Comment by Riaz Haq on April 28, 2021 at 6:58pm

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke Wednesday by phone with Pakistan's top military official to discuss regional security and the foreign troop drawdown in neighboring Afghanistan.

https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/pakistan-us-discuss-afgh...

Austin's conversation with General Qamar Javed Bajwa came as the last remaining 2,500 or so U.S. troops were preparing to begin pulling out of Afghanistan. The withdrawal, which starts Saturday and is to end by September 11, is intended to conclude America's longest war.

The Pentagon said Austin "expressed appreciation" for Pakistan's support for Afghan peace negotiations and "reaffirmed the importance" of Washington's relationship with Islamabad.

A readout of the conversation said the two leaders talked about the importance of regional stability and the desire for the United States and Pakistan to continue working together on "shared goals and objectives in the region."

The Pakistani military's media wing quoted Bajwa as telling Austin that peace in Afghanistan "means peace in Pakistan."

The general reiterated that his country would "always support [an] Afghan-led, Afghan-owned peace process based on mutual consensus of all stakeholders."

The withdrawal of American forces and around 7,000 NATO troops is in line with a year-old agreement Washington negotiated with the Taliban.

Key role in talks

Pakistan, which has been accused of harboring insurgent sanctuaries, is credited with arranging the U.S.-Taliban talks that culminated in the signing of the agreement on February 29, 2020.

The deal encouraged the Taliban to open peace talks last September in Qatar with Afghan government negotiators, though the process has long been deadlocked and has largely failed to reduce deadly violence.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the American chief peace negotiator, told lawmakers in Washington on Tuesday that the U.S. administration had urged Pakistani leaders to exercise their "considerable leverage" over the Taliban to reduce violence and support a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

"Pakistan has a special responsibility given its influence over the Taliban, so we appreciate what Pakistan has done so far," Khalilzad told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

"But we are not there yet, and of course we look forward to working with them to get to a peace agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government in the coming weeks and months," the U.S. envoy said.

The troop withdrawal from Afghanistan was supposed to be completed by May 1, as stipulated in the U.S.-Taliban deal. But U.S. President Joe Biden, while announcing the final drawdown plans earlier this month, cited logistical reasons for not meeting the deadline.

---------------

The 10-day Istanbul conference was supposed to start on April 24, but the Taliban's refusal forced the organizers to postpone it.

Meanwhile, senior officials from Russia, the U.S., China and Pakistan will reportedly meet on Friday to discuss ways to advance intra-Afghan peace talks.

"We will be discussing solutions to the current situation in the intra-Afghan negotiations. We will be trying to work out a common position to give an impetus for the talks to take place," Zamir Kabulov, Russian presidential envoy for Afghanistan, told the Tass news agency.

Kabulov did not say where the huddle would take place, but last month Moscow hosted envoys from the four nations, together with delegates of the Taliban and the Afghan government. They pressed the two warring parties to restart their stalled talks but were unsuccessful.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 29, 2021 at 9:44pm

US to revive special #export zones in Pakistan & Afghanistan. #Karachi -born US Senator Van Hollen urged President #Biden to resume the US-Pakistan dialogue with a call to Prime Minister Imran Khan. #US needs Pakistan’s help to end the Afghan conflict


https://www.dawn.com/news/1621188

A bipartisan bill will soon be introduced in the US Senate to set up duty-free export zones along the Pak-Afghan border, says a senior US lawmaker.

The proposed legislation will allow these trade pockets, known as the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones or ROZs, to export certain duty-free goods to the United States, said Senator Van Hollen, a key Democrat on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

Mr Van Hollen told a full committee hearing on the US policy in Afghanistan on Tuesday that elements within the Biden administration already support this proposal.

The Karachi-born US lawmaker also urged President Joe Biden to resume the US-Pakistan dialogue by calling Prime Minister Imran Khan because the US needs Pakistan’s support to end the Afghan conflict. He told the key witness, Zalmay Khalilzad, that he too had acknowledged Pakistan’s importance in resolving this dispute in previous statements.

Ambassador Khalilzad, a Trump appointee retained by the Biden administration as a special US representative, too recognised Pakistan’s “special role” in facilitating peace talks and backed Senator Van Hollen’s call for re-engaging Pakistan.

In 2009, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to establish ROZs in Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan. Mr Biden too had backed this legislation, which was never implemented.

