Will the Mecca Pact Deter Attacks Against Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey?

Pakistan has historically enjoyed close friendly ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. So why did the three nations feel the need to formalize these ties with a mutual defense agreement in Mecca this week? Many answers to this question can all be traced to a fundamental change in the security environment in the Middle East. Foremost among these changes is the extremely reckless behavior of the state of Israel which has had full political, military, economic and diplomatic backing of the West. This unqualified western support began with the Gaza genocide and culminated in the launch of joint US-Israeli assault on Iran in February this year.  



The entire Middle East region and the Islamic world has helplessly witnessed as the Israeli military butchered innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon and threatened to expand the war to the entire region. Some Israeli politicians issued warnings to Turkey and Pakistan. During this period, the West not only failed to restrain Israel but actively supported it with funds and weapons. The United States and Britain also suppressed domestic criticism of Israel by arresting or deporting people. They went after the chief prosector and the judges of the International Criminal Court (ICC) after it issued war crimes indictments of Israeli officials for their conduct in Gaza. 

The joint Israeli-American aggression against Iran has spiraled into Iranian attacks against the US bases in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, strangling the flow of oil and gas to the rest of the world. It has caused high oil prices, negatively impacting the global economy, Pakistan has stepped in to broker a ceasefire and mediate between the United States and Iran. 

While there are many explanations and interpretations of the rationale for the Mecca Pact, there is no question that signing such a mutual defense agreement has been accelerated by the security situation created by Israeli aggression in the Middle East which was fully backed by the United States and other major western nations. It seems that the United States and its western allies have legitimized the principle of "might is right" in the Middle East. Essentially, the law of the jungle has replaced the "rules-based" world order. Hard power now matters more than ever. 

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor".  The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. In 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland. 

Combining the Turkish military-industrial capacity with Saudi economic resources and Pakistan's large military and nuclear umbrella creates a formidable deterrent to any adventurism by Israel or any other hostile power against any of these three countries. That is the fundamental value of the Mecca Pact. 

On the global stage, Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran. 

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Comment by Riaz Haq yesterday

Israel alarmed by Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan pact: ‘This alliance is aimed against us’
Israeli official questions claims the Mecca defense pact is focused on Iran and warns Egypt could join; Jerusalem is urged to deepen ties with Greece, Cyprus, India and the UAE as the Sunni axis grows stronger




https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h16pfyvuml


Israel is increasingly concerned that a new defense pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan is directed not only at Iran but also against Israel, a senior Israeli official said Monday, warning that Egypt could eventually join the alliance.


“This agreement troubles us. This is an alliance aimed against Israel,” the official said of the defense agreement signed over the weekend in Mecca.

Reports following the signing suggested Egypt could become the next country to join the emerging bloc.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the state-run Anadolu news agency that the agreement is effectively modeled on NATO’s Article 5, under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.


Fidan said the alliance would also include a ministerial committee and a general secretariat headquartered in Saudi Arabia.
The senior Israeli official said the agreement reflects a broader regional shift.
“The Shiite axis has weakened, and for a long time we have seen the Sunni axis getting stronger,” the official said. “Israel needs to build alternative alliances, especially with the Hellenic axis, Greece and Cyprus, together with India and the United Arab Emirates.”


Israel, he added, must become “very, very strong” and make other countries dependent on it.
“Israel needs a massive force-building program,” the official said.

The official singled out Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a particular concern.
“The story of Turkey and Erdogan is dangerous,” he said. “We would not be surprised if the Egyptians join the ‘Mecca Alliance.’ This alliance is aimed against Israel. Who do you think they are doing this against? Allow me to be skeptical when they say it is really aimed at Iran.”
The agreement was signed Friday during a meeting in Saudi Arabia between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Dubbed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, the pact is the result of nearly a year of negotiations among the three countries.

‘Unite against Israel’
The signing comes as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan seek greater strategic independence amid regional upheaval.
Reuters noted that although all three countries remain concerned about Iran and its proxies, they are also increasingly troubled by Israel’s military policies in the region, while doubts are growing over the ability of their longtime ally, the United States, to restrain further escalation.
Pakistan said the agreement also calls for expanding security cooperation across multiple fields.
The alliance brings together three very different powers: Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer; Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state; and Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest military and a rapidly expanding defense industry.
Turkish media said the pact is likely to lead to joint military exercises and training, as well as increased intelligence and technological cooperation.
Following the agreement, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif directly invoked Israel, calling on the Muslim world to “unite to confront the common threat posed by Israel.”
“Israel poses a threat to all of us,” Asif said. “Islamic countries must adopt a coordinated approach to confront this threat.”

Comment by Riaz Haq 50 minutes ago

Erdogan hopes for expansion of defense pact with Saudis, Pakistan, amid bid to woo Egypt | The Times of Israel

Turkish president says he aspires that deal, which currently includes Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, will include more countries in region

ISTANBUL, Ankara —  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday he hoped more countries would join a defense agreement signed last week between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan that they say is aimed at stabilizing a region wracked by conflict.

The so-called Mecca Joint Defense Agreement was signed on Friday as the Middle East grapples with fallout from the ongoing US-Iran war, which has dragged in regional players and disrupted shipping through the key energy pathways of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

“Our vision for it is not limited to the three countries,” the Turkish leader told the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat daily. “Rather, we aspire for it to grow, and perhaps appropriate conditions will emerge one day for all countries of the region to gather under its umbrella, he added.

He likely did not mean to include Israel in his reference to the region. Turkish-Israel relations, once close, collapsed after the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and subsequent war in Gaza. Erdogan frequently compares Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, accuses Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, and has consistently offered diplomatic support for Hamas.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Saturday said Turkey expected Egypt to join the pact “in the next stage,” telling the Anadolu state news agency only “a few technical issues” stood in the way.

Egypt has not commented on the agreement, nor on the remarks by Fidan, who will visit Cairo on Thursday and Friday.

Cairo has robust military cooperation with Ankara, but has given no indication it intends to sign up to the new security alliance, which contains a NATO-style clause saying any attack on one would be seen as an attack on all. Turkey is also a member of NATO.

The five-month US-Iran war, which Washington launched alongside Israel in late February, has upended the security architecture in the region and forced a rethink of decades of conventional wisdom rooted in US military supremacy.

The pact, which consolidates three major US allies into an alternative security architecture that also rejects Israel’s hegemony, seeks to boost security cooperation while also opening the way for “developing joint projects in the defense industries,” Erdogan said.

Along with Turkey, Pakistan has also upped its rhetorical attacks on Israel in recent months, with its defense minister calling Israel “a threat to the entire Muslim world,” and urging a “united military front” against it in Saturday comments.

Since the onset of the war, Saudi Arabia has grown closer to Turkey, with whom it previously had fraught ties, with Erdogan saying Ankara and Riyadh would “take steps that will elevate relations between the two countries to much higher levels,” without giving further details.

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    Pakistan has historically enjoyed close friendly ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. So why did the three nations feel the need to formalize these ties with a mutual defense agreement in Mecca this week? Many answers to this question can all be traced to a fundamental change in the security environment in the Middle East. Foremost among these changes is the extremely reckless behavior of the state of Israel which has had full political, military, economic and diplomatic backing of the…

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