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Pakistan is currently classified as a lower middle-income country, with the ambition to become a high-income country. Its policymakers now recognize that no country has transitioned from middle-income to high-income status without generating substantial electricity at affordable rates. The link between energy and prosperity has been well-established since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. The AI Revolution has further reinforced it. Can Pakistan make the transition to a high-income country by developing indigenous energy resources to minimize dependence on expensive imports amid geopolitical uncertainty?
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| Pakistan Developing Indigenous Energy Sources |
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| Electricity-Income Correlation. Source: ToddMoss Substack |
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The World Bank Group released its October 2026 report titled Pakistan Development Update: Attaining Escape Velocity, which projects that Pakistan's per capita incomes could triple by 2050 if the country accelerates structural economic reforms. [1, 2]
Key Findings & Projections
Economic Growth: Real GDP growth reached 3.7% in FY26, up from 3.2% in FY25, with baseline growth projected at 3.8% for FY27 and 4.5% by FY31. [1, 2]
High-Growth Scenario: Faster, deeper structural reforms could lift annual economic growth above 6% (up to 6.9%), putting the country on a trajectory to triple average incomes by 2050. [1, 2]
Per Capita Reality: Real per capita growth remains low at roughly 1.6%, meaning stability alone is insufficient to rapidly lift living standards or create enough jobs. [1, 2]
Fiscal Progress: Higher tax collections and strict spending controls helped achieve a record primary fiscal surplus of 2.9% of GDP in FY26, while energy subsidies decreased from 1.1% of GDP in FY25 to 0.8% in FY26. Strong worker remittances also helped rebuild foreign exchange reserves. [1, 2, 3]
Required Reforms
The report emphasizes that moving past macroeconomic stabilization requires action across key areas: [1]
Tax System: Broadening and strengthening the national tax framework. [1]
Energy Sector: Continuing timely power tariff adjustments and reducing losses. [1]
State Footprint: Reducing state presence in the economy (such as privatization efforts like Pakistan International Airlines). [1]
Business & Finance: Improving the investment climate, trade liberalization under the National Tariff Policy, and expanding access to finance. [1]
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/ec77c491733d5748d019a1b905ef37...
Pakistan’s Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025–2035 envisages a substantial expansion of hydropower capacity as part of the government’s policy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, particularly imported fuels, and increase the share of indigenous renewable resources in the national energy mix. The plan envisages around 21,400 MW of additional hydropower capacity by 2035.
https://www.thenews.pk/magazine/money-matters/1433757-a-security-in...
Diamer Basha is unquestionably a project of national strategic importance, but its successful completion will require sustained attention to financing, construction management, infrastructure relocation, power-generation equipment and transmission. The latest target of October 2030 should therefore be treated as a demanding implementation milestone rather than an assurance that every component will be fully operational on that date. The dam, powerhouses, electromechanical equipment and transmission system must progress in a coordinated manner if the country is to realise the project’s full benefits.
The challenges are formidable, but so are the potential gains. Diamer Basha is designed to address three of Pakistan’s most persistent strategic vulnerabilities simultaneously: water insecurity, energy insecurity and food security. Its 6.4 MAF of live storage will strengthen the country’s water-management capacity; its 4,500MW of installed generation will add a major source of indigenous renewable electricity; and its sediment-control function will help protect the operational life of the downstream Tarbela system.
The overriding priority should therefore be to complete the project with the least possible further delay and cost escalation, while maintaining the engineering, environmental and social standards required for a project of such magnitude. For Pakistan, Diamer Basha is not simply another hydropower & dam project. It is a long-term investment in the country’s water, food and energy security.
LAHORE, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 24th Oct, 2026) The hydromechanical (HM-1) contract for the Diamer-Bhasha Dam Project has been awarded to the joint venture of Chinese company PowerChina and IKAN, according to a WAPDA spokesperson.
The HM-1 contract is worth Rs133.18 billion.
Diamer-Bhasha Dam Project Director Arif Ali and joint venture representative Ling Jianke signed the contract.
WAPDA Chairman Muhammad Saeed attended the contract-signing ceremony, the spokesperson said.
The Diamer-Bhasha Dam is being built on the Indus River, 40 kilometres south of Chilas. Upon completion, it will store 8.1 million acre-feet of water and generate 4,500 megawatts of low-cost, environment-friendly hydropower.
https://www.urdupoint.com/en/pakistan/diamer-bhasha-dam-hydromechan...