“We will be reintroducing that as a bipartisan bill soon,” Senator Van Hollen told the committee, adding that he believed increased trade in this region would contribute to peace.

“This would be a condition-based tool that the president of the United State will have the authority to calibrate, based on conditions on the ground,” he added.

“Is it the kind of tool that you believe could be useful in shaping some of the decisions about the future of Afghanistan?” he asked Ambassador Khalilzad.

“We support the idea of increased trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan, between Afghanistan and Pakistan and Central Asia, and we support increased trade between us and Afghanistan and Pakistan,” the envoy responded. “It seems to me that it is a very worthwhile concept to explore and work on.”

“I know other parts of the administration are looking at it as a positive tool that we can deploy in trying to shape the future of this region,” the senator said, adding that the proposed bill would soon go to the Senate Finance Committee.

The senator then engaged Ambassador Khalilzad in a discussion over Pakistan’s role in the Afghan conflict, pointing out that “the country that has the most direct, potential influence here is Pakistan.”

He reminded Mr Khalilzad that he too has acknowledged Pakistan’s importance, calling it a country that “has direct interest in stability in Afghanistan” and reasons to dislike “chaos and a full-blown war there.”

“Of course, Pakistan fought its own war with the Pakistani Taliban, did it not?” the senator asked. “It did,” Mr Khalilzad replied.

“You have pointed out that Pakistan has helped to facilitate your negotiations with the Taliban in Doha, is that right?” Senator Van Hollen asked again. “It has,” the envoy said.

“How would you characterise Pakistan’s support now?” the senator asked.

“They have been supportive of our efforts to press the Taliban to reduce violence, to enter negotiations with the government of Afghanistan, to be an active participant in peace negotiations including in a (planned) conference in Istanbul,” Mr Khalilzad said.

“Pakistan has a special responsibility given its influence over the Taliban and we appreciate what Pakistan has done so far but we are not there yet,” he said. “We look forward to working with them to get to a peace agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government in coming weeks and months.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 2, 2021 at 7:15am

Zakaria: "Americans (have a) tradition of exaggerating the threats we face, from the Soviet Union to Saddam Hussein. As we scour the world for new foes, let’s learn to right-size our adversaries and find a way to run fast but not run scared" #BinLaden #US https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/ten-years-l...


This weekend marks the 10th anniversary of the operation, code-named Neptune Spear, that killed Osama bin Laden. It’s an opportunity to reflect on the state of Islamist terrorism and radical Islam more generally. And the initial diagnosis is clear: The movement is in bad shape.

Total deaths caused by terrorism around the world have plummeted by 59 percent since their peak in 2014. In the West, the current threat is less from Islamist violence than far-right terrorism, which has surged by 250 percent in the same period, and now makes up 46 percent of attacks and 82 percent of deaths.

Most Islamist terrorism today tends to be local — the Taliban in Afghanistan, Boko Haram in Nigeria, al-Shabab in the Horn of Africa. That’s a major reversal from the glory days of al-Qaeda, when its leaders insisted that the focus must be not on the “near enemy” (the local regimes) but rather the “far enemy” (the United States and the West more broadly). Al-Qaeda has disintegrated into a bunch of militias in disparate places with no central command or ideology. The Islamic State is doing slightly better, with more funds, but it, too, searches for unstable or ungoverned places, such as Mozambique, where it can operate. This focus on local conflicts erodes any global appeal. Muslims around the world do not identify with local causes in Mozambique or Somalia.

Militant Islam, which began to flourish in the 1970s, rooted its appeal in failure — the failure of the dictatorships and monarchies of the Arab world to develop their societies. Islamists urged Muslims to give up on Western-style modernization, which had led only to poverty and tyranny, and to embrace instead the idea of political Islam — the road to an Islamic state. People such as bin Laden and his associate Ayman al-Zawahiri turned political Islam into militant Islam because they argued it was the only way to topple the dictatorships of the Arab world and beyond. They urged terrorism against those regimes but most importantly, against the superpower that supported them — the United States.

In an essay in the journal Religions, Nader Hashemi points out that the allure of political Islam was always that of an untested opposition movement, a mystical alternative to the shoddy reality that existed on the ground in the Muslim world. But over the past few decades, Islamist parties have entered the political process in Iraq, Sudan, Tunisia, Egypt, Gaza, Jordan and other places. “One general theme stands,” writes Hashemi. “The popular prestige of political Islam has been tarnished by its experience with state power.”

