Managing Droughts and Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan has increasingly been suffering from cycles of severe droughts followed by massive floods in the last few years. This recurring pattern of shortage and excess of water gives us a preview of the growing challenge of climate change. This situation calls for a comprehensive water management effort to deal with a potentially existential threat to Pakistan.

Flood-Drought Cycles:

Before the summer floods of 2010, the Indus had turned into a muddy puddle in parts of Sindh. Britain's Financial Times reported at the the time that "angry farmers marched through villages in Sindh demanding access to water. Those who can no longer turn a profit in the fields are increasingly resorting to banditry or migrating to urban shanties".

Earlier, there was a 2009 report by the Woodrow Wilson International Center saying that the melting Himalayan glaciers have exacerbated Pakistan’s shortages. And the World Bank warned that Pakistan could face a “terrifying” 30-40 per cent drop in river flows in 100 year’s time. Now large parts of Sindh are under water for the second year in a row, destroying lives and standing crops.

Growing Water Scarcity:



According to the United Nations' World Water Development Report, the total actual renewable water resources in Pakistan decreased from 2,961 cubic meters per capita in 2000 to 1,420 cubic meters in 2005. A more recent study indicates an available supply of water of little more than 1,000 cubic meters per person, which puts Pakistan in the category of a high stress country. Using data from the Pakistan's federal government's Planning and Development Division, the overall water availability has decreased from 1,299 cubic meters per capita in 1996-97 to 1,101 cubic meters in 2004-05. In view of growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. If the current trends continue, it could go as lows as 550-cubic meters by 2025. Nevertheless, excessive mining of groundwater goes on. Despite a lowering water table, the annual growth rate of electric tubewells has been 6.7% and for diesel tubewells about 7.4%. In addition, increasing pollution and saltwater intrusion threaten the country's water resources. About 36% of the groundwater is classified as highly saline.

So what can Pakistan do to manage these disastrous cycles of floods and droughts?

1. Build Dams and Dykes:



As the flood disaster takes its toll yet again, there are reports of USAID and ADB considering funding the $12 billion Bhasha Dam in Pakistan. The project is located on Indus River, about 200 miles upstream of the existing Tarbela Dam, 100 miles downstream from the Northern Area capital Gilgit in Gilgit-Baltistan region. The dam's reservoir would hold so much water that it could have averted last year's devastating floods. It would also provide enough electricity to end Pakistan's crippling shortages, according to a report in the Guardian newspaper. The massive dam on the Indus river would provide 4,500MW of renewable energy, making up for a shortfall causing up to 12 hours of load shedding on daily basis across Pakistan. The reservoir would be 50 miles long, holding 8.5 MAF (million acre feet) of water.

In addition to large dams, there is also a need to build and maintain dykes and start other flood-control projects in flood-prone areas like Badin and Thatta in Sindh.

2. Conserve Water:

Building Bhasha and several other proposed dams will help in dealing with water scarcity, but the growing population will continue put pressure on the vital resource.



Serious conservation steps need to be taken to improve the efficiency of water use in Pakistani agriculture which claims almost all of the available fresh water resources. A California study recently found that water use efficiency ranged from 60%-85% for surface irrigation to 70%-90% for sprinkler irrigation and 88%-90% for drip irrigation. Potential savings would be even higher if the technology switch were combined with more precise irrigation scheduling and a partial shift from lower-value, water-intensive crops to higher-value, more water-efficient crops. Rather than flood irrigation method currently used in Pakistani agriculture, there is a need to explore the use of drip or spray irrigation to make better use of nation's scarce water resources before it is too late. As a first step toward improving efficiency, Pakistan government launched in 2006 a US $1.3 billion drip irrigation program that could help reduce water waste over the next five years. Early results are encouraging. "We installed a model drip irrigation system here that was used to irrigate cotton and the experiment was highly successful. The cotton yield with drip irrigation ranged 1,520 kg to 1,680 kg per acre compared to 960 kg from the traditional flood irrigation method," according to Wajid Ishaq, a junior scientist at the Nuclear Institute for Agriculture and Biology(NIAB).





