Comment by Riaz Haq on December 15, 2022 at 9:11pm

Pakistan becomes first beneficiary of Saudi program for skilled workers

https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2165556/pakistan


Under verification scheme, Pakistani workers can get contracts directly from Saudi companies without needing sponsor
Saudi envoy says 12 examination centers have been established in eight Pakistani cities to conduct tests of skilled workers
ISLAMABAD: Saudi Arabia on Monday launched a skill verification program in Pakistan, with the South Asia nation becoming the first beneficiary of Riyadh's new scheme for skilled workers.

Under the newly launched program, a dozen examination centers will conduct written and practical tests of skilled workers in Pakistan before they could apply for a Saudi work visa.

Saudi Arabia is home to more than 2.5 million Pakistani expatriates and one of the biggest sources of remittances to Pakistan.

Saad Aiaqil, director-general of the Saudi skill verification program, said Pakistan was the first country to utilize the skilled workers' scheme.

“We have a very strong strategic relationship with Pakistan and have selected it as the first country to start this program,” he told Arab News at the program's launch in Islamabad on Monday.

The initiative is aimed at ensuring skilled workforce comes to the kingdom, Aiaqil said.

“In the first phase we have selected five occupations for the program and these five have further 160 smaller categories for the workers,” he added.

Nawaf bin Said Al-Malki, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Pakistan, said he was pleased at the launch of the program in Pakistan.

"Twelve examination centers have been established in collaboration with [Pakistan's] National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTCC) in eight different cities to conduct tests,” the envoy said. “In the first phase of the program, five occupations were selected including electrician, plumbing, welding, refrigeration/air conditioning, and auto electrician.”

The Saudi government was trying to provide best opportunities to Pakistani workers through the new program as the verified workers would be considered "more credible and useful" for Saudi firms, to Al-Malki added.

“There are a lot of projects in the kingdom going on and this is a very good opportunity for the Pakistani labor to get a job in Saudi Arabia,” he said. “This will benefit workers as well because there would be no need of a kafala (sponsor) now and through this program, there would be a direct contract between workers and the company,” he said, referring to the kafala system that generally binds a migrant worker to one employer.

Sajid Hussain Turi, federal minister for overseas Pakistanis, welcomed the Saudi initiative and vowed to provide maximum workers to the kingdom under the program.

“Pakistan welcomes the initiative and we hope it will provide better opportunities to the Pakistani labor market,” he said.

The minister said around 6 million Pakistanis had contributed to Saudi Arabia's development in various fields over the last 50 years and now his ministry would try to provide Pakistani workers with the best training so that they could benefit from the new Saudi scheme.

“Saudi Arabia is starting many mega projects under Vision 2030 like Neom, Taif city project, and development in Makkah, so we hope that a large number of Pakistani workers would be able to get employment there,” the minister said.

In 2020, Saudi Arabia announced new plans to ease foreign workers’ contractual restrictions, abolishing a seven-decade-old sponsorship system known as kafala.

The plans, which took effect in March 2021, aim to make the Saudi labour market more attractive by granting foreign workers the right to change jobs and leave the country without employers’ permission.

Saudi Arabia is seeking to boost its private sector, part of an ambitious plan to diversify its oil-dependent economy. The country's Vision 2030 reform plan is a package of economic and social policies designed to free the kingdom from reliance on oil exports.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 15, 2022 at 9:13pm

Economy of Pakistan

Pakistanis who left Pakistan.
Data by Bureau of Emigration

Thread highlight key points:

People leaving Pakistan by year

2022: 765,000
2021: 225,000
2020: 288,000
2019: 625,876

Previous two years had a slow down due to COVID-19



*2022 details:*
Graduates: 92,000
Trained Workers: 350,000
Drivers: 213,000
Remaining are untrained or no data available.

*Graduates/highly skilled:*
Technicians: 21,517
Associate Engineers: 18,000
Computer Operators: 12,000
Accountants: 6,650
Engineers: 5,534
Doctors: 2500
Computer Scientists: 2000
Teachers: 900

*By Pak region:*
Punjab: 424,000
KP: 240,000
Sindh: 54,000
AJK: 27,000
Balochistan: 7,000
Islamabad: 6,000

*Top countries:*
Saudi Arabia: 470,000
UAE: 119,000
Oman: 77,000
Qatar: 51,634
Malaysia: 5000
Romania: 3160
UK: 2500
Kuwait: 2000
Iraq: 2000
USA: 700
Japan; 815
Spain: 677
China: 602
Germany: 497
Sudan: 478
Italy: 292
Turkey: 136

COMMENT:
"Too much dependency on Saudia; we are way behind in the USA, as 100,000 Indians yearly move to USA while 700 Pakistanis go."
Focus needed on relevant skills training (productivity value-addition) and failitation both for ME and the West...

