly in Dubai - real estate sector.

Rahman said: "Without any doubt, our business from Pakistan is going to grow. There is a consistent demand for construction material as well as properties. We have a very traditional, conventional and organic way of expanding business. We go out on a small scale and grow it strength-by-strength. Right now, we have added two cities of Karachi and Lahore; if the response continues to be good and numbers are increasing, we will continue to invest. There is no upper limit - it's purely organic and based on the confidence in the market," he noted.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 30, 2017 at 7:33am

THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > BUSINESS
Construction sector records impressive 9% expansion

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1419502/construction-sector-records-im...

The construction sector has once again posted a strong growth of 9% in the outgoing year, lower than the 14.6% increase in 2016, but much higher than the average growth of the past five years, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-2017.

Excluding the exceptional growth of 2016 and 2017, the average growth in the construction sector up to 2015, since FY12, was just 4%. Construction industry officials believe the recent growth is encouraging for the industry as well as the country because this will create new jobs.

According to government estimates, construction-related activities will gain further momentum on the back of increased public sector development spending coupled with infrastructure and power sector development projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The construction sector contributes 2.4% to Gross Domestic Product, according to government assessments.
The robust construction activities also led to an increase in demand for steel and allied products, according to the survey.

“Cement growth derived from robust domestic demand, which allowed manufacturers to enhance their capacity utilisation. The outlook is encouraging on account of firm demand due to flourishing housing schemes and rising development spending along with anticipated CPEC-related projects,” it added.

Govt may withdraw special income tax

Despite extraordinary growth, the government is upset as it did not achieve its tax collection target from the sector in the outgoing fiscal year. “It is true that we could not collect the targeted amount from the real estate sector in this year,” said Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Thursday.

However, he said that tax collection increased after the implementation of the new property valuation methodology by the Federal Board of Revenue in 2016.

Dar also said that construction industry officials requested the government to gradually implement the new tax regime, otherwise it could hurt the current high growth of the industry. Revenues from the construction sector dipped to a meagre Rs112 million in the outgoing fiscal year against conservative official annual estimates of Rs8 billion.

The representatives of builders and developers committed to tax authorities that the industry would pay up to Rs28 billion in income taxes under the new final tax regime, which was implemented in mid-2016.

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