Millions of Muslims have now seen political Islam in action — and they don’t like it. They fled the Islamic State caliphate in droves. They protested against the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. They watched Shiite parties in Iraq turn into corrupt patronage operations. And in Iran, they continue to be deeply disenchanted by that country’s theocratic government. The oxygen that fed political Islam — disgust with the current regimes and blind faith in the promise of religious leaders — has been severely depleted.

-----------

The lessons to draw about Islam, Islamist terrorism and the prospects for democracy in Islamic countries are complicated and varied. 2021 is also the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring, when millions of Arabs tried to peacefully protest for democracy and human rights, a movement that sprouted up again over the past few years in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq. Though these efforts have had limited success, they show powerfully that Arabs and Muslims want freedom and democracy far more than they do a caliphate.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 6, 2021 at 4:16pm

Why Biden won’t engage with Pakistan
US leader has not contacted his Pakistani counterpart despite Islamabad's crucial role in brokering an Afghan peace settlement

https://asiatimes.com/2021/05/why-biden-wont-engage-with-pakistan/

Islamabad has not yet publicly conveyed its reservations about the Biden administration’s perceived snubs, but senior officials admit privately that they feel the gestures have been deliberate and not mere diplomatic oversight.

-------------


Fast forward to the present, the new US administration likely wants Islamabad to demonstrate it is not a pliant proxy of China. That’s easier said than done in light of Beijing’s US$60 billion commitment to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a key, strategic spoke of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Mushahid Hussain Syed, a Pakistani politician, analyst and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Senator, told Asia Times that there was a perceived lack of sensitivity and gratitude on the part of the US for what Pakistan has and is doing to “pull the American chestnuts out of the fire on Afghanistan.”

“While Pakistan is pressing the ‘right buttons’ on FATF, India, Afghanistan and terrorism issues, which the US considers key irritants, they still seem to view Pakistan through the prism of the emerging Cold War. They are aligning with India to contain the Chinese influence in the region, which is going to backfire. The US should have rather built bridges with Islamabad that strived to bail out Washington from its latest defeat in yet another land war in Asia,” Syed said.

---------


While China’s economic influence looms large, Pakistan still needs Washington’s support, both to sustain disbursements of its $6 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and to be removed from the terror-financing and money-laundering watchdog Financial Action Task Force’s “grey list”, a designation that hinders Islamabad’s participation in global financial markets.

If Biden could influence either organization’s decision-making in Pakistan’s favor, he hasn’t done so yet. The IMF has so far released two tranches of $450 million each of an Extended Fund Facility program initiated in 2019, but delayed a second review meeting and the release of a third tranche last month without letting Pakistani officials know in advance.

Similarly, the FATF kept Pakistan on its grey list in February because “Pakistan must improve its investigations and prosecutions of all groups and entities financing terrorists and their associates and show that penalties imposed by courts are effective.” The next FATF plenary review of Pakistan’s status is due in June this year.


The proposals under consideration include so-called “Reconstruction Opportunity Zones” (ROZs), an initiative first broached by the George W Bush administration in 2006 in return for Islamabad’s support for the US “war on terror” in neighboring Afghanistan, where al Qaeda was then known to maintain bases.

The committee has also proposed the formation of a US-Pakistan Economic Zone at Karachi’s port to re-process industrial goods at concessional rates for export to US markets. The apex committee’s work has so far remained confined to working papers in the absence of an opportunity for Khan to engage personally with Biden’s team.

Mushahid opined that the new US administration seems confused about Pakistan’s role in the Afghanistan peace process, a communication breakdown that could fatally hinder ties.

“The only clarity seems to be a readiness to scapegoat Pakistan if and when things go wrong in Afghanistan,” said Syed, “while conjuring up the ‘China threat’ to justify their bloated military budgets.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 11, 2021 at 4:55pm

#Pakistan Says NO to #US Bases. #Biden administration has acknowledged it's in talks with #Afghanistan's neighbors to examine where it can reposition troops to prevent landlocked country from once again becoming a #terrorist base for groups like al-Qaida. https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/pakistan-no-more-militar...

Pakistan ruled out Tuesday the possibility of again providing its military bases to the United States for future counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan after U.S. troops leave the conflict-torn neighbor by September 11.

Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi made the remarks to reporters in Islamabad, explaining that his government has adopted a policy that allows it to become "only partners in peace” and not join any future U.S. war.