Beyond the government-funded experiments, there is a drip irrigation company called Micro Drip which is funded by the Acumen Fund. Micro Drip develops and provides products and services as poverty alleviation solutions to small farmers in Pakistan’s arid regions. It provides a complete drip irrigation system along with agricultural training and after-sales support to enable farmers to extract a higher yield from their land at a much lower cost of input.

So what is holding up Pakistan's progress on water management?

1. Lack of Funds:

Pakistani government revenues continue to be limited by slow economic growth and widespread culture of tax evasion. The biggest culprits are the ruling feudal politicians who oppose any attempt to levy taxes on their farm income. The limited resources the state does have are usually squandered on political patronage doled out to ruling politicians' supporters in the form of capricious grants, huge loans (defaulted with impunity), and plum jobs in bloated government and the money-losing state-owned enterprises. The result of this blatant abuse, waste and fraud is that the budget allocations for vital long-term investments in education, health care and infrastructure development projects are regularly slashed thereby shortchanging the future of the nation.

2. Corruption and Security Concerns:

The NY Times recently reported that "Washington’s fears of Pakistani corruption and incompetence has slowed disbursal of the money". The story reinforces the widely-held view that even after the funding is arranged, the corrupt and incompetent politicians and their hand-picked civilian administrators make any development progress slow and difficult. Such problems are further exacerbated by significant security issues in parts of the country severely plagued by ongoing militancy.

Existential Threat:

The Taliban who get all the coverage do not pose an existential threat to Pakistan. Generations of military families have periodically fought FATA insurgencies. For example, Shuja Nawaz, the author of Crossed Swords says that his grandfather, his uncle and his cousin have all been deployed in Waziristan by the British and later Pakistani governments in the last century and a half. American withdrawal from the region will eventually calm the situation in Waziristan, and the rest of the country.

Climate change and the growing water scarcity are the main long-term existential threats to Pakistan and the region. Water per capita is already down below 1000 cubic meters and declining
What Pakistan needs are major 1960s style investments for a second Green Revolution to avoid the specter of mass starvation and political upheaval it will bring.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Growing Water Scarcity in Pakistan

Political Patronage in Pakistan

Corrupt and Incompetent Politicians

Pakistan's Energy Crisis

Culture of Tax Evasion and Aid Dependence

Climate Change in South Asia

US Senate Report on Avoiding Water Wars in Central and South Asia

Views: 2038

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 25, 2022 at 9:53am

Tarbela Dam is 96 feet away from touching its maximum level of 1550 feet as it has already attained level of 1494 feet on Friday against 1398 feet a day earlier, said sources from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40186234


They said the Dam had registered a gain of 96 feet in last 10 days. It may be noted that the Dam was at the level of 1405 feet on 1st of July when monsoon weather had hit the country. In other words, said the sources, the Dam was possessing one percent storage of its total capacity on 1st of May which has risen to 49.34 percent on Friday. The dam has been filled by half, they added.

Mangla Dam, on the other hand, was carrying 4.57 percent storage of its capacity, which has reached 13.24 percent on Friday. So far as the water level is concerned, Mangla was at the level of 1098 feet, which has reached 1126.7 feet. The maximum conservation level of Mangla Dam is 1242 feet.

Director PMD Shahid Abbas confirmed the development, saying that Mangla has been filled by 13 percent and Tarbela by 49 percent. According to him, Tarbela could be filled to the maximum conservation level before 20th of July as there is no need of irrigation water for the agriculture of Sindh and Balochistan provinces due to heavy spells of rains.

At present, he said, 150,000 cusecs water is being released from the dam on daily basis, which is more than the agricultural need of the two provinces. The other purpose being met by this huge release of water is to generation of some 3000 plus megawatt electricity from the Dam, he added.

