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Can Pakistan's Small Nuclear Arsenal Survive India's First Strike?
Possession of nuclear weapons is considered "the ultimate deterrent" by eminent international geopolitical analysts like Professor John Mearsheimer of Chicago University. However, it appears that Mearsheimer has also raised questions about the survivability of a small land-based nuclear arsenal in the event of a first strike by a nuclear-armed adversary. Is this likely to tempt India to launch first strike against Pakistan's nuclear assets?
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| Pakistan's Nuclear Triad |
In Mearsheimer's broader deterrence framework, small, land-based nuclear forces are inherently vulnerable to a disarming conventional or nuclear first strike. Because Pakistan’s arsenal is primarily land-based (alongside air-delivered systems), a major Indian military breakthrough or precision strike campaign could threaten the survivability of those weapons. This creates dangerous pressure on Islamabad to deploy or use its nuclear weapons early in a crisis rather than risk losing them.
Pakistan's worries are reinforced by a Stimson Center poll that vast majority of Indians, including those who oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi, believe that nuclear war is "winnable". The respondents want their country to build a bigger nuclear arsenal than China and Pakistan combined. Responding to the clamor for more nukes, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in 2019 that Indian nuclear weapons were not kept as mere showpieces. Strong belief about India's ability to win a nuclear war against Pakistan cuts across party lines with 91% of those who support Mr. Modi and 85% of those who don't.
These fears about the possibility of Indian first strike have forced Pakistan to build a full-spectrum deterrence, including a "nuclear triad" with air and sea-based launch capability to retaliate against India's first strike. Much of Pakistan's nuclear force utilizes mobile launchers (such as the Shaheen and Ghauri series) that can disperse and hide across varied terrain during a crisis, complicating an adversary's targeting. Pakistan has also constructed deeply buried and hardened underground storage and launch facilities to protect warheads and command structures from a disabling attack.
By having a survivable nuclear deterrent, Pakistan can drastically reduce the likelihood of major war with India because the cost of mutual destruction would be too high. A region such as South Asia where both states have a survivable deterrent would be stable.
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Comment by Riaz Haq 1 hour ago
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On October 26, 2006, a Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Song-class (Type 039, same as Pakistan’s Hangor Class AIP-equipped) diesel-electric attack submarine surfaced undetected within five nautical miles of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63) while it was operating with its strike group east of Okinawa, Japan. [1, 2, 3]
Key Details of the Incident
The Stalking and Surface: The Chinese submarine shadowed the U.S. carrier battle group—which included a dozen surface combatants, an attack submarine, and anti-submarine helicopters—without being detected by the fleet's defensive screen. It then surfaced within torpedo range (inside 5 miles) before being spotted visually by a routine aircraft surveillance flight. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Why it wasn't detected: The Song-class is a diesel-electric submarine that runs on quiet battery power during slow operations, producing very low acoustic signatures compared to nuclear-powered submarines that U.S. anti-submarine warfare (ASW) systems were primarily tuned to find. [1, 2]
Strategic Impact: Viewed as a watershed moment for China's naval modernization, the event shocked U.S. military planners and demonstrated the growing capability of non-nuclear submarines to challenge surface action groups in the Western Pacific. [1, 2]
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Pakistan’s Hangor-class submarine is an export variant based on China’s Type 039 (specifically the Type 039A/B or Yuan-class/S26 design). [1, 2, 3]
Key Details:
Base Design: It is developed by China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) as a derivative of the Chinese Type 039B / Yuan-class diesel-electric attack submarine. [1, 2]
Propulsion: It features a Stirling-cycle Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, allowing it to stay submerged for much longer periods than traditional diesel-electric boats. [1, 2]
Production Program ("4+4" Model):
The first four submarines are built in China.
The remaining four are built locally in Pakistan at the Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW) via a technology transfer agreement. [1, 2]
Lead Vessel: The first-in-class boat, PNS Hangor, was commissioned in April 2026 and arrived in Pakistan later that summer. [1, 2
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Can Pakistan's Small Nuclear Arsenal Survive India's First Strike?
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