Comment by Riaz Haq on June 17, 2025 at 3:59pm

India’s Great-Power Delusions
How New Delhi’s Grand Strategy Thwarts Its Grand Ambitions
Ashley J. Tellis

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/indias-great-power-delusions

Since the turn of the century, the United States has sought to help India rise as a great power.

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In military terms, it is the most significant conventional power in South Asia, but here, too, its advantages over its local rival are not enormous: in fighting in May, Pakistan used Chinese-supplied defense systems to shoot down Indian aircraft. With China on one side and an adversarial Pakistan on the other, India must always fear the prospect of an unpalatable two-front war. Meanwhile, at home, the country is shedding one of its main sources of strength—its liberal democracy—by embracing Hindu nationalism. This evolution could undermine India’s rise by intensifying communal tensions and exacerbating problems with its neighbors, forcing it to redirect security resources inward to the detriment of outward power projection. The country’s illiberal pivot further undermines the rules-based international order that has served it so well.

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An illiberal India is also likely to be less powerful. The BJP’s policies have polarized India along ideological and religious lines, and the unresolved issues about how India’s changing demography is to be represented in parliament threaten to exacerbate regional and linguistic divisions. This makes India look increasingly like the highly divided United States. Polarization has been bad enough for Americans, hobbling their institutions and fueling democratic decay. But it will be even worse for India, where the state and society are much weaker. Polarization, for example, could intensify the armed rebellions against New Delhi that have long been underway, creating opportunities for outside powers to sow chaos within India’s borders. Those conflicts could also spill over into India’s neighborhood, as the ideological animus against Muslims exacerbates tensions with both Bangladesh and Pakistan. Polarization would also increase India’s internal security burdens, consuming resources that New Delhi needs to project influence abroad. And even if polarization does not create more internal troubles, it will undermine New Delhi’s efforts to mobilize its population in accumulating national power.

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The United States has tolerated these Indian behaviors in the past in part because both countries were largely liberal democracies. As both proceed down the path of illiberalism, however, they will no longer be tied by shared values. Transactional habits may come to dominate the relationship, and Washington could demand more of New Delhi as the price of partnership. Trump’s approach to India in his second term has already signaled such an evolution. Indeed, India’s inability to match China in the future, as well as its commitment to multipolarity, which is fundamentally at odds with American interests, will be deeply inconvenient for the United States. India, it seems, will partner with the United States on some things involving China, but it is unlikely to partner with Washington in every significant arena—even when it comes to Beijing.

If New Delhi cannot effectively balance Beijing in Asia, Washington will invariably wonder how many resources and how much faith it should invest in India. A liberal United States might continue to support a liberal India because helping it would be inherently worthwhile (provided that the costs were not prohibitive and New Delhi’s success still served some American interests). But if either India or the United States remains illiberal, there will be no ideological reason for the latter to help the former.

Comment by Riaz Haq 18 hours ago

Indian Tejas fighter jet crashes in a ball of fire at Dubai Airshow, killing pilot | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-home-built-fighter-jet-t...

NEW DELHI/DUBAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - An Indian Tejas fighter jet crashed in a ball of fire in front of horrified spectators during an aerial display at the Dubai Airshow on Friday, and the Indian Air Force said it was setting up a court of inquiry to investigate the cause.

Video from the site showed black smoke rising behind a fenced airstrip. Dubai's government shared a photograph of firefighting teams dousing smouldering wreckage.

Jignesh Variya, 46, who was attending the show with his family, told Reuters the fighter jet had been flying for no more than eight or nine minutes and completed two to three laps when it went into a nose-dive, before flattening out but continuing to lose altitude and crashing at around 2:15 p.m. (1015 GMT).

"I could see three different fireballs when it collided with the ground," he said. "Everybody in the crowd stood up there on their feet, and then maybe in around 30 seconds, the emergency vehicles rushed over to the location at the crash site."

CRASH HAPPENED ON FINAL DAY OF AIRSHOW
It was the second known crash of the single-engine 4.5-generation fighter jet, which is built by state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HIAE.NS), opens new tab and powered by General Electric GE.N engines. The first crash was during an exercise in India in 2024.

The homegrown jet, whose name means "brilliance" in Sanskrit, is seen as crucial for India's efforts to modernise its air force fleet of mainly Russian and ex-Soviet fighters.
The crash happened during the last day of the airshow, the Middle East's largest aviation event, which started on Monday. Flying had resumed later on Friday, witnesses said, with jets back in the sky above the show site.
"A court of inquiry is being constituted to ascertain the cause of the accident," the Indian Air Force said in a statement. It confirmed the sole pilot had been killed.

The UAE aviation authority was not immediately available to comment on whether it would lead a local investigation. The Indian embassy said it was in touch with UAE authorities. Experts stressed it was too early to say what caused the crash.

GE said in a statement it was ready to support the investigation.
Dubai's government said emergency teams were managing the situation on-site.

First manufactured in 2001 but dating back to studies first carried out two decades earlier, the Tejas was designed as a light combat jet to replace India's fleet of Russian MiG-21s.

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