Shared by despardes.com | Home & Abroad
Data sourced from: Economy of Pakistan 

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 22, 2023 at 7:29pm

During the year 2022 (December), 832,339 Pakistanis proceeded abroad for the purpose of employment.

https://beoe.gov.pk/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=b1b4890b1c9705af3b244646c1...

Since inception of the Bureau in the year 1971, more than 10 million emigrants have been provided overseas employment duly registered with the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment. During the year 2015, highest number of Pakistanis(946,571) proceeded abroad for the purpose of employment. During the year 2022 (December), 832,339 Pakistanis proceeded abroad for the purpose of employment.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 24, 2023 at 2:32pm

#Japan's #demographic crisis. More retirees, fewer workers. Japan has one of the lowest #birth rates in the world, with the Ministry of #Health predicting it will record fewer than 800,000 births in 2022 for the first time since records began in 1899. https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/23/asia/japan-kishida-birth-rate-popula...

—
Japan’s prime minister issued a dire warning about the country’s population crisis on Monday, saying it was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” due to the falling birth rate.

In a policy address to lawmakers, Fumio Kishida said it was a case of solving the issue “now or never,” and that it “simply cannot wait any longer.”

“In thinking of the sustainability and inclusiveness of our nation’s economy and society, we place child-rearing support as our most important policy,” the prime minister said.

Kishida added that he wants the government to double its spending on child-related programs, and that a new government agency would be set up in April to focus on the issue.

Japan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, with the Ministry of Health predicting it will record fewer than 800,000 births in 2022 for the first time since records began in 1899.

The country also has one of the highest life expectancies in the world; in 2020, nearly one in 1,500 people in Japan were age 100 or older, according to government data.

These trends have driven a growing demographic crisis, with a rapidly aging society, a shrinking workforce and not enough young people to fill the gaps in the stagnating economy.

Experts point to several factors behind the low birth rate. The country’s high cost of living, limited space and lack of child care support in cities make it difficult to raise children, meaning fewer couples are having kids. Urban couples are also often far from extended family who could help provide support.

Attitudes toward marriage and starting families have also shifted in recent years, with more couples putting off both during the pandemic.

Some point to the pessimism young people in Japan hold toward the future, many frustrated with work pressure and economic stagnation.

Japan’s economy has stalled since its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. The country’s GDP growth slowed from 4.9% in 1990 to 0.3% in 2019, according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, the average real annual household income declined from 6.59 million yen ($50,600) in 1995 to 5.64 million yen ($43,300) in 2020, according to 2021 data from the country’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

The government has launched various initiatives to address the population decline over the past few decades, including new policies to enhance child care services and improve housing facilities for families with children. Some rural towns have even begun paying couples who live there to have children.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 16, 2023 at 10:38am

Pakistan brain drain accelerates in latest threat to ailing economy
Experts warn of talent erosion after nearly 1m workers left in 2022

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Pakistan-brain-drain-accelerates-in...

Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis are leaving for jobs abroad amid the country's financial and security woes -- a brain drain that threatens to further damage the struggling economy.

Figures from the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment show that 832,339 Pakistanis went overseas for work in 2022, the most since 2016 and the third-highest tally on record. Saudi Arabia was the most preferred destination, attracting 514,909.

Ahmad Jamal, an immigration lawyer in Quetta, said the actual number of people leaving is much larger since the data only covers work visas. He said many categories of emigrants are not included, such as those traveling out on permanent residency visas, student visas and family settlement visas.

The dire state of the Pakistani economy offers few reasons to stay. It is on the verge of collapse, with foreign exchange reserves down to $2.9 billion, enough to cover barely three weeks of imports. Inflation hit 27.6% on the year in January. Per capita income stands at $1,658.

Last week, talks with the International Monetary Fund for the revival of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility -- vital for keeping the country afloat -- ended inconclusively.

Young Pakistanis, who account for the majority of the population, face bleak prospects. Pakistan's National Human Development Report in 2017 said 64% were younger than 30, while 29% were between the ages of 15 and 29.

"From security to the economy there are many repelling factors, which push youngsters like me away from my homeland," said Atiya Khan, a 25-year business development professional who has been living in the United Arab Emirates with her parents for two decades. She said she does not want to go back to Pakistan and is looking for options to settle in the West.

Tania Baloch, a journalist who previously published a magazine called Balochistan Inside in Karachi, emigrated to Canada a couple of years ago. "I left Pakistan because the future of my kids was not secure there," she said.