According to him, since the relevant authorities have no idea as how water is expected from the hilly sources, therefore, they are not in a hurry to fill it up. An early filling up of this dam may lead to heavy release of water in case of flood like situation after heavy rains in the hilly areas, he added. He said, another reason of releasing excessive water is the non-availability of storage capacity. He said the water being released at present is enough to fill another two dams of similar capacity in the country.

Meanwhile, the monsoon waves have proceeded to Sindh, particularly Karachi, to shower rain from Saturday night. Also, Director PMD said, the current monsoon waves would bring heavy downpour in Balochistan and lower parts of Southern Punjab for the next three days. The monsoon waves are likely to revert to the catchment areas of all the five rivers from 20th July until 22nd of July, including central Punjab and upper parts of the country.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 22, 2022 at 2:34pm

Rain in Thar means food and water for all living creatures. The recent monsoon rains have transformed Sindh’s thirsty Thar desert and its sandy land into a lush blanket of wild grass, and the local farmers are ready to cultivate their land.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1704697

Thar is the sixth largest desert in the world and covers 22,000 square kilometres. Over 900 square kilometres of this land is made up of wildlife sanctuaries. As the sun rises over Thar’s dunes, you can hear the tinkling of small and large bells around the necks of the cows, goats and sheep. Peacocks flutter their mesmerising feathers and wild birds chirp in the cool breeze.

The monsoon brings abundant water not only for livestock but also for the different inhabitants of the region, including night owls, eagles, falcons, rabbits, reptiles, snakes, lizards, deer and endangered vultures.

Most farmers, including Meghwar, still employ traditional farming methods, using donkeys and camels. Fifty-year-old farmer Manthar Nohari’s land is near Meghwar’s farm, and both believe that donkey or camel-driven farming is much more conducive to soil fertility.

On a breezy July morning, Nohari drops millet and cluster bean seeds on his farm using a tube-like tool, locally known as narri. “It is an environment-friendly method of cultivation,” he says.

“Thar needs maximum rainfall for a bumper production of crop, which includes fodder for cattle. We will be ready to harvest major crops such as bajra [pearl millet], guar [cluster bean], moong [mung bean] and keerray saim [moth bean] in three months.”

But, in just a month, fruits and vegetables such as guar, mushrooms, tinda [apple gourd], watermelons, snap melons and wild melons will already be available in the local markets in Mithi, Chhachhro, Diplo, Chelhar, Islamkot, Nagarparkar, Daheli and other adjacent areas in the neighbouring Umerkot and Mirpurkhas districts.

“Rain has revived natural ponds and wells, and we are also collecting rainwater in tanks and reservoirs,” says Danish Kumar, a young student, from Charhail. “It will last us for three to four months for drinking and domestic use.”

WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH

During the dry period, usually from December to May, Tharis survive on the grasses and residue that they have earlier plucked, dried and stored.

“Now that it has rained, fodder is available in abundance,” says Harish Jaipal. “Later in the month, we will collect it to feed the cattle during grass shortage or drought. This way we won’t need to purchase fodder.”

But while this month the climate may have been on their side, that is not always the case. Every year, scores of people are driven to climate migration within Sindh in search of fodder and livelihood because of extreme weather, chronic water shortages and a lack of opportunities.

“Five months ago, I moved with my family and cattle to the Kotri barrage area,” says Allah Danu, a herdsman who owns 30 cows. “But after heavy rains in Thar, we are going back home,” he says. For Allah Danu, who earns a living by selling milk, the desert will always be his home.

But for most of the year it can be an inhospitable home. If it weren’t, many would not move away. Meghwar is happy with the harvest this year. “We will not have to migrate to Kotri barrage [this year] for fodder and growing food,” he says.