From Karakoram to Arabian Sea, Ep. 2: Ancient River, New Possibilities
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-10-25/From-Karakoram-to-Arabian-Sea...
https://youtu.be/f0kuZMiExMw?is=kRjDvJWRQfpavJvQ
From the towering Karakoram mountains in the north to the shores of the Arabian Sea in the south, join CGTN's Danial Khan on a 12-part journey across Pakistan, following the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Along the way, the series explores the infrastructure, industries and communities at the heart of Pakistan's development, as well as the growing cooperation between China and Pakistan.
In this episode, Danial follows the Indus River, the cradle of the ancient Indus Valley Civilization and a lifeline for communities across Pakistan for thousands of years. Today, its waters remain vital to the country's agriculture, water security and energy supply. At the Diamer-Bhasha Dam and Dasu Hydropower Project, he meets Pakistani, Chinese and other international workers joining forces to harness the river's potential. From construction sites and underground tunnels to laboratories and project camps, the journey explores the engineering challenges, international cooperation and human stories behind these projects. It also looks at how hydropower could shape Pakistan's clean energy future and how women are contributing to this effort.
Pakistan accelerates four major dam projects amid growing water security concerns
https://www.arabnews.pk/pakistan/pakistan-accelerates-four-major-da...
Projects including Diamer-Bhasha Dam, Mohmand Dam, Kurram Tangi Dam and Nai Gaj Dam are expected to improve water availability
Pakistan’s water resources are under growing pressure from erratic rainfall and rapidly melting glaciers linked to climate change pressures
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has accelerated work on four dam projects that are expected to add more than eight million acre-feet (MAF) of water storage capacity, state media reported, as the country seeks to strengthen water security amid growing climate-related challenges.
The projects include the Diamer-Bhasha Dam, Mohmand Dam, Kurram Tangi Dam, and the Nai Gaj Dam, according to the Associated Press of Pakistan (APP). The dams are expected to improve water availability, enhance flood management, and boost hydropower generation capacity.
Pakistan’s water resources are under increasing pressure from erratic rainfall patterns and the rapid melting of glaciers linked to climate change. Officials have repeatedly warned that the country faces a widening gap between water supply and demand, making additional storage infrastructure a national priority.
“Currently, four major projects with a combined live storage capacity of 8.136 MAF are under implementation,” APP said in a report on Saturday.
“These include the strategically important Diamer-Bhasha Dam, which alone will provide 6.4 MAF of storage capacity, along with Mohmand Dam with 0.676 MAF, Kurram Tangi Dam with 0.90 MAF and Nai Gaj Dam with 0.16 MAF.”
Pakistan’s three main reservoirs are Tarbela Dam, with a live storage capacity of 5.580 MAF, Mangla Dam with 7.277 MAF, and Chashma Barrage with 0.311 MAF, it added.
The report highlighted that the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) designated the current period as the “Decade of Dams”, accelerating major water infrastructure projects to bolster water security amid climate change and rising demand.
The report said reservoir projects with a combined live storage capacity of 15.88 MAF were in the planning and design stages including Sindh Barrage (2.0 MAF), Shyok Dam (5.5 MAF), Akhori Dam (7.0 MAF), Chiniot Dam (0.93 MAF) and Murunj Dam (0.45 MAF).
It added that WAPDA also expanded its hydro-meteorological monitoring and telemetry systems to provide real-time data on river flows, transboundary streams, reservoir levels, and rainfall.
In April, the government said Pakistan had water storage capacity equivalent to about 90 days of demand and announced plans for a high-level task force meeting to address mounting water security concerns.
Last year, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called for urgent construction of reservoirs and dams after swollen rivers devastated the breadbasket of the country’s most populous Punjab province.
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Pakistan is currently classified as a lower middle-income country, with the ambition to become a high-income country. Its policymakers now recognize that no country has transitioned from middle-income to high-income status without generating substantial electricity at affordable rates. The link between energy and prosperity has been well-established since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. The AI Revolution has further reinforced it. Can Pakistan make the…
ContinuePosted by Riaz Haq on October 21, 2026 at 6:00pm — 8 Comments
With the expansion of the internet access in rural areas, several local language AI applications have recently been launched for downloads by farmers in Pakistan. These apps help with crop planning, soil sensing, personalized fertilizer recommendations, disease diagnoses, weather forecasts and market prices. A couple of these have been downloaded by half a million or more farmers in the country. Some of these apps use open source large language models (LLMs) like…
ContinuePosted by Riaz Haq on October 14, 2026 at 1:00pm — 5 Comments
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