Such security concerns have only grown recently, with a surge in terrorism. But many worry that the exodus, particularly skilled workers who accounted for about 90,000 of the departures in 2022, will only compound Pakistan's problems.

Yousaf Nazar, a London-based economist formerly with Citigroup, said anecdotal evidence suggests that Pakistan's business graduates do relatively better abroad. "If some of them leave, it makes the capacity issue [in Pakistan's economy] even worse," he told Nikkei.

Young people are not the only ones rushing for the exit.

Multiple immigration experts said people in their 40s and 50s are also trying to move out of the country.

Jamal, the Quetta lawyer who deals with dozens of hopeful migrants on a monthly basis, said many of his customers are middle-aged or older. "It's unbelievable that a rising number of relatively older people are seriously exploring options to move out of Pakistan due to security and economic issues," he said.

Jamal added that most of the people are liquidating their assets or borrowing loans in Pakistan for immigration and leaving with no intention of returning.

"I know people who once settled abroad and then returned to Pakistan to serve their country," he added. "Now they are also doing their best to revive their immigration status and move out of the country again."

Some downplay the issue. A government official dealing with immigration, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media, argued that the issue is being blown out of proportion.

He said that "800,000 moving, out of a 220 million population, barely makes 0.4% and hence it's not as big an issue as the media is making it."

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 16, 2023 at 11:07am

Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Report on NRIs (Non-resident Indians) and POIs (Persons of Indian Origin)

https://mea.gov.in/images/attach/NRIs-and-PIOs_1.pdf

POIs: 13.5 million

NRIs: 18.7 million

Total: 32.2 million

Top destinations:

USA 4.5 million

UAE 3.5 million

Malaysia 3 million

Saudi Arabia 2.6 million

Myanmar 2 million

UK 1.8 million

Canada 1.6 million

Sri Lanka 1.6 million

South Africa 1.6 million

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 17, 2023 at 4:50pm

Why are women in #China not having more babies despite gov't incentives? With rapidly #aging and declining #population and slowing #economic growth, China’s leaders are asking #women to have three children again, but it's too late. #economy #fertility https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/17/why-are-women-in-china-not-h...

Fewer people might mean slower growth in China, which will be felt by the U.S. and beyond.

“They’ve now become, you know, the center of the global manufacturing superhighway and are typically the largest contributor to growth every year,” said Scott Kennedy with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C.

Chinese officials often credit the so-called one-child policy for preventing over 400 million births, but some analysts say China’s population would have declined regardless.

“It’s just simply a rule across all countries, that as you urbanize, and as you get a more educated female population that enters the workforce, fertility numbers fall,” Kennedy said.

-------

The number of Chinese workers is already declining; according to the World Bank, in 2001, China had 10 workers to support one retiree.

“In 2020, that was down to five working folks for each retiree and by 2050 it’ll be down to two,” Kennedy said.

He believes China still has time to offset the effects of population decline, including by boosting productivity, increasing the retirement age and lifting restrictions on people from rural areas to freely settle in cities with their families.

“I don’t think the problem has become so severe that demography is destiny, and China is destined to radically slow down and its chances of becoming an economic superpower breaking out of the middle income trap have been dashed,” Kennedy said.

“[But] these are pretty significant challenges.”


------

28-year-old Joy Yu’s parents each had three siblings. As they were growing up in the 1970s, the Chinese government started to limit the number of babies born.

Government statistics show on average a woman in China went from having about three babies in the late 1970s to just one.

Four decades on, China’s leaders are asking women to have three children again, which doesn’t sit well for Yu, an only child.

“For me to give birth to three children, my future husband must be rich enough to make sure I can live well without a job. This is a big challenge,” Yu said.

Last year, China’s population dropped for the first time in six decades by 850,000. That still leaves the country with 1.41 billion people but if the decline continues, there will be multiple impacts on the economy.

China began enforcing birth limits in the late 1970s when the country was poor and there were too many mouths to feed.

In a Chinese propaganda film called the Disturbance of Gan Quan Village, the birth restrictions were justified on economic grounds.

“We should put our energy into getting rich rather than keep having children,” says one woman in the film.

She’s sitting among a group of women picking corn kernels off the cob. “Aren’t we getting poorer with each child we have,” she says. The rest of the group nods in agreement.

Chinese leaders enforced, sometimes brutally, the so-called one-child policy in 1979, just as the country was coming out of the tumultuous Cultural Revolution.

“The post-[Chairman] Mao leadership thought that economic development would be the new basis for the party’s political legitimacy and based on pseudo-scientific and demographic projections, limiting birth to one child per married heterosexual couple,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.