Even when nature is on the side of local Tharis, they continue to face other challenges. They are still battling the issue of illegal encroachment of grasslands by powerful landlords, which deplete fodder resources and cause huge losses to those who don’t own land and rely on livestock as a source of income.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 31, 2022 at 9:02pm

The groundwater system underneath Pakistan’s flowing rivers in the Indus plains has at least 400 million acre feet (MAF) of pristine water. This storage is so large that it is equivalent to more than three years of the mean annual flow of the Indus (or 1,000 days of storage, after excluding polluted areas). This should now be seriously considered in the mainstream planning of Pakistan’s water resources.

https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/climate/pakistans-riverine-aquifers-may-save-its-future/


More than a thousand years ago, Alberuni wrote, “India has once been a sea which by degrees has been filled up by the alluvium of the streams.” This view was later endorsed in the late 19th century by Austrian geologist Eduard Suess, who named the sea ‘Tethys Ocean’. Mike Searle, in his 2013 book Colliding Continents explains that the Himalayas resulted from collision of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate 50 million years ago.

The Indus river and its Sutlej tributary both existed prior to this collision and drained into the Tethys Ocean. The collision gradually closed the sea and the remnants of the Tethys were filled by the material of eroding mountains deposited by the flowing rivers.

The Indus rivers have carried huge silt loads for millions of years, depositing them in the plains all the way to the delta. In their 1988 book, Irrigated Agriculture of Pakistan, Nazir Ahmad and Ghulam Rasul Chaudhry explained that high sediment loads in the Indus river system have created nearly 200,000 square kilometres of flatlands. These flatlands, to a considerable depth, are made up of unconsolidated and granular formations, capable of holding large volumes of water. “This reservoir of water is so vast, it ranks among the natural wonders of the world,” the authors write as they describe the groundwater resources of the Indus basin.

Aloys Arthur Michel, in his 1967 book, The Indus Rivers, describes these alluvial deposits as unconsolidated material, deeper than one mile, forming a large homogeneous groundwater reservoir with a capacity “at least ten times the annual runoff of the Indus rivers”.

This begs the question, that if we knew about this groundwater storage potential for decades, why has it never been discussed in the mainstream planning for sustainable exploitation to benefit the inhabitants of the Indus basin?

The reasons could have been many. The military dictatorship in place at the time of the signing of the Indus Water Treaty set a future discourse on the harnessing of surface waters only; a drift into debt economy and the lure of easy dollars in mega infrastructure projects for water; interest groups pushing large dams in the 1950s and 60s – an era when the whole world was going on a binge of building large dams; a lack of capacity at home to scrutinise proposals being advised by foreign ‘experts’ with vested interests; the obvious advantages of the visibility of big structures which can be loudly publicised in political arenas and so on. The result was that Pakistan chose the path of building mega-dams, river diversions and gravity-based flood irrigation systems. In doing so, we severely deteriorated our aquifers through waterlogging, salinity, unmanaged abstractions and indiscriminate pollution.

But that was the past. Is it possible to pursue a different path now?

Water quality

First, given the fact that this vast aquifer sits on top of a filled-up sea, its deeper formations are naturally saline. In the northern parts of the alluvial plains, the aquifer may hold sweet water up to a depth of a thousand feet or so, but as one moves south, the depth of sweet water gradually reduces.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 11, 2023 at 4:23pm

SenatorSherryRehman
@sherryrehman
Good news for Pakistan! Our Recharge Pakistan project, which will be implemented over the next 7 years, has been approved today for funding of 77.8 M USD. These include GCF resources of 66 M USD and co-financing of around USD 11.8 M. This adaptation project aims to initiate ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) interventions that will store flood water in wetlands, floodplains and depressions (green infrastructure) at several priority sites, build community resilience at these sites, and enable the Government of Pakistan, including all lead provinces and stakeholders to implement & replicate such nature-based solutions for climate resilience.

https://twitter.com/sherryrehman/status/1678625444176822275?s=20

--------

Funding of $77.8 million has been approved for Recharge Pakistan, a project that aims to build the country’s climate resilience and water security, Federal Minister for Climate Change Sherry Rehman announced on Tuesday.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40252003/778mn-funding-secured-for-r...

