Poll: Musharraf Hits New Low
By Riaz Haq
http://riazhaq.blogspot.com

A new poll in Pakistan conducted by the US-based International
Republican Institute shows President Musharraf's opposition receiving
support from 72% of respondents. Only 15% of the poll participants
approve of Mr. Musharraf, lowest ever positive rating registered for
him to date. The sympathy wave for PPP in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's
assassination has lifted it to 50% of the respondents voting for it,
with PML (Nawaz Sharif) at 22%. This poll of 3,845 adults was
conducted Jan 19-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.69%,
reports the Washington Post in today's edition. Only 14% said they
planned to vote for PML-Q, the main pro-Musharraf party.

While this poll result does not augur well for pro-Musharraf forces,
there are questions about the sample size, the regional differences,
and the presence of other smaller ethnic parties affecting the final
outcome in terms of the number of parliamentary seats won by PPP, PML
(N), PML (Q), MQM and ANP. Similar polls have notoriously failed to
correctly predict the outcome in the recent primaries in the US.

In answer to the question "Would you say the ruling coalition has done a good enough job to deserve re-election", 29% of the respondents said yes, 62% said no and the rest did not know or did not answer. This suggests that there's some ambivalence among 10-20 % of the people in this sample as to who to vote for.

Based on this poll, it is likely that PPP will emerge as the single
largest party, though not necessarily with 50% of the seats. The rest
of the seats will probably be won by PML(N), PML(Q) , MQM, JUI, and ANP in that
order. The composition of the future government will likely depend on
whether the traditional rivals in the PML(N) and the PPP can really
work together and reach an accommodation with Musharraf, at least for
a while.

The fear still remains that, if the results are substantially
different from this expected outcome, the predictable mass protests in
Pakistan will succeed in upending the entire nation and its economy
with severe negative, long term consequences for Pakistan.
Such a situation could lead to another military takeover and Martial
Law setting the political process back. It is in the best interest of
all Pakistani leaders to show flexibility in the interest of advancing
the political process without repeating the vicious cycle Pakistan has
been in for the last 50 years.