“No sir, we do not intend to allow boots on the ground and no [U.S.] bases are being transferred to Pakistan,” Qureshi said when asked whether his government is under pressure to give military bases to the U.S.

President Joe Biden’s administration has acknowledged it is in talks with several Central Asian neighbors of Afghanistan to examine where it can reposition troops to prevent the landlocked country from once again becoming a terrorist base for groups like al-Qaida.

But U.S. officials have not named Pakistan, which shares a nearly 2,600-kilometers border with Afghanistan, nor have they commented on media speculation that the subject of bases might be under bilateral discussions.

Qureshi noted that Pakistan has also been consistently using its leverage over the Taliban, who have been waging a deadly insurgency against the U.S.-backed Afghan government, to encourage them to stop their violent campaign and negotiate a political settlement with Afghan rivals.

The foreign minister said “we feel” the Taliban’s engagement in the Afghan peace process would bring and enhance the “international respectability and recognition” that the group required.

“If they want to be acceptable, if they want delisting to take place, if they want recognition then engagement, giving up violence and looking for a political solution is in their political interest,” he said.

Qureshi referred to the Taliban's demand for the United Nations and the U.S. to delist top insurgent leaders from their sanctions lists.

The chief Pakistani diplomat hailed as a positive development the Taliban’s declaration of a three-day cease-fire during this week’s Eid festival in Afghanistan. The Kabul government has responded by ordering Afghan forces to halt all offensive operations against the insurgents during the three-day festivities beginning Thursday.

Pakistan has long been accused of harboring Taliban leaders, but in recent years, Washington and other Western powers have hailed Islamabad’s efforts in bringing the insurgents to the negotiating table with U.S. interlocutors and subsequently with rival Afghan groups.

The commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East and parts of South Asia warned during recent congressional testimony that Washington would face substantial challenges to track new or growing terrorist threats once the military completes the planned Afghan withdrawal.

“We’re examining this problem with all of our resources right now to find a way to do it in the most intelligent, risk-free manner that we can," said General Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie. "It's going to be extremely difficult."

Pakistani military bases and ground and air lines of communication played a vital role in facilitating and sustaining the U.S.-led military invasion of Afghanistan 20 years ago.

The punitive military action was undertaken to oust the Islamist Taliban from power days after the September 11, 2001, strikes on the U.S. that were plotted by al-Qaida leaders from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan at the time.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 25, 2021 at 9:44pm

With #Afghanistan's Future at Stake, #US Woos #Pakistan. US efforts to solidify plans after withdrawal take on urgency in recent days, leaning on outreach from #WhiteHouse and the #Pentagon to overcome a decade of strained ties and start to win over Pak https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/afghanistans-future-stak...


More than three weeks into the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Washington's plans to help ensure the country does not descend into chaos remain murky despite a ramped-up effort to get Afghanistan's neighbors — Pakistan in particular — to do more.

The focus has been on rallying support, both for the ongoing diplomatic push to keep talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban on track, and for military cooperation should instability make new U.S. counterterrorism operations necessary.

But the U.S. efforts to solidify plans for what comes next appear to have taken on renewed urgency in recent days, leaning on outreach from the White House and the Pentagon to overcome a decade of strained ties and start to win over Pakistani officials.

Already, U.S. officials have voiced some optimism that an initial meeting between U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his Pakistani counterpart, Moeed Yusuf, on Sunday in Geneva, went well.

"Both sides discussed a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues of mutual interest," according to a statement issued by the White House on Monday, which made no reference to Afghanistan.

"Both sides agreed to continue the conversation," it said.

The Pentagon, likewise, expressed confidence following a call early Monday between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa.

"The secretary's discussion this morning was very useful," Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters. "The secretary reiterated his appreciation for Pakistan's support for the Afghanistan peace negotiations and expressed his desire to continue to build on the United States-Pakistan bilateral relationship."

History of mistrust

Yet beyond the initial discussions, progress on both the military and diplomatic fronts appears to be elusive, complicated by years of mistrust, some of it dating back to May 2011, when Washington did not alert Pakistan to the U.S. special operations forces raid in Abbottabad that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

At the time, Islamabad warned the U.S. against any unilateral military action on Pakistani territory.

And Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Monday rejected the idea of allowing the U.S. to use Pakistan as a base for troops or as a staging point for potential airstrikes, dismissing speculation about the possibility of such an arrangement as "baseless and irresponsible."