There were exceptions. Some ethnic minority groups could have up to three children. People from rural areas could try for a second child if their first-born was not a boy. Later, if both parents had no siblings they could have two children. Starting in 2016, China raised the birth limit for everyone to two children, but there was no sustained baby bump.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 25, 2023 at 10:53am

Remittances Sent By Pakistani Expats Reach $2.5 Billion In March: Central Bank
Pakistan and the IMF have been negotiating the programme's resumption for months but have yet to reach an agreement

https://www.outlookindia.com/business/remittances-sent-by-pakistani...

Pakistani expatriates sent home $2.5 billion in remittances in March, a seven-month high, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Monday, as the cash-strapped country tried to avert a major economic crisis. The data from the central bank showed that the inflow of workers’ remittances was 27 per cent higher compared to February. However, it was 11 per cent lower compared to March 2022, Geo News reported.

Pakistan, currently tackling a major economic crisis, is grappling with high external debt, a weak local currency and dwindling foreign exchange reserves. According to the report, historical trends suggest that Pakistanis living abroad sent record-high remittances ahead of Eid festivals each year.

According to the report, inflows remained comparatively high as non-resident Pakistanis used legal channels to send funds to their family, given the shrinking gap between rates in the interbank and the open market. Pakistani expatriates in Saudi Arabia topped the list of remittances by sending an amount of $563.9 million in March. However, it was 24.04 per cent lower than the $454.6 million received in February, the report said.


Pakistanis living in the UAE sent home 25.52 per cent more as receipts increased from $406.7 million to $324 million. Remittances from overseas Pakistanis in the UK increased 33.12 per cent to $422 million, the report said, adding that they sent $317 million in February. Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited, Tahir Abbas, said that the monthly increase in the remittances is due to the Ramzan factor that usually fetches higher flows due to family commitments, welfare, and charity, among other things.

"The flows in the upcoming months are expected to remain elevated due to another Eid falling by the end of this fiscal year," Abbas was quoted as saying in the report. Terming the increase a “good omen”, Head of Research at Pakistan-Kuwait Investment Company, Samiullah Tariq, said, “Remittances number is highest for past seven months; however, this year Ramzan has started earlier which is why remittance inflow increased earlier than last year,” the report said.

According to a prominent US-based think tank, the United States Institute of Peace, Pakistan needs to repay a whopping $77.5 billion in external debt from April 2023 to June 2026. It added that the cash-strapped country might face disruptive effects if it ultimately defaults. Pakistan is awaiting a much-needed $1.1 billion tranche of funding from the Washington-based International Monetary Fund, originally due to be disbursed in November last year.

The funds are part of a $6.5 billion bailout package the IMF approved in 2019, which analysts say is critical if Pakistan is to avoid defaulting on external debt obligations. The IMF programme, signed in 2019, will expire on June 30, 2023, and under the set guidelines, the programme cannot be extended beyond the deadline. Pakistan and the IMF have been negotiating the programme's resumption for months but have yet to reach an agreement.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 26, 2023 at 4:07pm

Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings
2021 was impacted by #Covid restrictions! Hence the low number for #Pakistan !! All middle income developing countries are now experiencing “brain drain” as the young middle class has the resources to travel for better available opportunities overseas.

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1661959642635960320?s=20


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Pakistan's brain drain crisis escalates as thousands leave

https://www.dw.com/en/pakistans-brain-drain-crisis-escalates-as-tho...


By Zoya Nazir in Islamabad | Darko Janjevic


Many educated Pakistanis are looking to move abroad as living costs continue to climb and political unrest deepens in their home country.

Sana Hashim, who works at a digital marketing startup in Islamabad, is facing a dilemma: She wants to join thousands of highly qualified workers who have already moved out of Pakistan, but is worried about abandoning her family.

"I have applied to a few firms in the Middle East and received interview calls, too," the 29-year-old told DW. "But, even if I get a job, I can't just pack my bags and leave. Who is going to look after my aging parents?"

In 2021, about 225,000 Pakistanis left the country, but the number nearly tripled to 765,000 last year, according to the official numbers published by The Express Tribune daily.

The 2022 numbers include 92,000 of highly educated professionals such as doctors, engineers, information technology experts and accountants. Some of them go to the West, others to Middle Eastern countries such Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

And the trend shows no sign of abating in 2023. The latest data indicate that nearly 200,000 people left in the first three months of the year. Nasir Khan, an experienced immigration agent working in Islamabad, told DW that he has never seen such a surge before.

"It's not just the younger lot — people of all ages turn up to my office daily," he said. "They are so tired and frustrated; it literally seems they want to run away from here."

