EU-India Trade Deal: "Uncapped" Mass Migration of Indians?

The European Union (EU) and India have recently agreed to a trade deal which includes an MOU to allow “an uncapped mobility for Indian students”, according to officials, allowing Indians greater ease to travel, study and work across EU states. India's largest and most valuable export to the world is its people who last year sent $135 billion in remittances to their home country. Going by the numbers, the Indian economy is a tiny fraction of the European Union economy. Indians make up 17.8% of the world population but contribute only 3.3% of the global GDP. The European Union, on the other hand, has just 5.6% of the global population and produces 17.8% of the world's economic output. 

Indian Economy Dwarfed by EU. Source: DW

If finally signed and implemented, this "uncapped mobility" for Indians will probably become the most significant part of the deal.  “More than 800,000 Indians are living and actively contributing to the countries of the European Union", according to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The two sides welcomed the conclusion of the India‑EU Comprehensive Framework of Cooperation on Mobility, in line with the national competences of EU Member States and India and domestic legislation of both parties. They applauded the launch of the first pilot European Legal Gateway Office, as a one‑stop hub to provide information and support the movement of workers, starting with the ICT sector. 

Indians are currently the seventh-largest migrant group in Germany. Just the talk of "uncapped mobility" from India will trigger a backlash across Europe where far-right parties opposed to all immigration are gaining popularity. There have been high-profile hate incidents against Indians in several European countries recently.  While the rise of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) has increased hatred against Indian migrants, the arrival of the far-right in the mainstream political system in Germany has also started a conversation on racism that otherwise would have been swept under the rug. 

Undaunted by the anti-immigrant sentiments, the Indian government has quietly signed labor mobility agreements with at least 20 countries over the past half-dozen years — in Europe and Asia, including the Persian Gulf — all with developed economies and most without much history of hiring Indian workers, according to the New York Times.  Arnab Bhattacharya, the chief executive of the "Global Access to Talent From India Foundation" think tank, estimates that India could double its current export of 700,000 workers a year to 1.5 million by 2030. His country, he told the NY Times, “has a workforce that should be servicing the world and not just India.” Their real aim is to deal with the ongoing unemployment crisis in India. 

Indian economy is not generating enough jobs for the nation's growing working age population. Corporate profits of Indian firms are growing at a much slower pace than the 8.2% GDP growth in its most recent quarter. Net income for Nifty 50 Index firms likely rose 1.1% in the three months through Dec. 31 from a year earlier, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the slowest pace in five quarters, weighed down by deteriorating margins for banks. Falling profits and declining currency are causing foreign capital to flee Indian markets. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out over $20 billion from Indian equities in 2025, marking a severe, sustained withdrawal that has continued into 2026.  Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has seen consecutive monthly outflows, including $1.67 billion in October and $446 million in November 2025. Investment banker Ruchir Sharma wrote about it in a Financial Times op ed titled "India needs to import more capital and export fewer workers". Ruchir wrote: "Most strikingly, corporate revenue normally grows (or shrinks) with the economy — in any country. But last year corporate revenue growth for listed companies in India decelerated to barely half the GDP growth rate"

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Comment by Riaz Haq 5 hours ago

AI Overview
The 2026 EU-India trade deal, hailed as a "mother of all deals," faces significant opposition within the European Parliament, driven by concerns over lack of worker rights, environmental protections, and lingering protectionism in India
. Despite reducing Indian tariffs on autos and wine, critics fear the deal harms local producers without securing sufficient sustainable development guarantees. 
  • Opposition Highlights: Some MEPs and industry groups (like Eurofer) criticize the deal for imbalances, citing India's protectionist procurement policies.
  • Key Issues: The agreement lacks strong provisions on workers' rights and social protection, which angers key sections of the European Parliament.
  • Strategic Context: The deal was accelerated as a geopolitical counterweight to U.S. tariffs and to reduce reliance on China, making it sensitive to political shifts within the EU.
  • Ratification Hurdles: While aimed for 2027 implementation, the deal must pass approval from the European Parliament and all member states, where similar agreements (like Mercosur) have recently stalled. 
While the deal strengthens trade in automobiles and machinery, opposition remains regarding whether it truly creates a fair, rules-based partnership or simply prioritizes geopolitics over European standards. 