“Good news for Pakistan! Our Recharge Pakistan project, which will be implemented over the next seven years, has been approved today for funding of $77.8mn,” said Rehman in a post on Twitter.

The minister highlighted that the funding includes $66 million from Green Climate Fund (GCF) resources and co-financing of around $11.8 million.

GCF was established in 2010 by 194 countries party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is designed as an operating entity of the Convention’s financial mechanism and is headquartered in South Korea.

“This adaptation project aims to initiate ecosystem-based adaptation interventions that will store flood water in wetlands, floodplains and depressions (green infrastructure) at several priority sites,” said Rehman.

Recharge Pakistan is a joint collaboration by GCF, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Government of Pakistan. As per information available on the WWF website, the project aims to build Pakistan’s climate resilience and water security through cost-effective ecosystem-based adaptation.

“The project will increase water storage and recharge through wetlands, floodplains, and hill-torrents management; promote climate-adapted community-based natural resource management and livelihoods; and forge a paradigm shift to scale up this approach,” read the website.

Last week, Rehman during a high-level meeting with a delegation led by Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President-designate of COP28 and UAE’s Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, said a “critical gap” in resources for adaptation and mitigation has been identified by multilateral agencies -amounting to $348 billion or 10.7% of cumulative GDP by 2030.

Despite this, Pakistan is committed to a green energy transition, whereby it will transfer 60% of its energy needs to renewables by 2030 and reduce its projected emissions by 50% until 2030, Rehman said.

Pakistan is actively involved in transitioning the country towards the renewable energy sector and is seeking partnerships in the alternative and renewable energy sector, the minister added.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 28, 2023 at 9:41pm

Recharge Pakistan Project receives $77.8 million funding boost from the Green Climate Fund, United States Agency for International Development, The Coca-Cola Foundation and World Wildlife Fund | Press Releases | WWF


https://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/recharge-pakistan-proj...

The new 7-year project brings together a broad set of funders to help reduce the vulnerability of people and ecosystems in Pakistan to the impacts of climate change following the devastating floods of the past year—which submerged one-third of the country and displaced millions. In addition to the GCF funding, the project is supported through a further $12 million investment and technical support from, collectively, The Coca-Cola Foundation, The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and WWF-Pakistan.

The project represents a deep commitment to addressing climate impacts in vulnerable communities and will transform the country’s approach to flood and water resource management in local watershed sites in the Indus Basin river system. Further, by taking a nature-based approach to the problem, it will create benefits to communities beyond climate resilience.

“Recent years have brought an unprecedented series of climate disasters that touched every corner of the globe. The 2022 floods in Pakistan were among the most searing and severe. Our hearts go out to all who lost friends and loved ones,” said Carter Roberts, President and CEO of WWF-US. “The funding announced by the GCF alongside the commitments from The Coca-Cola Foundation and USAID marks a decisive step towards addressing the challenges faced by communities experiencing climate impacts first and worst. And while no intervention can fully protect against future climate disasters, the nature-based solutions funded through this investment will help local communities in Pakistan restore what was lost and build resilience to help withstand our shared climate future. WWF thanks the Government of Pakistan and looks forward to working with them and partners to implement this important initiative.”

Recharge Pakistan is a collaboration among: Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC); the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) under the Ministry of Water Resources; local communities in DI Khan, the Ramak Watershed, and Manchar Lake; GCF; USAID; The Coca-Cola Foundation; and World Wildlife Fund (WWF). The program encompasses three vital components: demonstrating the effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure, promoting its adoption via an improved enabling environment, and enhancing community resilience in Pakistan's Indus Basin. This will be achieved through:

Restoration and reforestation of 14,215 hectares of forests and wetlands
Rehabilitation 34 km of water flow paths and channels
Development of 127 recharge basins and retention areas
Strengthening the climate resilience of 7 local businesses in the agriculture and forests sectors
Together, project interventions will directly benefit more than 680,000 people and indirectly benefit more than 7 million people.

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