Salaries eaten by galloping inflation
IT specialist Nouman Shah told DW that he took the plunge and moved to Saudi Arabia last year because of the rising living costs in Pakistan.

"My low earnings were inadequate to run a household there, while a job prospect in Riyadh was too good to pass up," he said.

For years, people in Pakistan have had to contend with joblessness, low wages and limited prospects to advance their careers. Now, the country is also facing a deep political and economic crisis. In addition to the power struggle between the supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the current government led by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif — a struggle that has repeatedly turned violent — the value of the Pakistani rupee has been plummeting, and the government is struggling to secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund. The cost of imports such as crude oil has also skyrocketed, stoking inflation.

According to JS Global Securities, inflation in the country is projected to reach over 37% year-on-year in May, the highest since July 1965.

"A salaried individual like myself is really struggling because prices have skyrocketed in recent months," Sana Hashim said. "My income hasn't increased, but the inflation has."

Crisis reaches students outside Pakistan
Fears of a deteriorating economic situation have also put Pakistanis studying abroad in distress. Formerly, international students would return to the country to work, but now, with fewer jobs available, many opt to stay in their host countries and apply for permanent residency.


Parents are also finding it more challenging to transfer money to their children who are enrolled in universities abroad, as a result of the devaluation of the Pakistani currency.

"My parents are having a harder time affording my education in Australia, but I hope the decision will pay off when I finally obtain an Australian passport," student Ujala Tariq said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 26, 2023 at 6:30pm

Why Americans Are Having Fewer Babies - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-americans-are-having-fewer-babies-...

The number of babies born in the U.S. started plummeting 15 years ago and hasn’t recovered since. What looked at first like a temporary lull triggered by the 2008 financial crisis has stretched into a prolonged fertility downturn. Provisional monthly figures show that there were about 3.66 million babies born in the U.S. last year, a decline of 15% since 2007, even though there are 9% more women in their prime childbearing years.

The decline has demographers puzzled and economists worried. America’s longstanding geopolitical advantages, they say, are underpinned by a robust pool of young people. Without them, the U.S. economy will be weighed down by a worsening shortage of workers who can fill jobs and pay into programs like Social Security that care for the elderly. At the heart of the falling birthrate is a central question: Do American women simply want fewer children? Or are life circumstances impeding them from having the children that they desire?


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To maintain current population levels, the total fertility rate—a snapshot of the average number of babies women have over their lifetime—must stay at a “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per woman. In 2021, the U.S. rate was 1.66. Had fertility rates stayed at their 2007 peak, the U.S. would now have 9.6 million more kids, according to Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire.



Federal agencies are treating the slump like a temporary downturn. The Social Security Administration’s board of trustees projects that the total fertility rate will slowly climb to 2 by 2056 and hold there until the end of the century. Yet it’s been over a decade since fertility rates reached that level. Last year there were 2.8 workers for every Social Security recipient. That ratio is projected to shrink to 2.2 by 2045, roughly two-thirds what it was in 2000.



Some other developed countries are in a far deeper childbearing trough than the U.S. In South Korea, the total fertility rate hit a world record low of 0.84 in 2020 and has since sagged to 0.78. Italy’s rate slid to 1.24 last year. China’s population fell in 2022 for the first time in decades because its fertility rate has been far below the replacement rate for years. Its two-century reign as the world’s most populous country is expected to end this year when India overtakes it, if it hasn’t already.

In a recent note to clients, Neil Howe, a demographer at Hedgeye Risk Management, pointed to a World Bank report showing that the 2020s could be a second consecutive “lost decade” for global economic growth, in large part because of worsening demographics. By 2026 or 2027, he wrote, the growth rate of the working-age population in the entire high-income and emerging-market world will turn from slightly positive to slightly negative, reversing a durable driver of economic growth since the Industrial Revolution.



This shift will make the U.S. more dependent on immigration to supply enough workers to keep the economy humming. Immigrants accounted for 80% of U.S. population growth last year, census figures show, up from 35% just over a decade ago. Yet the number of young immigrant women coming to the U.S. has diminished, Johnson said, and the decline in fertility has been greatest among Hispanics.

Having fewer children has already changed the social fabric of the country’s schools, neighborhoods and churches. J.P. De Gance, president and founder of Communio, a nonprofit that helps churches encourage marriage, said that lower marriage and birth rates are one of the largest drivers of the decline in religious affiliation that’s left pews empty across the country. That matters for the whole community, De Gance said, because churches give lonely people a place to form friendships, as well as feeding hungry people and running schools that fill gaps in public education. “When that’s diminished, the entire culture’s diminished,” he said.

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