Comment by Riaz Haq 4 hours ago

auspill
@aus_pill
India’s ruling BJP party leadership have said they want a strong diaspora, using existing influential ones as their model. This influence, combined with remittances and staving off a youth unemployment crisis is why they’re aggressive about putting migration pacts in trade deals.

https://x.com/aus_pill/status/2016720162016411752?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq 4 hours ago

Ajay Kamath
@ajay43
The INR has fallen 6% against the Pakistani rupee over the past few weeks. It has literally collapsed against the Euro. Not one policy maker has an explanation, not one media outlet is asking questions, and
@iam_juhi
and
@SrBachchan
aren’t making jokes

https://x.com/ajay43/status/2016795856419357022?s=20

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sahil bhadviya
@sahilbhadviya
INR is not just falling against USD. It is falling against all major currencies. A euro trip is now 20% more expensive in last 1 yr. UK trip is 12%-14% expensive.. this is crazy. I fail to understand what is happening.

https://x.com/sahilbhadviya/status/2016772489519779916?s=20

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Pakistan becomes latest Asian country to introduce checks for deadly Nipah virus | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pakista...

Summary
India confirmed two infections in late December
India says no outbreak, no need for screening at its airports
A number of Asian nations have tightened screening
Nipah has high mortality rate but not easily transmitted
LAHORE/HANOI/HYDERABAD, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Authorities in Pakistan have ordered enhanced screening of people entering the country for signs of infections of the deadly Nipah virus after India confirmed two cases, adding to the number of Asian countries stepping up controls.
Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam have also tightened screening at airports. But an Indian official said there were no plans to introduce screening at the country's airports and said there was no sign of any outbreak.

The Nipah virus can cause fever and brain inflammation and has a high mortality rate. There is also no vaccine. But transmission from person to person is not easy and typically requires prolonged contact with an infected individual.
PAKISTAN SEEKS TRANSIT HISTORY
"It has become imperative to strengthen preventative and surveillance measures at Pakistan's borders," the Border Health Services department said in a statement.
"All travelers shall undergo thermal screening and clinical assessment at the Point of Entry," which includes seaports, land borders and airports, the department added.

The agency said travellers would need to provide transit history for the preceding 21-day period to check whether they had been through "Nipah-affected or high-risk regions".
There are no direct flights between Pakistan and India and travel between them is extremely limited, particularly since their worst fighting in decades erupted last May.
In Hanoi, the Vietnamese capital's health department on Wednesday also ordered the screening of incoming passengers at Noi Bai airport, particularly those arriving from India and the eastern state of West Bengal, where the two health workers were confirmed to have the virus in late December.

Passengers will be checked with body temperature scanners.
"This allows for timely isolation, epidemiological investigation," the department said in a statement.

That follows measures by authorities in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's largest city, who said they had tightened health controls at international border crossings.
NO OUTBREAK, NO WORRY, SAYS INDIA
India's health ministry said this week that authorities have identified and traced 196 contacts linked to the two cases with none showing symptoms and all testing negative for the virus.

The two infected people are health workers, with the male patient doing well and likely to be discharged from hospital soon, while the female patient remains critical and under treatment, the chief district medical officer in the eastern Indian state of West Bengal told Reuters on Thursday.
Indian health authorities have repeatedly sought to reassure people that the infection has been contained and that there is no reason to fear an outbreak. Federal health authorities also said there was no need to screen passengers at Indian airports.

Comment by Riaz Haq 16 minutes ago

Sólionath
@Anarseldain
Modi is an ethnic nationalist and the explicit goal of his party is to send millions of indians to the first world so that they can secure funding and policy influence for india, citing zionism as an example.

https://x.com/Anarseldain/status/2016887094464172457?s=20


--------------


Polish Connection
@PoleConnection
Outcomes of the India EU deal, retweeted by Modi

https://x.com/PoleConnection/status/2016384034662679026?s=20

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