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 27, 2021 at 10:26am

#Pakistan blueprint for bilateral ties with #US based on not just #security but #economy, #investment, #trade, #energy, #technology, & #climatechange. Pak NSA Moeed Yusuf may visit Washington soon following his recent meeting with his #American counterpart https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/pak-bluep...


In line with that approach, Prime Minister Imran Khan in March formed an Apex Committee that was tasked with formulating a new strategy on ties with the US under the Biden administration, the report said.

The 14-member committee is headed by Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and comprises ministers for finance, national food security, economic affairs, information technology, national security adviser, and Prime Minister's aides on commerce, climate change, human resource development, power, and investment.

The Terms of Reference of the committee solely focused on finding ways and means to seek cooperation between Pakistan and the US in the fields of economy, trade, business, energy, technology, and climate change.

This is seen as a clear departure from the earlier approach adopted by Pakistan and the US that largely focused on security cooperation with Afghanistan.

Sources said Moeed went to Geneva with a blueprint' envisaging Pakistan's desire to broaden its relationship with the US beyond security cooperation and Afghanistan, according to the report.

Different ministries and departments made several proposals identifying potential areas of cooperation between Pakistan and the US.

The Board of Investment (BoI) has proposed to attract more US foreign direct investment in Pakistan, especially through technology firms. The BoI also seeks US investment through special incentive regimes.

The Ministry of Commerce has suggested that an American-Pakistan Economic Zone could be set up near Karachi port to allow reprocessing at concessional rates.

It has also proposed to enhance structured engagement through TIFA Ministerial Council and Business Opportunities Conference. Last time, the TIFA council meeting was held in May 2019. The US-Pakistan TIFA is the primary mechanism for both countries to discuss trade and investment issues and focus on ways to strengthen the bilateral relationship.

The United States continues to be Pakistan's largest market for exports.

The Ministry of Commerce has also sought early finalisation of proposed legislation on Reconstruction Opportunity Zones, which had been promised by the Bush administration in return for Pakistan's support to the US war in Afghanistan.

However, it is not clear if the Biden administration is receptive to the idea given its strategic priorities and close ties with India. Also, close ties between Pakistan and China can be a major factor that may desist the US from seeking broader engagement with Pakistan, the report said.

It is believed that given the conversation, Pakistani authorities have had so far with the new US administration, Washington has linked future cooperation with Pakistan delivering on the Afghan peace process.

Unlike the past, this time the US does not want to give any incentives to Pakistan before the Afghan endgame. If there is a peace deal to the satisfaction of the US, there is a likelihood of Washington offering certain incentives to Islamabad on trade, economy, and other issues.

Meanwhile, sources said Moeed may visit Washington soon following his recent meeting with his American counterpart, the report said.

Qureshi rules out providing military bases to US in future

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 30, 2021 at 7:34pm

In budget, Biden administration seeks economic support for Pakistan

https://www.dawn.com/news/1626456

In its first budget, for fiscal year 2022, the Biden administration also seeks money for providing economic and social support to Pakistan and for training Pakistani military personnel.

On Friday, President Joe Biden unveiled the largest US budget in history — seeking $6 trillion for fiscal 2022. The budget calls for a 16 per cent increase in non-defence spending, mainly in social programmes and infrastructure projects.

The overall defence budget request of $715 billion — indicates a decline of about 3pc in real terms from the current year as Afghanistan, Iraq drawdowns cut $3.2bn from the US Army costs.

Congress told funding for Pakistan will support governance and tackle extremism

The budget still asks for $3.3bn in operational support to sustain the Afghanistan Security Forces, a 9.2pc increase from 2021.


The US State Department’s budget proposals for foreign operations and related programmes also include requests for Pakistan.

“Funding for Pakistan will support strengthened democratic governance, particularly near the Afghan border in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province; address the drivers of violent extremism and support stability in Afghanistan and expand economic growth, including by bilateral trade and investment where possible,” said the proposal the department sent to Congress on Friday.

Funds for these programmes will come from the $324.5 million the department is seeking for South and Central Asia.

The requested funds’ core US security objectives across South Asia include supporting peace and stability in the region, addressing the challenges of climate change, supporting the economic recovery from Covid-19, and revitalising US alliances and partnerships.

“Regional activities for South Asia will strengthen transparent governance and civil society participation, promote private sector growth, support energy generation, and expand trade, including across the Afghanistan and Pakistan border,” the State Department informs Congress.

The department is also seeking $13.8m for its International Military Education and Training (IMET) programmes in South and Central Asia, which “support US priorities for the region, by focusing on professionalising the defence forces of regional partners, emphasising professional military education. Priority recipients include Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal”.

Although IMET is a small budget programme, it enhances coordination between US Armed Forces and those of friendly nations.

Washington had excluded Pakistan from this programme but in January 2020, the Trump administration resumed the training facility.

“To strengthen military to military cooperation on shared priorities & advance US national security, the President of the United States authorised the resumption of IMET for Pakistan. The overall security assistance suspension for Pakistan remains in effect,” the announcement added.

The IMET programme was suspended in 2018, after Pakistan and Russia signed an agreement to allow Pakistani military officers to receive training in Russian military institutions.

In May 2018, Washington suspended most of its security aid, delivery of military equipment and transfer of security-related funds to Pakistan after claiming that Pakistan provided safe haven for terrorists in Afghanistan, which Islamabad had denied.

However, in July 2019, the US approved $125m to provide Pakistan with technical support for its fleet of F-16 aircraft, after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s first official visit to Washington.

In recent statements, US officials and lawmakers have once again showed interest in reviving their ties with Pakistan. They are also seeking ground and air access to Afghanistan from Pakistan after the withdrawal of their troops by Sept 11, 2021.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 7, 2021 at 7:54am

#CIA Scrambles for New Approach in #Afghanistan As #US Pulls Out. #BidenAdministration has asked Pakistan for help but #Pakistanis are demanding a variety of restrictions in exchange for the use of a base in the country for ops against #Taliban. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/cia-afghanistan-paki...

The rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops has left the agency seeking ways to maintain its intelligence-gathering, war-fighting and counterterrorism operations in the country.

The rapid U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan is creating intense pressure on the C.I.A. to find new ways to gather intelligence and carry out counterterrorism strikes in the country, but the agency has few good options.

The C.I.A., which has been at the heart of the 20-year American presence in Afghanistan, will soon lose bases in the country from where it has run combat missions and drone strikes while closely monitoring the Taliban and other groups such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. The agency’s analysts are warning of the ever-growing risks of a Taliban takeover.

United States officials are in last-minute efforts to secure bases close to Afghanistan for future operations. But the complexity of the continuing conflict has led to thorny diplomatic negotiations as the military pushes to have all forces out by early to mid-July, well before President Biden’s deadline of Sept. 11, according to American officials and regional experts.

One focus has been Pakistan. The C.I.A. used a base there for years to launch drone strikes against militants in the country’s western mountains, but was kicked out of the facility in 2011, when U.S. relations with Pakistan unraveled.


Any deal now would have to work around the uncomfortable reality that Pakistan’s government has long supported the Taliban. In discussions between American and Pakistani officials, the Pakistanis have demanded a variety of restrictions in exchange for the use of a base in the country, and they have effectively required that they sign off on any targets that either the C.I.A. or the military would want to hit inside Afghanistan, according to three Americans familiar with the discussions.

Diplomats are also exploring the option of regaining access to bases in former Soviet republics that were used for the Afghanistan war, although they expect that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would fiercely oppose this.

Recent C.I.A. and military intelligence reports on Afghanistan have been increasingly pessimistic. They have highlighted gains by the Taliban and other militant groups in the south and east, and warned that Kabul could fall to the Taliban within years and return to becoming a safe haven for militants bent on striking the West, according to several people familiar with the assessments.

As a result, U.S. officials see the need for a long-term intelligence-gathering presence — in addition to military and C.I.A. counterterrorism operations — in Afghanistan long after the deadline that Mr. Biden has set for troops to leave the country. But the scramble for bases illustrates how U.S. officials still lack a long-term plan to address security in a country where they have spent trillions of dollars and lost more than 2,400 troops over nearly two decades.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 8, 2021 at 7:49am

@Geeta_Mohan tweet:

NSA
@jakejsullivan
on US plans of having a drone base in Pakistan amid troop withdrawal from Afghanistan:
"We have had constructive discussions in military, intel, diplomatic channels with Pak about future of America's capabilities...specifics will have to remain in pvt channels"

https://twitter.com/Geeta_Mohan/status/1401948906125029376?s=20

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